Western media and academia have heralded the China collapse narrative. This paper provides a critical and balanced examination of the four challenges facing the Chinese economy - namely, deflation, debt, demographics, and de-coupling/de-risking. It argues that while deflationary pressure is...

Prudent macroeconomic policies have supported India's economic resilience, with growth expected to recover from a recent softening and inflation expected to converge to target. Risks to the outlook include deepening geoeconomic fragmentation and a slower pace of domestic demand recovery

Solomon Islands has weathered the shocks of civil unrest, pandemic, and commodity price hikes, and achieved the milestones of hosting the Pacific Games in late 2023 and conducting peaceful general elections in April 2024. These achievements have raised the country's profile and strengthened...

Growth normalization after the 2022 FIFA World Cup continued with signs of activities strengthening more recently. Fiscal and external surpluses softened mainly due to lower hydrocarbon prices. Banks are healthy but pockets of vulnerabilities remain. Reform momentum has strengthened, guided by...

Thailand's cyclical recovery is underway, though it has yet to become broad-based. Growth is projected to accelerate moderately, reaching 2.7 percent in 2024 and 2.9 percent in 2025, supported by the rebound of tourism-related activities and fiscal stimulus. The slow recovery, weaker than in...

Liberia continues to face substantial long-term development challenges. Resource constraints and substantial gaps in infrastructure and human capital have hindered Liberia's growth prospects and the authorities' efforts to improve living standards. Addressing these challenges will require...

Cabo Verde's recent strong economic growth is driven by tourism, exports, private consumption, and remittances, but hampered by slow government investment. The government has maintained macro-financial stability but faces risks from global uncertainties, supply chain issues, and commodity price...

The Korean economy has remained resilient against multiple shocks. Economic growth has recovered, inflation has steadily declined, and financial stability risks have decreased. However, downside risks have increased amid high uncertainty from policy shifts in major trading partners and recent...

The Nicaraguan economy is experiencing robust growth. Real GDP growth accelerated to around 4½ percent in 2023 and the first half of 2024, from about 3.8 percent in 2022, on the back of robust domestic demand, while inflation is moderating. Prudent macroeconomic policies and record-high...

The economy is broadly balanced but modest potential growth has constrained increases in living standards and makes it difficult to address fiscal and social needs. Policy priorities are therefore mainly of structural nature. They include boosting productivity and employment as well as...

Through end-June 2024, Grenada's economy was experiencing sustained strong growth supported by buoyant tourism, moderating inflation, and a narrowing current account deficit. A surge in Citizenship-by-Investment (CBI) revenue supported a strong improvement in budget balances, a build-up of...

The Czech Republic is evolving from a heavily manufacturing-based, export-oriented hub to a more mature and diversified economy. Non-auto manufacturing, energy, and construction, once important Czech engines of growth, have run out of steam, hampered by decelerating productivity growth, higher...

Economic activity has slowed reflecting falling natural gas production, lower public investment execution, financial volatility, and disruptions due to socio-political tensions. Bolivia's inflation rate remains one of the lowest in the region, sustained by price controls and costly subsidies....

The Samoan economy has bounced back strongly over the last two years, supported by a recovery in tourism. Fiscal surpluses, in part due to high grant flows, have helped the country emerge from the pandemic with enhanced buffers. At the same time, several longstanding and emerging...

After reaching 5.1 percent in 2023, growth is expected to slow to 3.9 percent in 2024, while inflation would decline to 8.2 percent. The banking sector remains resilient amid continued rapid consumer credit growth. A moderate current account deficit is expected this year. The outlook is subject...

A new Government of National Unity (GNU) has been in place since June 2024, which the markets have welcomed. The GNU faces difficult challenges: declining GDP per capita, high unemployment, poverty and inequality, and rising public debt and debt service, which crowd out other urgent spending...

The Board approved Ethiopia's request for a four-year arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF arrangement) in July 2024 to support the authorities' Homegrown Economic Reform Agenda. The Fund-supported program addresses macroeconomic imbalances, aiming to restore external debt...

Niger remains trapped in high levels of fragility and conflict, which are exacerbated by climate shocks. This year, flooding combined with heavy rain affected more than 1.5 million people. The socio-political environment remains challenging. Political instability and sanctions following the...

The authorities have requested a new ECF-supported program, to deepen reforms undertaken under the previous program (completed in July 2024). They have also requested a program under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF)

Cambodia's economy is at a crossroads. While the economic recovery continues, its pace remains uneven. The sharp slowdown in credit growth has exposed the economy to increased financial sector vulnerabilities. Policy formulation must ensure a durable and inclusive recovery in the near term and...

Albania is on track to be one of the fastest growing economies in Europe in 2024, underpinned by tourism and prudent macroeconomic policies. Despite this strong performance, GDP per capita stands at just around a quarter of the EU-15 level. The economy is also facing structural headwinds,...

Recent developments. Haiti is facing exceptionally challenging circumstances. The deteriorating security environment, which reached crisis proportions in the first few months of 2024, has continued to worsen, disrupting supply chains (particularly energy and basic services) and feeding...

