We study the fiscal consequences of large military buildups. To do so, we assemble the Global Budget Database, a comprehensive dataset of disaggregated central government finances for 20 countries from 1870 to 2022. We identify 114 episodes of military spending booms, in peace and war, and...

• Europe must urgently strengthen its defence capabilities and secure strategic autonomy to avoid vulnerability to external pressures. • The proposal outlines a European Future of Defence Architecture focusing on next generation military technologies and strategic enablers (like AI, cyber,...

Germany is facing a security policy Zeitenwende whose industrial dimension has not yet been sufficiently addressed. The war in Ukraine, rising military threats in Europe, and the long-term underfunding of the German Armed Forces have exposed the limits of existing defence industrial capacity,...

US defence policy is characterised by contradictions that are on display once again in the Trump administration’s latest strategy documents. The reasons for this go far beyond the president’s erratic behaviour. At the core lies the unanswered question of how the United States should deal...

The member states of the European Union are once again arguing about money. More specifically, they are arguing about how much they want to spend on defence, where this money should come from and whether they should spend it jointly. That Europe needs to defend itself better is not in dispute in...

Civil wars often erode state sovereignty, as institutions are replaced or co-opted by armed groups that establish informal governance structures. Among these, rebel taxation emerges as a key tool for financing wartime activities and administering territories. We explore whether rebel taxation...

European security is in danger. Despite some successes, overall progress in strengthening defences has been slow. Europeans still face critical shortfalls in areas such as long-range strike, air defence, intelligence and surveillance. Without more coordination, Europeans will waste much of their...

Europe's fragmented defence procurement markets undermine Europe's security efforts. Larger procurement markets, by contrast, deliver sharper competition, lower prices, and stronger incentives for specialisation and technological progress. Using data from the EU's Tender Electronic Daily (TED),...

This study endeavours to investigate the effect of military expenditure on economic growth in ten major countries of the world, which collectively contributed 75.2 per cent to global military expenditure in 2022. The period of study is 30 years, from 1992 to 2022, determined solely based on the...

Research background: At the NATO Wales Summit in 2014, European allies agreed to spend at least 2% of GDP on defence.1 However, the break-out of the Russo-Ukrainian war increased EU countries efforts to spend more on military capability not only because of solidarity in the alliance, but also as...

We provide the first global, long-run analysis of how governments fund and de-fund military spending. Constructing a panel of 167 countries from 1817 to 2024, we estimate fiscal responses to armaments and disarmaments, including wartime shifts. Deficit spending is the primary financing policy,...

The aim of this study is to analyze the effects of terrorism on gender inequality in politics for a panel of 180 countries over the period 2000-2020. Using generalized method of moments in a system, the results obtained reveal that terrorism reduces women's political representation, thereby...

In 2024, total defence expenditure by the 27 EU Member States reached €343 billion, marking a 19% increase from 2023, bringing defence expenditure to 1.9% of GDP. Estimated data suggests that Member States may reach beyond the 2% NATO guideline in 2025, to €392 billion (current prices,...

In 2024, total defence expenditure by the 27 EU Member States reached €343 billion, marking a 19% increase from 2023, bringing defence expenditure to 1.9% of GDP. Estimated data suggests that Member States may reach beyond the 2% NATO guideline in 2025, to €392 billion (current prices,...

National defence is a quintessential public good which generates welfare but does not have a market price to be used for its valuation. This study uses non-market valuation, namely a discrete choice experiment, to enhance the understanding of how individuals' perceptions of threat influence...

Using a short- and long-term macroeconomic forecasts, we estimate the cost of the Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine for countries in Eastern Europe, Caucasus, and Central Asia. Shortly after the Russian attack, the projected cost (cumulative over six years) stood at $2.44 trillion for the...

Expanding military personnel and expenditure depends on public support and social legitimacy. Crisis events such as 9/11 and the 2014 annexation of Crimea have influenced public attitudes toward military investment, with support intensifying significantly after Russia's full-scale invasion of...

Operational autonomy should be achieved through developing integrated command systems, rather than simply procuring weapons: great powers direct operations. Direct deterrence must be achieved through investments in conventional forces, which can reduce but not replace reliance on US nuclear...

Research & development (R&D) subsidies, especially defense R&D spending, raise private R&D investment (a crowd-in effect). Public R&D funding increases employment without driving up wages. Supported industries see gains in productivity. International spillovers amplify the impact across...

This paper investigates the expansion of EU military activities, involving the European Commission, other EU-related institutions and Member States. Expenditure on EU military programmes - defence-related R&D, arms production, joint procurement, military mobility, and the supply of lethal...

This report updates and expands the data-driven work of our initial study from September 2024, which concluded that Europe would only be fit for war in several decades. We show that the situation today is even more concerning if Europe aims to be fit for war by 2030. First, Russia continues to...

Europe faces a dual crisis of growing security threats and declining economic competitiveness. Increased defence spending offers an opportunity to address both challenges. Through initiatives such as ReArm Europe and NATO's 5% pledge, EU Member States are committing substantial resources to...

Europe faces a dual crisis of growing security threats and declining economic competitiveness. Increased defence spending offers an opportunity to address both challenges. Through initiatives such as ReArm Europe and NATO's 5% pledge, EU Member States are committing substantial resources to...

This Economic Brief analyses the euro area fiscal stance, i.e. the impulse that national and the EU budgets provide to the euro area economy, with a focus on the 2024-2026 period. In the euro area, the European Central Bank (ECB) is entrusted with the objective of maintaining price stability...

Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine marked the start of a prolonged confrontation between Moscow and Europe - one that is fundamentally reshaping the parameters of European security. The return of Donald Trump to the White House and his stated intent to quickly end the war in Ukraine and put...

Europe can no longer rely on the United States for its defence but is currently lacking essential capabilities to assure security itself. European countries should not give up on NATO but seek to close capability gaps by developing the European defence industrial base. The EU can play an...

The design of an operationally and militarily prepared Bundeswehr of the future requires the consideration of multiple facets. Its operation requires reliable access to economic resources (labour, capital, land) and their efficient management. This completely addresses the contradiction between...

Various options are being discussed to increase Germany's defense capabilities. Increasing the size of the Bundeswehr is proving difficult, and compulsory military service hardly seems feasible for economic and socio-political reasons. A European army and technological alternatives such as...

The European Union is grappling with the challenge of increasing defence expenditure while maintaining fiscal discipline under the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP). The European Commission has proposed activating the national escape clause available under the SGP to accommodate defence spending...

Europe must take more responsibility for its defence, if necessary without the United States, given Washington’s volatility. In March 2025, the European Union (EU) launched a series of initiatives to strengthen defence industry and defence policy cooperation. With these new instruments also...

Peace does not rest on the goodwill of others but on our capacity to defend ourselves and deter threats. The full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 shattered whatever i l lus ions rema ined about Europe's immediate environment. Russia is intent on causing maximum harm to Ukrainians while running...