The viability of forward guidance as a monetary policy tool depends on the horizon over which it can be communicated and its influence on expectations over that horizon. We develop and estimate a model of imperfect central bank communications and use it to measure how effectively the Fed has...

An accurate assessment of the risk of extreme environmental events is of great importance for populations, authorities and the banking/insurance/reinsurance industry. Koch (2017) introduced a notion of spatial risk measure and a corresponding set of axioms which are well suited to analyze the...

Contingent Convertible (CoCo) is a hybrid debt issued by banks with a specific feature forcing its conversion to equity in the event of the bank’s financial distress. CoCo carries two major risks: the risk of default, which threatens any type of debt instrument, plus the exclusive risk of...

This paper develops a new methodology in order to study the role of dynamic expectations. Neither reference-point theories nor feedback models are sufficient to describe human expectations in a dynamic market environment. We use an interdisciplinary approach and demonstrate that expectations of...

China and the international monetary system need each other. The international monetary system is strained, with crisis just around the corner, yet reform is not on anyone's agenda. Meanwhile China, deeply invested in the current system, faces narrowing options as trading partners question its...

We propose a novel intraday instantaneous volatility measure which utilises sequences of drawdowns and drawups non-equidistantly spaced in physical time as indicators of high-frequency activity of financial markets. The sequences are re-expressed in terms of directional-change intrinsic time...

We examine the global legal entity identifier (LEI) system for the identification of participants in financial markets. Semi-structured interviews with data professionals revealed the many ways in which the LEI can improve both business process efficiency, and counterparty and credit risk...

Fiscal policymakers are expected to conduct countercyclical policies to mitigate cyclical fluctuations of output, but the assessment of cyclical conditions in real time is subject to considerable uncertainty. They face two types of risk: (i) launching discretionary measures to support or dampen...

Purpose: the aim of this paper is to minimize the risks of new product development and shorten time-to-market, particularly for high-tech enterprise where the complexity of the product generate vast amount of failure mode. Design/methodology/approach: first, the concept of Critical Consideration...

Using a novel regulatory dataset of fully identified derivatives transactions, this paper provides the first comprehensive analysis of the structure of the euro area interest rate swap (IRS) market after the start of the mandatory clearing obligation. Our dataset contains 1.7 million bilateral...

The global economic crisis and deep financialization processes recently suffered by the real estate market have exposed the latter to further and greater risks. Against this, the importance of real estate risk management has noticeably grown within the dynamics of both markets, real estate and...

In contrast to the U.S., many executive managers of continental European firms have a PhD. In this paper we analyze if a research-oriented background in the form of a PhD is linked to the corporate decision-making of CFOs in the use of foreign exchange (FX) derivatives in Germany. After...

Empirische Untersuchungen belegen einen mittlerweile auch in Deutschland erhöhten Verbreitungsgrad der Due Diligence bei Mergers & Acquisitions (M&A). Differenziert wird bei den Untersuchungen zwischen einzelnen Teilreviews (Financial, Tax, Legal etc.) allerdings wurden bislang keine breiten...

Purpose: This paper aims at investigating the reasons for the complex and long lead time from global suppliers that causes inventory shortages. It focuses on supply chain risk management in global sourcing. This study has revealed all the specific risks of a global sourcing project and has...

Diese Untersuchung beschäftigt sich mit der konsistenten und effizienten Ausgestaltung eines Risikomanagementsystems, das geeignet ist die Auswirkungen der Ungewissheit in betriebswirtschaftlichen Entscheidungssituationen besser zu verstehen und Strategien für eine aktive Steuerung von...

Die jüngste Wirtschaftskrise hat vor Augen geführt, dass eine proaktive Vorausschau auf zukünttige Risiken und deren Berücksichtigung in den unternehmerischen Führungsprozessen von existenzieller Bedeutung ist. Für Industrieunternehmen gestaltet sich dies aufgrund des hohen Anteils nur...

Supply Chain Management (SCM) and Risk Management (RM) are two current business management approaches that are based on relatively long historical developments. RM has been steadily developing since the middle of the 20th century while SCM, which started in the early 1990s, is a more recent...

In the nearly thirty years since Hans Buhlmann (Buhlmann (1987)) set out the notion of the Actuary of the Third Kind, the connection between Actuarial Science (AS) and Mathematical Finance (MF) has been continually reinforced. As siblings in the family of Risk Management techniques,...

