Search Results - subject_exact:"Scenario analysis"

Hybrid electric vehicles and CO₂ emission mitigation in Tunisia : a LEAP model analysis

Daldoul, Manel; Dakhlaoui, Ahlem - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015617022

Simulating the Economy-Energy-Environment (3E) system under policy scenarios : evidence from the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region

Jing, Munan; Zhao, Xinyu; Zhao, Pengda - 2026

The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region of China faces challenges in achieving sustainable development, necessitating a delicate balance between rapid economic growth, environmental protection, and efficient energy utilization. Against this background, this paper develops a System Dynamics (SD)...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015653851

A scenario-based requirement analysis of R&D projects from the cross-efficiency perspective

Wang, Qinru; Yang, Qing - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015375833

Climate risk stress testing : a survey and classification

Reinders, Henk Jan; Schoenmaker, Dirk; Dijk, Mathijs van - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015332604

Monetary policy, uncertainty, and communications

Garga, Vaishali; Herbst, Edward P.; McKay, Alisdair; … - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015471253

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Monetary policy, uncertainty, and communications

Garga, Vaishali; Herbst, Edward P.; McKay, Alisdair; … - 2025 - This version: September 2025

Edition: This version: September 2025

Book / Working Paper

Forecasting corporate default probabilities : a local logit approach for scenario analysis

Cascarino, Giuseppe; Ciocchetta, Federica; Pietrosanti, … - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015408453

Examining the application possibilities and economic issues of an alternative drive chain in Hungary : scenario analysis

Boldizsár, Adrienn; Török, Ádám; Szander, Norina - 2025

Background: A societal shift in attitudes is going to be required to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the field of transportation, which is crucial to the level of mitigation that can be achieved. There is increasing pressure on policymakers to address climate change and, in turn, to promote...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015436324

Robust planning of production networks at an automotive supplier

Bruetzel, Oliver; Hörger, Moritz; Foran, Anthony; … - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015445232

Cyber vulnerabilities at large US financial institutions and their third-party service providers

Chang, Jin Wook; Dice, Jacob; Du, Shengwu; Flury, Adam; … - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015605505

Climate crisis and sustainability : the impact of climate change on SDG indicators in Germany

Fehnker, David; Reuschel, Saskia; Stöver, Britta - 2025

The impacts of climate change and extreme weather events are becoming more and more evident in Europe and warming is occurring much faster than previously thought. Despite the necessary mitigation and decarbonisation efforts, the global warming that has already started and the associated climate...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015637829

A large Bayesian vector autoregression of the yield curve and macroeconomic variables with no-arbitrage restriction

Lee, Sunho; Kang, Kyu Ho - 2025

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015401970

A portfolio perspective on euro area bank profitability using stress test data

Mirza, Harun; Salleo, Carmelo; Trachana, Zoe - 2024

This study assesses euro area banks' profitability using granular stress test data from three EU-wide exercises, coordinated by the European Banking Authority, that took place in 2016, 2018, and 2021. We propose a credit portfolio-level risk-adjusted return on assets for the euro area as a whole...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015061511

Aiello, Maria Alessia; Angelico, Cristina; Cova, Pietro; … - 2024

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014634271

Liquidity stress tests for banks - range of practices and possible developments

Baudino, Patrizia; Carvalho, Pablo de; Svoronos, … - 2024

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015100992

Planning for potential increases in disbursements and risk of managed funds conditional on desired short-term performance levels

Galagedera, Don U. A. - 2024

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014528524

Expecting the unexpected : stressed scenarios for economic growth

González-Rivera, Gloria; Rodríguez-Caballero, Carlos … - 2024

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015156792

Research and development priorities for security of embedded hardware devices

Moghadasi, Negin; Luu, Mai; Adekunle, Rahman O.; … - 2024

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015405850

A simulation-based disaster management framework to analyze housing recovery : the case of Hampton Roads, USA

Diaz, Rafael; Behr, Joshua G.; Acero, Beatriz; Giles, … - 2024

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015407969

Pakistan's exposure to a strait of hormuz shock : fuel pricing, inflation, and external vulnerability

Satti, Ahsan ul Haq; Nawaz, Shahzada M. Naeem - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015618900

Global spatiotemporal multi-criteria analysis of coastal risk : current and future hot spots and clusters

Bidoia, Marco; Giupponi, Carlo - 2026

Coastal zones are among the environments most threatened by climate change. Although various efforts for global mapping and classification of coastal social and ecological systems have been undertaken, the ability to analyse and describe the spatial heterogeneity and multidimensionality of these...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015588204

The German Energiewende : a green deal template or planned failure?

