This paper examines the resilience of micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) in Fiji against the economic impacts of major shocks including the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic and climate-related hazards, using a survey of 2,400 MSMEs from early 2023. The analysis focuses on...

This study examines whether trade competition from low-wage countries (LWCs) can influence immigration patterns in an advanced economy. We focus on Italy between 2003 and 2013, a period characterized by rising market pressure from China and Eastern Europe. Using census data on sectoral...

This paper uses a vulnerability-based approach to analyze the evolution of the middle class in Europe between 2005-08 and 2015-18. The analysis reveals that, on average, the income level needed to ensure a low probability of falling into poverty-also understood as the vulnerability...

This report focuses on Japan's experiences to showcase how the country incrementally strengthened the resilience of its health system by enhancing its capacity to prepare for, respond to, and recover from crises, drawing valuable lessons from its experience of major earthquakes, floods, and...

Climate change is associated with an increasing frequency of extreme weather events, which can severely reduce people's welfare, especially in the Global South. Here, we analyse the impacts of rainfall shocks - including lacking and excessive rains - on economic and social outcomes, using...

Families play an important role in providing insurance against adverse shocks, but little is known about how shocks affect the family structure itself. We study the impact of a labor market shock on divorce and intra-household allocation of resources, exploiting a naturalexperimental earthquake...

In conventional proxy VAR analysis, the shocks of interest are identified by external instruments. This is typically accomplished by considering the covariance of the instruments and the reduced-form residuals. Alternatively, the instruments may be internalized by augmenting the VAR process by...

The global cocoa trade network is highly concentrated. The top 5 producers account for 75 percent of exports. Although recent research shows that agricultural trade was resilient to the 2020 pandemic, cocoa is one of the most affected goods. This paper estimates the effects of international...

We propose a new model in which relationship-specific supply and demand shocks are non-parametrically identified in bipartite data under mild assumptions. For example, separate heterogeneous supply shocks are identified for each firm to which a bank lends. We show that a simple estimator is...

We use narrative monetary policy shocks and local projections to estimate the impact of monetary policy on consumption and investment. We use granular data to investigate how the response varies across consumption categories, investment types, and sectors. Our findings indicate that both...

Prevailing research suggests that climate change disproportionately burdens emerging markets and developing economies with greater output losses compared to advanced economies, positing that colder regions are less impacted than their warmer counterparts. This study revisits the empirical...

We develop a spatial dynamic general equilibrium model of a small open agricultural economy to study the impact of global food, fuel and fertilizer price shocks on consumption patterns of heterogeneous households located in different regions, under alternative fiscal responses, including direct...

This paper examines competitiveness and productivity in the Baltics. Focusing on recent developments, it asks why Russia's war in Ukraine led to a prolonged recession and strong decline in competitiveness in Estonia, while Latvia and Lithuania shielded their economies more effectively. The paper...

We explore the effect of (big) shocks on the allocation of (bilateral) aid using natural disasters as natural experiments. We find that aid commitment statistically significantly increases following natural disasters, and that humanitarian aid precedes structural aid. While we find that the...

Countries facing commodity (net) export price shocks tend to implement fiscal rules and to financially close their economies, demonstrating "macroeconomic prudence". These effects are (unsurprisingly) asymmetric between import and export price shocks. The impact of commodity (net) export prices...

European electricity markets are in the midst of unprecedented changes-caused by Russia's invasion of Ukraine and the rise of renewable sources of energy. Using high-frequency data, this paper investigates volatility spillovers across 24 countries in the European Union (EU) during the period...

This paper examines the great supply shock following the pandemic and the invasion of Ukraine, using a novel suite of supply indices. The suite has indices for the euro area total economy, euro area industries, sectors and countries. The suite also computes the contributions to the indices from...