Search Results - subject_exact:"Rendite"

Spillover effects in green and traditional assets during global crises : evidence from TVP-VAR analysis

Chiaka, Felicia; Deanita, Gwenda; Fitriya Fauzi - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015617060

When oil moves the market : asymmetric tail effects of oil price shocks on stock returns in major oil-producing countries

Al-Jalahma, Abdulla; Al-Mohamad, Somar; Jreisat, Ammar … - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015617386

Green bond market performance : does investor sentiment contagion matter?

Le Thuy Duong Ha; Hoque, Ariful; Le, Thi - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015618423

Hydrogen in financial markets : a hybrid asset at the crossroads of technology and clean energy

Couture, Emilie - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015618477

A predictive analytics approach for forecasting global stock index returns using deep learning techniques

Hu, Liang; Shen, Yinru - 2026

Accurately predicting stock index returns remains a critical yet complex task due to the inherent volatility of financial markets and the intricate temporal dependencies within financial time series. This study presents a robust machine learning framework to forecast the relative returns of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015654339

Investor valuation, taxation, and time varying expected returns

Bjerksund, Petter; Schjelderup, Guttorm - 2026

This paper analyzes the valuation of publicly traded stocks subject to capital income and wealth taxation when expected returns are time-varying. We show that, in an efficient capital market, investor valuation coincides with the market price under a broad class of tax systems, including accrued...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015654699

The effects of increased Korea Treasury Bond issuance on the yield curve

Kim, Meeroo; Hong, Jong Soo - 2026

This study examines the impact of the sharp increase in Korea Treasury Bond (KTB) issuance following the COVID-19 crisis and analyzes the effects of bond buybacks as a policy countermeasure. Using a dynamic Nelson-Siegel model with macroeconomic factors, we estimate the effects of changes in the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015654796

The importance of considering regimes in long-term asset allocation to real estate

Guidolin, Massimo; Liang, Mingwei; Petrova, Milena - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015609482

Investment with new sentiment analysis in Japanese stock market : expert knowledge can still outperform ChatGPT

Lin, Zhenwei; Nakano, Masafumi; Takahashi, Akihiko - 2026 - This version: March 4, 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015610056

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Investment with new sentiment analysis in Japanese stock market : expert knowledge can still outperform ChatGPT

Lin, Zhenwei; Nakano, Masafumi; Takahashi, Akihiko - 2025 - This version: March 27, 2025

Edition: This version: March 27, 2025

Book / Working Paper

Investment with new sentiment analysis in Japanese stock market : expert knowledge can still outperform ChatGPT

Lin, Zhenwei; Nakano, Masafumi; Takahashi, Akihiko - 2025 - This version: April 25, 2025

Edition: This version: April 25, 2025

Book / Working Paper

Evaluation and prediction of stock market crash risk in Mexico using log-periodic power-law modeling

Sunil, Suryansh; Goyal, Amit Kumar; Mahadeva, Rajesh; … - 2026

This study applies the Log-Periodic Power-Law (LPPL) framework to three major equity markets-Mexico (IPC), Brazil (IBOVESPA), and the United States (NYSE Composite)-using daily closes from 8 November 1991-30 January 2025 for IPC and NYSE, and 3 May 1993-30 January 2025 for IBOVESPA. Multi-window...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015611246

ESG and its components : impact on stock returns across firm sizes in Europe and the United States

Escobar-Saldívar, Luis Jacob; Villarreal-Samaniego, Dacio - 2026

A longstanding debate in finance concerns the impact of social responsibility actions on firms' long-term profitability. This study provides a broad analysis on the relationship between ESG, its components, and stock returns. Using a dataset that spans from December 2014 to December 2023, this...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015611256

From risk to returns : an analysis of asset quality, financial ratios, and market valuation in Indian banks

Rosario, Shireen; Mavuri, Sudha - 2026

This study investigates the interplay between asset quality, financial ratios, and market valuation in Indian commercial banks over a twelve-year period (2014-2025). Using a hybrid approach combining Structural Equation Modeling, correlation analysis, and trend evaluation, the research examines...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015611330

Performance attribution : the Harsanyi method

Acerbi, Carlo; Csóka, Péter; Herings, Peter Jean-Jacques - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015614107

