Risk analysis and scenario testing are two of the core activities carried out by economists at central banks. With the increasing adoption of machine learning to enhance decision-support systems, and the amount of collected data spiking, institutions provide countless use-cases for the...

The replacement of fossil resources with renewable biomass in a bioeconomy is seen as a major contribution to climate change mitigation. This transformation will affect all members of society, making it crucial to consider the views of different stakeholders to ensure a socially acceptable...

This paper pursues a scenario analysis to shed light on past and potential future labour supply and labour demand dynamics of different skill groups in the six Western Balkan countries (WB6). It differentiates between four educational levels (low, medium-general, medium-VET, and high) and looks...

Monitoring economic conditions in real time, or nowcasting, is among the key tasks routinely performed by economists. Nowcasting entails some key challenges, which also characterise modern Big Data analytics, often referred to as the three "Vs": the large number of time series continuously...

The main aim of this research was to search for relevant indicators and effective instruments for modeling the impact and institutional management of the regional innovation system for its balanced development. The objective of the study was to justify approaches for institutional management...

We develop a methodology to track and quantify the economic impacts of lock-down and re-opening policies by Canadian provinces in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, using data that is available with a relatively short time-lag. To do so, we adapt, calibrate and implement a dynamic,...

This paper assesses the possible development of government interest expenditures as a share of GDP for Germany, France, Italy and Spain. Until 2021, these and other member states could anticipate a further reduction of interest expenditure in the future. This outlook has changed considerably...

Die Agrar- und Ernährungswirtschaft ist nach der Automobilindustrie der bedeutendste Wirtschaftszweig Niedersachsens. Sie sichert ein hohes Maß an sozialversicherungspflichtiger Beschäftigung, erzeugt Einkommen und ist von hoher gesellschaftlicher Relevanz. So findet sich in Niedersachsen...

The ambition to reach climate-neutral energy systems requires profound energy transitions. Various scenario studies exist which present different options to reach that goal. In this paper, key strategies for the transition to climate neutrality in Germany are identified through a meta-analysis...

Blending hydrogen (H2) produced from PEM electrolysis coupled to Renewable Energy Sources (RES) in the existing Natural Gas (NG) network is a promising option for the deep decarbonization of the gas sector. However, blending H2 with NG significantly affects the thermophysical properties of the...

Climate change has become a main concern of ministries of finance, central banks, and financial regulators. In response, a suite of scenarios and tools have been developed tthe potential scale of climate risks and underprice investments in resilience. This is particularly important for emerging...

We conduct a hybrid scenario exercise to analyze decarbonization pathways of the European power market and related distributional effects across countries as well as between consumers and producers. Our CIB analysis reveals qualitative scenarios that differ in the level of political (stringency...

In recent decades, Zimbabwe’s development record has been disappointing. In the last few years, a severe drought and the Covid-19 pandemic have added to the country’s development challenges. This paper is concerned with the long-run need to find a path toward faster growth in GDP,...

This paper builds on existing production network models to study the impact of global and sub-global carbon pricing. It uses the World Input-Output Database (WIOD) to calibrate intersectoral trade between seven regions and 56 economic sectors per region as well as EXIOBASE’s sectoral accounts...

Mandaue is a crucial city in Cebu island, Philippines as it links other large metropolises and is highly industrialized. The occurrence of urban heat island (UHI) in Mandaue was already confirmed by a previous study. In this paper, we aim to determine how UHI in Mandaue could be improved by...

Climate change has become a main concern of ministries of finance, central banks, and financial regulators. In response, a suite of scenarios and tools have been developed tthe potential scale of climate risks and underprice investments in resilience. This is particularly important for emerging...

The world is currently facing two socio-technical transitions: shifting to a low-carbon society, and a digital revolution. Despite some claims to the contrary, evidence suggests that spread and adoption of ICT does not automatically lead to reduction in energy demand, if this stimulates new...

This paper reviews the connection and impacts of flooding related to climate change in Southern Ontario. The cased study used was the City of Hamilton and the $20 billion portfolios of assets managed by the City of Hamilton’s Public Works Department. The process involved the development of a...

This paper discusses possible technical, economical and geopolitical consequences of the new energy scenario. We analyze the net zero emissions global race with an emphasis on the role renewable energies will play in this phenomenon and COP26’s recent decisions on climate and energy...

Cobalt demand for automotive electrification is a critical issue in China. This study aims to project the annual cobalt demand from 2021—2030 and examine the responses of annual cobalt demand to variations in electric vehicle sales, battery capacity factors, and cobalt substitution effects,...

The U.S. economy currently faces a truly extraordinary degree of uncertainty as a consequence of the COVID-19 pandemic. In these circumstances, the Federal Reserve could begin highlighting alternative scenarios to illustrate key risks to the economic outlook, and such scenarios could inform the...

Investors have a growing awareness that climate transition risks (such as carbon pricing policy) are among the new risk drivers of the financial system. One of the relevant implications of a shock in carbon price is the increase in business costs, which may diminish profitability and affect...

This paper builds on existing production network models to study the impact of global and sub-global carbon pricing. It uses the World Input-Output Database (WIOD) to calibrate intersectoral trade between seven regions and 56 economic sectors per region as well as EXIOBASE's sectoral accounts of...

The estimation of loss distributions for dynamic portfolios requires the simulation of scenarios representing realistic joint dynamics of their components, with particular importance devoted to the simulation of tail risk scenarios. Commonly used parametric models have been successful in...

The sea level has risen notably in recent decades compared to the most recent millennia. This poses serious threats to infrastructure, local jobs, environment and human population over the next century especially in coastal zones. In this paper, the most up-to-date understanding of the climate...

This paper introduces the quantile regression- based Distance-to-Default to Probability of Default (DD-PD) mapping, which links individual firms’ DD to their real world PD. Since changes in the DD depend on a handful of parameters, the mapping easily accommodates shocks arising from...

The widespread use of chemicals has led to significant water quality concerns, and their use is still increasing. Hence, there is an urgent need to understand the possible future trends in chemical emissions to water systems. This paper proposes a general framework for developing emission...