This paper aims to deliver a comprehensive analysis of the theories and concepts that have formed the foundational link between two separate academic fields: finance and economics, resulting in the emergent field of financial economics. The main schools of thought can be divided, with a...

In the long run, we are all dead. Nonetheless, when studying the short-run dynamics of economic models, it is crucial to consider boundary conditions that govern long-run, forward-looking behavior, such as transversality conditions. We demonstrate that machine learning (ML) can automatically...

We study the determinants of US dollar demand across market participants and traded instruments using survey-based exchange rate and macroeconomic expectations. Leveraging granular FX trading data and forward looking expectations, we present three results. First, currency investors increase...

Expectations are central to models of economic and financial decision-making. Yet in practice, individuals are often inattentive and, when asked, report fragile, context-dependent expectations that are only weakly linked to decisions. This raises the question to what extent they hold such...

We propose a novel approach that directly embeds rational expectations (RE) into a low-dimensional structural vector autoregression (SVAR) without the need for any mapping to a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model. Beginning from a fully specified “consensus” structural model,...

We document novel stylized facts regarding updating of households’ inflation expectations. Using two randomized controlled trials fielded in the US and Germany where signals in the form of professionals’ inflation forecasts have different perceived levels of precision, we show that...

This work highlights a previously overlooked factor that contributes to bias in private inflation forecasts-ignorance of confidential monetary rules. Additionally, it examines how this ignorance indirectly affects policy rate settings. The model proposed reconciles biases in two key forecast...

Economic narratives are pervasive in the public discourse and can shape individual behavior. But so far we know very little about whether households actually demand and value narratives as information. We combine a comprehensive expert survey with a large-scale nationally representative...

Economic narratives are pervasive in the public discourse and can shape individual behavior. But so far we know very little about whether households actually demand and value narratives as information. We combine a comprehensive expert survey with a large-scale nationally representative...

Economic narratives are pervasive in the public discourse and can shape individual behavior. But so far we know very little about whether households actually demand and value narratives as information. We combine a comprehensive expert survey with a large-scale nationally representative...

Over a quarter of the world’s population lives in countries that have undertaken transitions from central planning to some form of market-based coordination. These transitions entail far-reaching and complex economic and institutional changes and have had widely divergent trajectories....

We experimentally evaluate three behavioral models of expectation formation that predict overreaction to new information: overconfidence in private signals, misperceptions about the persistence of the data-generating process (DGP), and diagnostic expectations. In our main experiment,...