Disasters, ambiguity, and crash betas

Meyerheim, Gerrit - 2026 - Original Version: October 2025, This Version: March 2026

This paper develops a tractable consumption-based asset-pricing model in an i.i.d. economy that combines rare consumption disasters with ambiguity aversion implemented as a one-period entropic tilt under CRRA utility. Closed-form expressions for the risk-free rate, equity return moments, and the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015614347

Investing outside the box : fluctuating styles of actively managed funds

Bai, Ting; Hilscher, Jens; Scherbina, Anna - 2026

Managers of actively managed funds do not maintain a constant investment style. Instead, their factor loadings change over time. These changes are especially large following quarters with extreme returns and fund flows and arise from both active portfolio reallocations and passive style drift....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015615830

Organised returns from the United Kingdom

Radziwinowiczówna, Agnieszka - 2026

Brexit has fundamentally reshaped the United Kingdom’s immigration system, yet organised returns from the UK remain strikingly under-examined. As return practices have evolved following the end of EU free movement, there is a clear need for a systematic framework that can capture this...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015615866

Short selling around news in international stock markets

Gorbenko, Arseny - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015616369

Joint extreme value-at-risk and expected shortfall dynamics with a single integrated tail shape parameter

D'Innocenzo, Enzo; Lucas, André; Schwaab, Bernd; Zhang, Xin - 2026

We propose a robust semi-parametric framework for persistent time-varying extreme tail behavior, including extreme Value-at-Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES). The framework builds on Extreme Value Theory and uses a conditional version of the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) for...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015592338

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Joint extreme value-at-risk and expected shortfall dynamics with a single integrated tail shape parameter

D'Innocenzo, Enzo; Lucas, André; Schwaab, Bernd; Zhang, Xin - 2024

Book / Working Paper

Structural drivers of growth at risk : insights from a VAR-quantile regression approach

Carboni, Giacomo; Fonseca, Luís; Fornari, Fabio; … - 2026

We investigate the impact of structural shocks on the joint distribution of future real GDP growth and inflation in the euro area. We model the conditional mean of these variables, along with selected financial indicators, using a VAR and perform quantile regressions on the VAR residuals to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015592539

Capital inflow shocks and convenience yields

Ben Zeev, Nadav; Ben-Ze'ev, Noam; Nathan, Daniel - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015593005

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Capital inflow shocks and convenience yields

Ben Zeev, Nadav; Ben-Ze'ev, Noam; Nathan, Daniel - 2025

Book / Working Paper

Fat-tailed distribution under the smooth ambiguity model

Osei, Prince - 2026

We study the ambiguity-adjusted return distribution induced by an investor with smooth ambiguity preferences 'a la Klibano! et al. (2005), who faces uncertainty about the variance of asset returns. The variance uncertainty is modeled using a gamma distribution, a second-order prior over the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015594918

Putting the "finance" into "public finance" : a theory of capital gains taxation

Aguiar, Mark; Moll, Benjamin; Scheuer, Florian - 2026 - First version: May 2024, this version: February 2026

Standard optimal capital tax theory abstracts from modeling asset prices, making it unsuitable for thinking about capital gains and wealth taxation. We study optimal redistributive taxation in an environment with asset price movements, adopting the modern finance view that asset prices fluctuate...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015596733

A rotated dynamic factor model for the yield curve : squeezing out information when it matters

Casoli, Chiara; Lucchetti, Riccardo - 2026

The yield curve is widely regarded as a powerful descriptor of the economy and market expectations. A common approach to its statistical representation relies on a small number of factors summarizing the curve, which can then be used to forecast real economic activity. We argue that optimal...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015588201

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A rotated dynamic factor model for the yield curve : squeezing out information when it matters

Casoli, Chiara; Lucchetti, Riccardo - 2026

Book / Working Paper

Forecasting mutual fund performance : combining return-based with portfolio holdings-based predictors

Müller, Sebastian; Pugachyov, Nikolay; Weigert, Florian - 2026

We introduce a simple yet powerful method for enhancing mutual fund performance prediction by combining individual predictors into a composite predictor. This composite approach integrates information from 19 well-established return-based and portfolio holdings-based predictors from the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015591032