Deshaies, Michel - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015620434

Evaluation of the economic impact of electricity blackout scenarios for the automotive sector and the Slovak economy

Turcsek, Patrik; Lábaj, Martin - 2026

We estimate the economic consequences of electricity blackout scenarios on the automotive industry and the Slovak economy. Our estimates of inoperability of the automotive sector range from 2.9 % to 4.2 % across regions on the first day of the blackout, while the overall inoperability of the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015626591

Strategic foresight for FinTech governance : a scenario-based MCDA approach for Kuwait

Kayed, Salah; Alhawwatma, Zaid; Morshed, Amer; Khrais, … - 2026

This study investigates how strategic foresight can enhance FinTech governance and policy resilience in emerging economies, using Kuwait as an illustrative case. It aims to identify which foresight interventions should be prioritized across alternative futures to strengthen innovation, security,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015628715

Lage und Risiken der chemischen Industrie

Mergner, Louisa; Bovenschulte, Marc; Wolter, Marc Ingo; … - 2026

Die Chemieindustrie steht im Zentrum der sozial-ökologischen Transformation: Als größter industrieller Verbraucher von Mineralölen und Erdgas in Deutschland und damit bedeutender Verursacher von Emissionen ist sie in besonderem Maße gefordert, sich grundlegend zu verändern. Ohne eine...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015637835

Multivariate economic tail risk and scenario analysis using the survey of professional forecasters

Schick, Manuel; Opschoor, Anne - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015638609

A glimpse on the futures of telecommunication networks : from market, technology and regulation trends to strategic foresight

Corazza, Giovanni Emanuele; Rinaldi, Ilaria; Coletto, Irene - 2026

This paper explores the current state, trends, and possible futures of the telecommunication ecosystem in Italy, outlining strategies for development. We adopt a combined methodology, integrating participatory scenario building through the Nominal Group Technique with a structured literature...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015639701

Assessing climate risks in Uruguay's banks using NGFS short-term scenarios

Barón, Andrea; Dassatti Camors, Cecilia; Lavagna, Gabriela - 2026

The agricultural sector is a key driver of the Uruguayan economy, making it particularly vulnerable to hydrometeorological events. This paper assesses the impact of severe physical risk events - combining droughts, heatwaves, and wildfires - on the capital position of Uruguayan banks, using the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015643949

Are sovereign debts sustainable under energy transition?

Mammetti, Veronica; Zenios, Stauros Andrea; Morelli, Giacomo - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015644724

At the Edge of Risk : Assessing Mongolia’s “Plausible Worst-Case” Scenario

Petrauskaite, Migle; Lin, Xinru; Pollitt, Hector - 2026

This paper develops a plausible worst-case scenario for Mongolia in which three major disasters—a sudden collapse in coal exports to China, a prolonged dzud (severe winter disaster), and a severe flood in Ulaanbaatar—occur in quick succession. While each event has precedent in Mongolia, an...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015655956

The climate-fiscal timebomb : how climate change will impact public budgets

Sood, Jaya; Mang, Sebastian; Caddick, Dominic; Schmidt, … - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015650729

After globalisation? : the future of European Multinationals in an era of geopolitical uncertainty

Baldermann, Sebastian; Coeurderoy, Régis; Duplat, Valérie - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015652517

The counterfactual scenario : are renewables cheaper?

Simshauser, Paul; Gilmore, Joel - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015652769

A machine-learning approach to identifying drivers of CO₂ emissions in China's computing power infrastructure

Li, Pin; De, Gejirifu; Zhang, Jinsuo; Zou, Shaohui; … - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015653240

The impact of the 2026 Iran war on U.S. inflation : a scenario analysis

Kilian, Lutz; Plante, Michael; Richter, Alexander W.; … - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015653629

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The impact of the 2026 Iran war on U.S. inflation : a scenario analysis

Kilian, Lutz; Plante, Michael; Richter, Alexander W.; … - 2026

Book / Working Paper

Identifying scenarios of interest under deep uncertainty

Kwakkel, Jan; Auping, Willem L.; End, Jan-Willem van den - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015632827

Supporting renewable energy or carbon capture : how can it change the energy transition?

