We offer a contribution to the analysis of optimal monetary policy. The standard approach to determine what policy rule a central bank should follow is to take a single structural model and minimize the unconditional volatilities of inflation and real activity. In this paper, we propose monetary...

This study empirically explores the dynamic effect of MP and FP on the economic growth of Thailand from Q1:2003 to Q2:2024. In this study, data analysis was conducted using an advanced sequence of the econometric modeling approach to guarantee that the estimated results were more consistent and...

During the neoliberal era, fiscal policy was side-lined: from a political economy perspective, it was seen as biased toward deficit and debt accumulation, while from a macroeconomic perspective, its potential role as a business cycle stabiliser was shifted to monetary policy, in line with the...

Recent crises have cast doubt on the legitimacy of technocratic power, yet its role in global economic governance remains poorly understood. Revisiting the collapse of Bretton Woods, we propose a dynamic theory of global monetary governance to explain how expanding central bank discretion can...

This paper estimates various Taylor rules for Norway based on the observed money market rate (Nibor). We begin by examining standard Taylor rules from the literature, applying them to Norwegian data to assess their fit. Next, we estimate a benchmark Taylor rule that is included in Norges Bank's...

I show that in linear rational expectation models, the effect of a monetary tightening can be simulated using contemporaneous and anticipated monetary policy shocks that replicate the forward curves observed during the period of interest, normalized with the forward curve observed in the quarter...

Fiscal rules have been shown to support fiscal discipline by improving government budget balances and restraining the growth of debt. However, questions remain about what enhances their effectiveness and how certain conditions help to build the credibility needed for their survival and success....

The aim of this paper is to investigate how the central bank of Mexico - a prototypical emerging market economy (EME) - adjusted its reaction coefficients according to an estimated Taylor-type rule in response to the COVID-19 pandemic and the posterior surge in inflation. To do so, we estimate a...

Are restrictions on fiscal policy necessary for monetary policy to be able to deliver price stability? When households are Ricardian, the net present value of future fiscal surpluses needs to equate the real value of government debt absent inflation. We show that when households are not...

This paper investigates the implications of the European Union's revised fiscal governance framework for Italy, a country facing the dual challenge of high public debt and persistent economic stagnation. Using a Stock-Flow Consistent (SFC) macroeconometric model of the Italian economy (MITA), we...

This paper estimates a New Keynesian model with a nonlinearity in the monetary policy rule to capture the practice of inflation targeting with target zones or tolerance bands. Private-sector agents form subjective expectations, update their beliefs over time using a perceived model of the...

This paper assesses the effectiveness and public finance implications of the German debt brake, a constitutional balanced budget rule introduced in 2009 that aims to ensure a sustainable path of public indebtedness. In order to estimate its causal effects, our paper employs a synthetic control...

We develop a simple two-period principal-agent model in which a present-biased government, the agent, chooses public investment levels given a deficit rule imposed by the principal. The principal sets a deficit cap to curb current debt-financed consumption. In doing so, it also reduces long-term...

The ECB can fulfil its mandate better and contribute to a stronger Europe by adopting sensible rules instead of relying on discretionary decision-making. A simple rule for the policy rate can promote systematic monetary policy and protect against significant policy errors. Ending the reliance on...

This paper provides a review of the empirical evidence cited in the current public discussions on removing the remaining constitutional restrictions on foreign-equity ownership in certain economic sectors. A fuller appreciation of the given evidence shows that lifting equity restrictions is not...

The main goal of the first-generation expenditure rules was to ensure fiscal discipline: preserving a sound fiscal framework and public debt sustainability. Regarding this goal, analytically as well as empirically, limiting the share of public expenditure in GDP would be more appropriate in case...

The Fed's policy rule switches during the different phases of the business cycle. This finding is established using a dynamic mixture model to estimate regime-dependent Taylor-type rules on US quarterly data from 1960 to 2021. Instead of exogenously partitioning the data based on tenures of the...

A large share of euro area member states is highly indebted. On average, their debt ratios have experienced a strong and continued upward trend that needs to be reversed. The debt sustainability analysis in the new fiscal rules provides great flexibility to member statesbut exhibits weaknesses...

A large share of euro area member states is highly indebted. On average, their debt ratios have experienced a strong and continued upward trend that needs to be reversed. The debt sustainability analysis in the new fiscal rules provides great flexibility to member statesbut exhibits weaknesses...

The European fiscal governance framework remains incomplete, hindering policy coordination during economic shocks and affecting the transmission of the single monetary policy. High public debt and low public investment worsen resilience across Member States. Many policymakers, institutions, and...

We study the market-perceived monetary policy rule of the Bank of England (BoE) using financial market data and macroeconomic surprises. Leveraging exogenous variations in inflation and industrial production (IP) surprises around Office for National Statistics releases, we estimate gilt yield...

The European fiscal governance framework remains incomplete, hindering policy coordination during economic shocks and affecting the transmission of the single monetary policy. High public debt and low public investment worsen resilience across Member States. Many policymakers, institutions, and...