In search of seasonality in intraday and overnight option returns

Bali, Turan G.; Goyal, Amit; Mörke, Mathis; Weigert, … - 2026

We uncover momentum and reversal patterns in half-day option returns that persist for up to at least 20 business days, with economic magnitudes of 0.22% to 0.45% per half-day. Specifically, returns show strong momentum within the same period (e.g., intraday-to-intraday) but reverse sharply...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015591093

A momentum-based normalization framework for generating profitable analyst sentiment signals

McCarthy, Shawn; Alaghband, Gita - 2026

The diverse rating scales used by brokerage firms pose significant challenges for aggregating analyst recommendations in financial research. We develop a momentum-based normalization framework that transforms heterogeneous rating changes into standardized sentiment signals using firm-relative,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015591134

Persistence in the mint stock markets : evidence from a fractional integration model

Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Gil-Alaña, Luis A.; Ojo, … - 2026

This paper investigates persistence in the MINT (Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria, Turkey) stock markets applying fractional integration methods to daily data from 1 January 2022 to 31 October 2025. Different model specifications are estimated for prices, log prices and log returns under the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015591911

Pyrrhic diversification : foreign institutional ownership and stock return sensitivity to the global financial cycle

Ambrocio, Gene; Bui, Dien Giau; Hasan, Iftekhar; Lin, … - 2026

We demonstrate that foreign institutional ownership (FIO) is associated with stronger stock return sensitivity to the Global Financial Cycle (GFC), indicating greater global co-movement among stocks selected by FIOs compared to those not selected. We conjecture that this may be because (i) FIOs...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015580296

Dynamic regularized parametric portfolio policies

Os, Bram van; Lönn, Rasmus; Dijk, Dick van - 2026

We put forward a Dynamic Regularized Parametric (DRP) approach for active portfolio policies. We build upon the parametric policy framework of Brandt et al. (2009) that directly links the portfolio weights to a limited set of asset characteristics. This yields a parsimonious specification that...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015580333

U.S .- Korea yield synchronization and its implications for monetary policy transmission

Kim, Jihyun; Kim, Somin; Kwak, Boreum - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015605080

Hard to process : atypical firms and the cross-section of expected stock returns

Weibels, Sebastian - 2026 - Current version: January 2026

Theories of limited attention predict that investors rely on typical patterns to navigate high-dimensional firm characteristics, making atypical firms hard to process. To quantify this difficulty, we propose a data-driven measure of firm atypicality using an autoencoder (ATYP). The model learns...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015605627

A robust inference for predictive expectile regression : an IVX-based approach

Cai, Zongwu; Long, Wei - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015619847

Macroeconomic determinants and green assets in explaining stock return dynamics : evidence from Indonesia

Nurdina, Nurdina; Nurkholis, Nurkholis; Adib, Noval; … - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015620137

Modeling stock yield reaction to environmental changes : does geopolitical risk matter? : a VECM framework in China

Elain, Mohammad I.; AlSabah, Mariam; Al Saber, Ahmad; … - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015620770

Cryptocurrencies in a sustainable era : analyzing the influence of environmental innovation and US stock indices on bitcoin and Ethereum returns

Mhamid, Imen; Hajji, Asma - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015621679

Inflation targeting and the dynamics of inflation risk premia in South Africa's bond market

Allison, Chloë; Wet, Theuns de - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015624793

Empirical analysis of the dogs of the dow trading strategy : Polish evidence

Ziarko-Siwek, Urszula - 2026

This study examines how effective the Dogs of the Dow (DoD) investment strategy, popular in the USA, was for the Polish blue-chip stock market between 2002-2023. This strategy involves investing the same amount of funds each year in shares of ten companies called Dogs of Dow with the highest...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015625934

Inflation shocks and equity vulnerability : regime, sign, and cross-country asymmetries in the G7

Ayadi, Ezer; Jedidia, Lotfi Ben; Mbarek, Noura Ben - 2026

This paper investigates the nonlinear and state-dependent relationship between inflation surprises and real equity returns across G7 economies. Using monthly data from January 1998 to May 2025, we employ nonlinear local projection models to estimate the dynamic responses of the equity market to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015628396