Al Jarboua, Abdullah; Alyamani, Ryan; Durand-Lasserve, … - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015671074

Scenario simulation of CO₂ emissions and mitigation pathways in the Yangtze River Delta under the "Dual Carbon" goals : medium-to long-term projections with the LEAP-SJZA model

Yang, Li - 2026

As one of China's most economically active, open and innovative regions, the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) boasts strategic significance in the country's modernization and further opening-up. Exploring its medium-to long-term carbon emission trends and mitigation potential is crucial to achieving...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015670802

Deciphering drivers and pathways of green and low-carbon technology innovation in China : an extended LMDI decomposition and policy-scenario analysis

Tan, Shiqi; Yao, Liming; Xu, Zhongwen; Long, Yin; Xie, … - 2026

This study addresses the urgent need for technological solutions to combat climate change by examining the development of green and low-carbon technology (GLCT) patents in China from 2000 to 2020. Given China's dual-carbon goals to peak carbon emissions by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015670788

Assessing the climate sensitivity of wind power resources : multi scenario-based analysis via bias-corrected CMIP6 scenarios

Kartal, Veysi; Karakoyun, Erkan; Bayrak, Fatih; Scholz, … - 2026

Wind energy is a key pillar of low-carbon transitions, yet wind power density (WPD) is highly sensitive to climate-driven changes in near-surface winds and their seasonality. This study presents projected relative changes (%) in WPD over Türkiye for the period 2025-2100 under SSP1-2.6,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015672115

Scenario disclosure and market expectations : insights from earnings conferences via large language models

Li, Sihai; Wang, Ruiqi; Li, Zhen - 2026

A scenario described vividly and in detail is more easily imagined, leading individuals to overestimate the likelihood of its occurrence. We leverage a novel large-language-model (LLM) framework to analyze management speech style during unstructured earnings conferences and construct...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015672037

Exploring decarbonisation strategies in the Southern-European region of Catalonia through a multi-scenario assessment

Alcover Comas, Enric; Guardia Calsina, Pol; Samsó, Roger; … - 2026

This study evaluates decarbonisation pathways for the southern European region of Catalonia, addressing the critical gap of downscaling biophysical system-dynamics models to regional contexts. We explore variations in economic growth, energy efficiency, and renewable energy deployment. Using...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015674976

Achieving banking resilience under compound shocks : scenario analysis, management actions, and decision infrastructure

Ahmad, Nasir M. - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015670454

The stumbling block in "the race of our lives" : transition-critical materials, financial risks and the NGFS Climate Scenarios

Miller, Hugh; Dikau, Simon; Svartzman, Romain; Dées, … - 2023

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10013502612

Macroprudential policies and climate risks

Grünewald, Seraina Neva - 2023

It has become widely acknowledged that the looming climate crisis and the necessary transition to a low-carbon economy can and will be financially material for financial institutions. Accordingly, microprudential supervisors have started including climate-related financial risks in their daily...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014263182

Forecasting core inflation and its goods, housing, and supercore components

Clark, Todd E.; Gordon, Matthew V.; Zaman, Saeed - 2023

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014447814

Effects of eliminating the US-China trade dispute tariffs

Zheng, Jian; Zhou, Shudong; Li, Xingzi; Padula, Antonio … - 2023

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014307329

A scenario analysis for the decarbonisation process in Poland's road transport sector

Pyra, Mariusz - 2023

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014252805

From fork to farm : impacts of more sustainable diets in the EU-27 on the agricultural sector

Rieger, Jörg; Freund, Florian; Offermann, Frank; … - 2023

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014342579

Determinants of pension fund's required return : a scenario-based simulation of civil service pension fund

Muhammad Irfan Abdul Rahman; Wee, Yeap Lau - 2023

This study examines the required return to fund a defined pension benefit of the Civil Service Pension Fund, managed by KWAP. Based on the four variables, contribution rate, retirement age, life expectancy, and length of service, this study simulates 648 scenarios of required return...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015448009

Will food be affordable to Filipinos by 2030? : alternative expenditure policies toward ending hunger by 2030

Briones, Roehlano M.; Bouis, Howarth E.; … - 2023

The current inflationary period has placed the spotlight on hunger and food insecurity, as the current Philippine Development Plan has strongly emphasized the attainment of food affordability for all Filipinos. This study offers a scenario analysis using computable general equilibrium modeling...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10014475208