Malta has experienced strong growth over the past decade, primarily driven by export-oriented service industries, such as tourism and online gaming. Although growth is expected to moderate, it will remain among Europe's highest in the near term, along with tight labor markets. Inflation has...

Hong Kong SAR's economy is on a path of gradual but uneven recovery following a protracted period of shocks. While the unemployment rate has declined to historical lows, employment loss has been sizable and domestic demand has remained weak amid tight financial conditions and property market...

Oman has achieved a remarkable improvement in its economic fundamentals. The fiscal and external positions have strengthened significantly, while nonhydrocarbon growth is picking up amid low inflation. Investor confidence has increased, paving the way for rising private sector investments....

The authorities' commitment to a range of policy reforms continues to strengthen macroeconomic stability. The economy is growing, inflation is receding, donor support is increasing, the public debt is declining, and international bond spreads are at historic lows. The Final Investment Decision...

The economy has begun to recover from the 2023 recession, but the strength of the rebound is hindered by still weak construction investment and tepid growth among trading partners. Falling energy prices and weak domestic demand have temporarily reduced inflation below 2 percent. The economic...

Activity has recovered to its pre-pandemic level and inflation is now modestly negative. Public finances are improving and borrowing costs have declined. Nonetheless, public debt remains high and its short duration represents an important vulnerability

The Polish economy is recovering, driven by a rebound in domestic demand. Private consumption growth is being driven by rising nominal and real wages, and lower inflation; still, inflation remains well above target against a tight labor market. The current account surplus has diminished in 2024...

Following the shocks of recent years, fiscal expansion has helped preserve robust economic growth but has also pushed up Togo's public debt and contributed to vulnerabilities in the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU). Further, despite the fiscal expansion, Togo's progress towards...

The Gambia hosted the 15th Summit of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) in early May 2024-the second largest intergovernmental organization in the world. Economic recovery is strengthening, while inflation has trended down, albeit slowly. Despite strong revenue collection efforts, the...

On March 25, 2022, the IMF Executive Board approved a 30-month arrangement for Argentina supported by the Extended Fund Facility (2022 EFF). Amounting to US$44 billion (1,001 percent of quota), it was the second largest non-precautionary arrangement in the Fund's history after the 2018 Stand-by...

Tajikistan has continued to navigate the challenging external environment well. Real GDP rose 8.4 percent during January-September 2024, while inflation remained well-contained at 3.1 percent (y/y) in September. Robust remittances have boosted the external position, with FX reserves at more than...

The people of São Tomé and Príncipe (STP), a small fragile island state, have faced extraordinary challenges. STP continues to struggle with high fuel import needs, limited export potential, and depleted international reserves, and faced a massive balance of payments (BOP) shock in early...

Exports in sub-Saharan Africa have struggled to generate the kind of growth witnessed in Southeast Asia on the background of rising government debt. This article considers the extent to which government debt, which has tripled since 2008, may have constrained export-led growth in the region....

This study highlights the role of political leadership in external debt management by translating its effectiveness into economic growth. We use data from World Development Indicators (2018), Archigos (version 4.1) for Goemans et al. (2009) and Scartascini et al. (2021) from 1975 to 2019. The...

Schulden prägen das Leben vieler Millionen Menschen in den USA. Felix Krämer macht sich auf die Suche nach ihren Geschichten von 1865 bis in die Gegenwart. Dabei wird deutlich, dass insbesondere Schwarze Amerikaner:innen, aber auch Frauen, Arbeiter:innen oder Migrant:innen immer wieder...

The 22nd post-programme surveillance mission to Spain took place, in virtual format, on 2 and 4 October 2024. The meetings involved staff from the European Commission, in liaison with European Central Bank staff. European Stability Mechanism staff participated on aspects related to its Early...

The 21st post-programme surveillance mission to Ireland took place from 18 to 20 September 2024. This mission involved European Commission staff in liaison with European Central Bank staff. European Stability Mechanism (ESM) staff participated on aspects relating to its Early Warning System.

The 20th post-programme surveillance mission to Portugal took place from 30 September to 1 October 2024. This mission involved European Commission staff in liaison with European Central Bank staff. European Stability Mechanism (ESM) staff participated on aspects relating to its Early Warning System.

The fifth post-programme surveillance mission to Greece took place from 8 to 11 October 2024. It involved European Commission staff in liaison with European Central Bank staff. European Stability Mechanism staff participated on aspects relating to its Early Warning System. Staff from the...

The 17th post-programme surveillance mission to Cyprus took place from 30 September to 7 October 2024. This mission involved European Commission staff in liaison with European Central Bank (ECB) staff. European Stability Mechanism (ESM) staff participated on aspects relating to the ESM's Early...

This paper challenges the prevailing view in the sovereign debt literature by arguing that sovereign debt markets, in many respects, behave similarly to other credit markets. These markets are hierarchical rather than flat, inherently hybrid in nature, blending elements of public order and...