Tokenized gold in crypto markets : tracking accuracy and portfolio performance

Ashfaq, Muhammad; Pfeifer, Maximilian; Gürpinar, Tan; … - 2026

This paper examines the relationship between traditional gold (XAU) and its tokenized counterparts (PAXG and XAUT), providing an empirical assessment of how digital representations of real-world assets align with their underlying benchmarks. Using multi-year time series data, the study evaluates...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015628496

Broken symmetry of stock returns : a modified Jones-Faddy skew t-distribution

Shao, Siqi; Ghasemi, Arshia; Farahani, Hamed; Serota, … - 2026

We argue that negative skew and positive mean of the distribution of stock returns are largely due to the broken symmetry of stochastic volatility governing gains and losses. Starting with stochastic differential equations for stock returns and for stochastic volatility, we argue that the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015628697

Capturing short- and long-term temporal dependencies using Bahdanau-enhanced fused attention model for financial data : an explainable AI approach

Khansama, Rasmi Ranjan; Priyadarshini, Rojalina; Nanda, … - 2026

Prediction of stock closing price plays a critical role in financial planning, risk management, and informed investment decision-making. In this study, we propose a novel model that synergistically amalgamates Bidirectional GRU (BiGRU) with three complementary attention techniques-Top-k Sparse,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015628752

AI meets trade : Global linkages and the cross-country distribution of the gains from AI

Filippucci, Francesco - 2026

This paper provides estimates of expected per capita real income gains from AI over the next decade in OECD and G20 economies. It relies on a multi-country, multi-sector general equilibrium model to incorporate the role of international trade and considers different scenarios regarding AI...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015631530

Local information demand and the cross-section of stock returns

Chu, Gang; Goodell, John W.; Li, Xiao - 2026

Using internet search data, we examine how geographic proximity shapes individual investors' information acquisition behavior. Focusing on the Chinese stock market, we document a pronounced local bias in information demand: individual investors search more intensively for stocks of firms...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015637550

Do higher wealth levels really guarantee higher returns? : a euro area test

Radke, Marc Peter - 2026

Euro area household wealth accumulation is commonly perceived to be impaired by negative return shocks, wealth-reducing policy measures and suboptimal investment behaviour. It is further assumed that poorer households are disproportionately affected, earn lower returns and that wealth inequality...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015637650

Forecasting value at risk and expected shortfall in equity markets of high-income and Latin American countries

Liza, Fiorela; Rodriguez, Gabriel; Arellano Ataurima, Miguel - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015638652

The mean-variance paradigm is almost universal : the skewness effect

Levy, Haim - 2026

The mean-variance rule (M-V) conforms with the expected utility paradigm only in limited and economically unacceptable scenarios. Thus, the most widely employed portfolio-selection rule seemingly loses ground. We show with the commonly employed utility functions in economics, with a preference...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015638958

The impact of market dynamics and geopolitical uncertainty on property return : a comparative analysis of BRICS countries

Moodley, Fabian; Lawrence, Babatunde - 2026

Rising geopolitical tensions and fluctuating financial market conditions have increased volatility and negatively impacted property returns across BRICS countries, yet this critical area remains underexplored despite its significant implications for policy reform and investor participation. To...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015638996

On return probabilities of adverse events under dependence and lessons to learn for decision-making

Hofert, Marius - 2026

Considering achieving a goal in each of several time intervals when, in every time interval, an adverse event may lead to a failure raises the question of the return probability of adverse events, so the probability of at least one failure to happen during the time period of interest. Through...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015639025

Human-AI synergy in statistical arbitrage : enhancing robustness across volatile financial markets

Lei, Binxu - 2026

This study provides a structured review of statistical arbitrage research in the context of artificial intelligence, with a particular focus on machine learning based methods. The reviewed literature highlights the evolution from linear, rule-based strategies to increasingly complex data-driven...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015639047

Persistence and long-run linkages between US stock market prices and bond yields

Salazar, Juan Diego Cafferata; Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; … - 2026

This paper uses fractional integration and cointegration methods to examine the persistence and long-run relationship between the S&P 500 index and the nominal yield to maturity of 10-year US Treasury bonds (GS10) over the period from January 1954 to December 2024. The results indicate that both...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015639090