In previous works, the importance of risk management implementation was addressed with regard to the problem of bankruptcy threat, with the explanation of risk impact on higher bankruptcy costs or the underinvestment problem. However, the evaluation of the impact of risk outcomes is technically...

In uncertain food safety environments, the suppliers of food raw materials (FRM) are facing crucial food safety issues. Therefore, this article aims to probe the risk-averse attitude of FRM suppliers in the face changing marketing environments, in order to establish a decision-making theory as a...

Commercial banks play an important role in the development of a country. A sound, progressive and dynamic banking system is a fundamental requirement for economic development. Thus, the purpose of this study was investigating the impact of investment diversification on financial performance of...

Purpose of the article: The first part of the article shows summarised information on risk management in projects based on the literature review. The second part of the article is a case study made on the basis of materials made available by the company implementing the AZTiE project. The case...

In the literature, there is no consensus as to which Value-at-Risk forecasting model is the best for measuring market risk in banks. In the study an analysis of Value-at-Risk forecasting model quality over varying economic stability periods for main indices from stock exchanges was conducted....

Enterprises affected by supply chain disruptions have reported adverse consequences and dramatic financial losses. Within the research area of supply chain risk management, researchers use simulation models and algorithms to analyze disruption risks and their potential effects on the supply...

Bitcoin is an exciting new financial product that may be useful for inclusion in investment portfolios. This paper investigates the implications of replacing gold in an investment portfolio with bitcoin (“digital gold”). Our approach is to use several different multivariate GARCH models...

We study the allocation of interest rate risk within the European banking sector using novel data. Banks' exposure to interest rate risk is small on aggregate, but heterogeneous in the cross-section. In contrast to conventional wisdom, net worth is increasing in interest rates for approximately...

Risk estimation or volatility estimation at financial markets, particularly stock exchange markets, is complex issue of great importance to theorists and practitioners. Models used to estimate volatility forecasts are translated into better pricing of stocks and better risk management. The aim...

Insurers issuing segregated fund policies apply dynamic hedging to mitigate risks related to guarantees embedded in such policies. A typical industry practice consists of using fund mapping regressions to represent basis risk stemming from the imperfect correlation between the underlying fund...

Inventory management and pricing decisions based on quantitative models both in industrial practice and academic works often rely on minimizing expected cost, which refers to the concept of risk-neutrality of the decision maker. Although many useful insights in operational problems can be...

Firm-level default models are important for bottomup modeling of the default risk of corporate debt portfolios. However, models in the literature typically have several strict assumptions which may yield biased results, notably a linear effect of covariates on the log-hazard scale, no...

The rapid spread of new coronaviruses throughout China and the world in 2019-2020 has had a great impact on China's economic and social development. As the backbone of Chinese society, Chinese universities have made significant contributions to emergency risk management. Such contributions have...

Compliance measures emphasized in the Dodd-Frank Bill 2010, Section 165 is a response to the 2008 financial crisis, that requires large banks to maintain a minimum capital ratio. The Federal Reserve Bank (Fed) regulates capital of Bank Holding Companies (BHC) through compliance Supervisory...

In today's era of big data, deep learning and artificial intelligence have formed the backbone for cryptocurrency portfolio optimization. Researchers have investigated various state of the art machine learning models to predict Bitcoin price and volatility. Machine learning models like recurrent...

Recently, a novel coronavirus pneumonia (2019–nCoV) outbreak occurred in Wuhan, China, rapidly spreading first to the whole country, and then globally, causing widespread concern. From the perspectives of early warning and identification of risk, risk monitoring, and analysis, as well as risk...

A novel coronavirus was reported to the World Health Organization (WHO) in China on 31 December 2019. The WHO named the disease COVID-19 on 11 February 2020. As of 26 February 2020, the disease has been detected on all continents, except for Antarctica. Daily updates on COVID-19 since early...

In recent years, new methods concerning risk mitigation techniques in energy planning strategies have become popular. Delarue et al. introduced the integrated portfolio investment model to account for supply-demand constraints. This paper proposes a model which is suitable to the energy...

Proper Corporate Governance and specifically Risk Governance of banks at board level is key for a sound and robust banking sector, which based on the important function of banks as intermediaries is also relevant for the overall economy. According to supranational institutions as well as...

Introduction -- Cold politics, hot economics -- Multinational firms and political crisis -- Exit : managing crisis by finding the door -- Voice : diplomacy from the private sector -- Loyalty without solidarity -- Conclusion -- Interview appendix -- Index.