This paper uses the volatility surface data from options contracts to document a strong, robust, and positive cross-sectional relation between risk-neutral skewness (RNS) and subsequent stock returns. The differential return between high and low RNS stocks amounts to 0.17% per week....

Trading in options with a wide range of exercise prices and a single maturity allows a researcher to extract the market's risk neutral probability density (RND) over the underlying price at expiration. The RND contains investors' beliefs about the true probabilities blended with their risk...

We investigate the cross-sectional variation in the CDS-bond basis, which measures the difference between credit default swap (CDS) spread and cash-bond implied credit spread. We test several explanations for the violation of the arbitrage relation between cash bond and CDS contract, which...

Dimension reduction techniques for functional data analysis model and approximate smooth random functions by lower dimensional objects. In many applications the focus of interest lies not only in dimension reduction but also in the dynamic behaviour of the lower dimensional objects. The most...

In line with regulations and common risk management practice, the credit risk of a portfolio is managed via its potential future exposures (PFEs), expected exposures (EEs), and related measures, the expected positive exposure (EPE), effective expected exposure (EEE), and the effective expected...

In this paper we expand the literature of risk neutral density estimation across maturities from implied volatility curves, usually estimated and interpolated through cubic smoothing splines. The risk neutral densities are computed through the second derivative as in Panigirtzoglou and...

The notion of risk neutrality is a basic element in standard textbook treatments of the economics of risk. In the single variable case, it is well known that an Expected Utility maximizer will be risk neutral toward all distributions if and only if her NM (von Neumann Morgenstern) index is...

In the paper we present the application of risk neutral measure estimation in the analysis of the index WIG20 from Polish stock market. The risk neutral measure is calculated from the process of the options on that index. We assume that risk neutral measure is the mixture of lognormal...

In this paper portfolio problems with linear loss functions and multivariate elliptical distributed returns are studied. We consider two risk measures, Value-at-Risk and Conditional-Value-at-Risk, and two types of decision makers, risk neutral and risk averse. For Value-at-Risk, we show that the...

Trading in options with a wide range of exercise prices and a single maturity allows a researcher to extract the market's risk-neutral density (RND) over the underlying price at expiration. The RND contains investors' beliefs about the true probabilities blended with their risk preferences, both...

We propose a non-structural method to retrieve the risk-neutral density (RND) impliedby options on the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX). The methodology is based on orthogonalpolynomial expansions around a kernel density and yields the RND of the underlyingasset without the need for a parametric...

We present a method of estimating density-related functionals, without prior knowledge of the density's functional form. The approach revolves around the specification of an explicit formula for a new class of distributions which encompasses many of the known cases in statistics, including the...

Building Risk-Neutral Densities (RND) from options data can provide market-implied expectations about the future behavior of a financial variable. And market expectations on financial variables may influence macroeconomic policy decisions. It can be useful also for corporate and financial...

We propose a simple and yet robust measure of tail neutrality. By this measure, hedge funds are more sensitive to market risk when the market experiences a substantial decline. This is also true when we consider a number of distinct hedge fund styles. This source of risk is not diversifiable,...

This chapter deals with the estimation of risk neutral distributions for pricing index options resulting from the hypothesis of the risk neutral valuation principle. After justifying this hypothesis, we shall focus on parametric estimation methods for the risk neutral density functions...

Markets for credit default swaps (CDS) and bonds of the same reference entity and maturity are bound by no-arbitrage conditions. Indeed, using a large data set we show that CDS premia and par asset swap spreads are mostly cointegrated. Nonetheless, the average CDS-bond basis (i.e. the difference...

This chapter deals with the estimation of risk neutral distributions for pricing index options resulting from the hypothesis of the risk neutral valuation principle. After justifying this hypothesis, we shall focus on parametric estimation methods for the risk neutral density functions...

We analyze an environment plagued by double moral hazard where the worker's effort level and the employer's monitoring level are not contractible. In such an environment, the employer tends to over-monitor thereby inducing low effort. To ease the latter problem, the employer may choose to...

Dimension reduction techniques for functional data analysis model and approximate smooth random functions by lower dimensional objects. In many applications the focus of interest lies not only in dimension reduction but also in the dynamic behaviour of the lower dimensional objects. The most...

Dimension reduction techniques for functional data analysis model and approximate smooth random functions by lower dimensional objects. In many applications the focus of interest lies not only in dimension reduction but also in the dynamic behaviour of the lower dimensional objects. The most...

Markets for credit default swaps (CDS) and bonds of the same reference entity and maturity are bound by no-arbitrage conditions. Indeed, using a large data set we show that CDS premia and par asset swap spreads are mostly cointegrated. Nonetheless, the average CDS-bond basis (i.e. the difference...

Markets for credit default swaps (CDS) and bonds of the same reference entity and maturity are bound by no-arbitrage conditions. Indeed, using a large data set we show that CDS premia and par asset swap spreads are mostly cointegrated. Nonetheless, the average CDS-bond basis (i.e. the difference...