This paper documents the function and use of the Gretl function package VCwrapper.pdf that implements the VC method for estimating time-varying coefficients in linear models as described in Schlicht (2021). It builds on the VCC program by Schlicht (2021a), is easy to use and highly configurable....

The aim of this study is to test and compare the efficient market hypothesis, in its weak form, on the stock markets of Botswana, Egypt, Kenya, Morocco, Nigeria, South Africa, Japan, the UK and the USA from 2 September 2019 to 2 September 2020. This study is based on the following research...

We analyse micro-level data concerning four financial variables in Sveriges Riksbank's Prospera Survey to evaluate the accuracy of forecasts provided by professionals active in the Swedish fixed-income market. Our results indicate that for the SEK/EUR and SEK/USD exchange rates, and the...

This paper examines the effectiveness of the Taylor rule in contemporary times by investigating the exchange rate forecastability of selected four Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) member countries vis-à-vis the U.S. It employs various Taylor rule models with a...

Purpose: Both short sellers and margin traders believe in active investment. However, they have the opposite opinions about the prediction of future share price direction: while short sellers are those who predict future price declines, investors buying on margin are those who predict future...

Aim/purpose - The aim of this paper is to verify whether extremely high values of market value ratios are the symptoms of informational inefficiency of the market in a weak form. The authors intend to examine whether these phenomena co-occur with each other. Design/methodology/approach -...

In this paper, we analyse how financial market analysts' expectations in the Czech National Bank's Financial Market Inflation Expectations survey perform relative to the random-walk forecast when it comes to predicting five financial variables. Using data from 2001 to 2022, our results indicate...

We investigate how individuals use measures of apparent predictability from price charts to predict future market prices. Subjects in our experiment predict both random walk times series, as in the seminal work by Bloomfied and Hales (2002) (BH), and stock price time series. We successfully...

We investigate how individuals use measures of apparent predictability from price charts to predict future market prices. Subjects in our experiment predict both random walk times series, as in the seminal work by Bloomfield & Hales (2002) (BH), and stock price time series. We successfully...

We examine a dynamic disclosure model in which the value of a firm follows a random walk. Every period, with some probability, the manager learns the value and decides whether to disclose it. The manager maximizes the market perception of the firm's value, which is based on disclosed...

As long as financial markets are concerned, for many years’ economists, statisticians and financial analyst have been interested in developing and testing models of stock price behavior and their forecast. This study examines whether the Indian stock market is efficient if the stock returns...

Investigating if the market is efficient is an old issue as market efficiency is imperative for channeling investments to best-valued projects and its importance endures. There is contradictory evidence in the literature provided by empirical researches. The primary purpose of this research has...

Contagious diseases can spread quickly in human populations, either through airborne transmission or if some other spreading vectors are abundantly accessible. They can be particularly devastating if the impact on individuals’ health has severe consequences on the number of hospitalizations or...

This paper presents unprecedented exchange rate forecasting results, based upon a new model that approximates the gap between the fundamental equilibrium exchange rate and the actual exchange rate with the long-maturity forward exchange rate. The theoretical derivation of our forecasting...

We adapt the multifractal random walk model by Bacry et al. (2001) to realized volatilities (denoted RV-MRW) and take stock of recent theoretical insights on this model in Duchon et al. (2012) to derive forecasts of financial volatility. Moreover, we propose a new extension of the binomial...

Modern risk modelling approaches deal with vectors of multiple components. The components could be, for example, returns of financial instruments or losses within an insurance portfolio concerning different lines of business. One of the main problems is to decide if there is any type of...

Despite the rise in markets for cryptocurrencies at an outstanding pace, with consistently high trading volume and market capitalization, the increasing volatility of the virtual currencies raise various concerns. One of the major concerns is regarding (in)efficiency, viz. whether there exist...

We construct a unique data set to analyze whether or not a large temporary shock had an impact on German city growth and city size distribution. Following recent work by Davis and Weinstein (2001) on Japan, we take the strategic bombing of German cities during WWII as our example of such a...

We propose a nonlinear econometric model that can explain both the observed volatility and the persistence of real and nominal exchange rates. The model implies that near equilibrium, the nominal exchange rate will be well approximated by a random walk process. Large departures from...

Conventional explanations of the near random walk behavior of real exchange rates rely on near random walk behavior in the underlying fundamentals (e.g.. tastes and technology). The present paper offers an alternative rationale, based on a fixed-factor neoclassical model with traded and...

The backbone of financial risk modeling in finance over a long time period of more than a century, the random walk hypothesis has shown substantial variations in its structure throughout its history. In this article, I revisit the history of the random walk model in finance by introducing a new...

This paper examines the efficient market hypothesis by applying monthly data for 15 international equity markets. With the exceptions of Canada and the U.S., the null for the absence of autocorrelations of stock returns is rejected for 13 out of 15 markets. The evidence also rejects the...

The seminal study of Meese and Rogoff (1983) on exchange rate forecastability had a great impact on the international finance literature. The authors showed that exchange rate forecasts based on structural models are worse than a naive random walk. This result is known as the Meese-Rogoff (MR)...

We perform variance ratio tests based on non-parametric methods to detect the size of the random walk component of the US art auction prices. The past 134 years of the US art prices exhibit large transitory component (72%) and based on this, the random walk hypothesis does not hold. However,...

This note investigates the spurious regression where each of the regressand and the regressor follows a random walk with zero, nonzero local, or nonzero constant drift. In the existing literature of spurious regression, both the regressand and regressor have zero or constant drifts. We consider...

An efficient stock market plays an important role in stimulating economic development through providing a channel for mobilising domestic savings and facilitating the allocation of financial resources from dormant to more productive activities. This paper evaluates the Ugandan Securities...

We use the expected lifetime range (ELR) ratio based on the extreme values of asset prices to detect the presence of mean reversion in stock returns. We find that the actual cross-sectional average of the ELR ratio is significantly less than its bootstrap means, thereby indicating a considerable...

In this paper the authors set out to date-stamp periods of US housing price explosivity for the period 1830–2013. They make use of several robust techniques that allow them to identify such periods by determining when prices start to exhibit explosivity with respect to its past behaviour and...

The U.S. prewar output series exhibit smaller shock-persistence than postwar-series. Some studies suggest that this may be due to linear interpolation used to generate missing prewar data. Monte Carlo simulations that support this view generate large standard-errors, making such inference...

The U.S. prewar output series exhibit smaller shock-persistence than postwar-series. Some studies suggest this may be due to linear interpolation used to generate missing prewar data. Monte Carlo simulations that support this view generate large standard-errors, making such inference imprecise....