This paper studies how unemployment benefits affect aggregate outcomes through general equilibrium effects. First, we document that lower unemployment benefits tend to reduce the real interest rate in a structural vector autoregression with narrative sign restrictions. Young workers experience...

This study aimed to examine the long and short-run relationships between credit market development and agricultural production using the Autoregressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) Bounds test for cointegration, as well as the direction of causality by using the Granger causality test. The results of...

This study models a representative agent with generalized disappointment aversion preferences in an endowment economy. This model addresses the average upward slope in U.S. real bond yields, equity premium puzzle, and equity volatility puzzle. We integrate a two-state Markov switching process...

This paper attempts to resolve several intriguing observations. First, there is an unusually high correlation between the inflation-protected and nominal interest rates when the changes in the nominal interest rates are predominantly driven by inflationary pressure. This observation appears to...

Updated estimates of real equilibrium interest rates in the euro area, derived from eight prominent methodologies proposed in the academic literature, deliver a wide range of estimates, partly because they vary in time horizon and economic complexity. By the end of 2024, shorter-term equilibrium...

We set up a life cycle model with real interest rate risk to demonstrate that real interest rates have implications for optimal household consumption and investments. Lower interest rates lead to higher optimal stock investments and lower consumption. Ignoring the time-varying nature of real...

We argue that a long-term low real rate environment can increase labor income inequality, amplify the emergence of the working rich, and reduce intergenerational mobility. We provide a simple model with endogenous human capital accumulation and credit constraints to demonstrate this causal link....

The natural rate of interest, often interpreted as the equilibrium real interest rate, serves as a critical benchmark for evaluating the stance of monetary policy. This paper investigates the natural rate of interest in Uzbekistan using three econometric approaches: the HLW-type model1 , a...

Using a novel macro-finance model we infer jointly the equilibrium real interest rate r*t, trend inflation, interest rate expectations, and bond risk premia for the United States. In the model r*t plays a dual macro-finance role: as the benchmark real interest rate that closes the output gap and...

The study aims to examine the relationships between variables from different perspectives by using Turkey's Real exchange rate (TL/USD), Real interest rate and Consumer price index data. Data from 2012M7 to 2021M12 were used in the study. In order to examine the relationships between the...

This paper empirically examines the effect of population growth on real interest rates. Although this effect is well founded in macroeconomic theory, the corresponding empirical results have been rather tenuous. Demographic interest rate theories are typically based on long-term relationships...

Recent inflationary trends have reignited debates about the natural real interest rate (r∗). This paper reviews the literature on estimating r∗ and its drivers, highlighting significant uncertainty and variability in estimates. The challenges in achieving consensus on r∗ is mostly due to...

We employ a new class of general equilibrium models with partially unfunded debt, as proposed in Bianchi et al. (2023), to study the relation between real interest rates and fiscal policy. Unfunded fiscal shocks generate a decline in real interest rates, while funded fiscal shocks cause an...

Long-term borrowing costs have been on a path of near continuous decline for the last several decades, with huge consequences for asset values, government finances, borrowers and savers. To shed light on why, we have estimated a global model that brings together an extensive set of drivers of...

This study aimed to examine the long and short-run relationships between credit market development and agricultural production using the Autoregressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) Bounds test for cointegration, as well as the direction of causality by using the Granger causality test. The results of...