The aim of this paper is to evaluate the impact of popular business cycle indicators on the forecasts of industry production index. Research is conducted on Polish economy, by using methodology proposed by Mathias Klein.

The aim of this paper is to evaluate the impact of using popular business cycle indicators on the forecasts of industry production index. Research is conducted on Polish economy, by using methodology proposed by M. Klein.

The aim of this paper is to evaluate the impact of popular business cycle indicators on the forecasts of industry production index. Research is conducted on Polish economy, by using methodology proposed by Mathias Klein.

The aim of this paper is to evaluate the impact of using popular business cycle indicators on the forecasts of industry production index. Research is conducted on Polish economy, by using methodology proposed by M. Klein.

A new Wind Speed Forecasting (WSF) model, suitable for a short term 1–24h forecast horizon, is developed by adapting Hammerstein model to an Autoregressive approach. The model is applied to real data collected for a period of three years (2004–2006) from two different sites. The performance...

The aim of this paper is to evaluate the impact of using popular business cycle indicators on the forecasts of industry production index. Research is conducted on Polish economy, by using methodology proposed by M. Klein.

This paper addresses the question whether forecasters could have been able to produce better forecasts by using the available information more efficiently (informational efficiency of forecast). It is tested whether forecast errors covariate with indicators such as survey results, monetary data,...

This paper addresses the question whether forecasters could have been able to produce better forecasts by using the available information more efficiently (informational efficiency of forecast). It is tested whether forecast errors covariate with indicators such as survey results, monetary data,...

In this paper, we estimate and analyse a set of equations of French inflation for forecasting purpose at the horizon of three months, six months and one year. A different equation is associated to each horizon. This approach has the advantage of modeling directly the variable of interest at the...

Business surveys aim at getting, as quickly and as simply as possible, the recent and probable changes in economic activity. Answers to most of the questions are qualitative with three modalities (qualification of an evolution: up / stable / down). The qualitative indicators provided by these...

This paper studies the informational content of the slope of the yield curve as a predictor of recessions in the euro area. In particular, the historical predictive power of ten yield spreads, for different segments of the yield curve, is tested using a probit model. The yield spread between the...

The business cycle recovery in the USA will have a positive impact on Europe already in the first half of 2002, leading to a pickup in economic growth. Activity in Austria should thus gain strength from quarter to quarter. As the recovery starts from a low level early this year, the average rate...

Real GDP in Austria expanded by no more than 1.1 percent in 2001, as a result of subdued domestic demand and a marked slackening of exports and equipment investment. Driven by a recovery in the USA and supported by low oil prices, activity may stage a strong rebound as from next spring. Under...

Under benign assumptions concerning the international business cycle, the Austrian economy should grow by 1.3 percent in volume this year, and by 1.9 percent in 2002, provided that the U.S. economy recovers and policy in the EU takes action to stem the forces of recession. Along with weaker...

The projections have been elaborated under a high degree of uncertainty. The terrorist attacks in the USA have hit the world economy in what has been an already fragile business cycle situation. The economic consequences will depend on further international developments and the response from...

The Survey of Professional Forecasters is the oldest quarterly survey of macroeconomic forecasts in the United States. The survey began in 1968 and was conducted by the American Statistical Association and the National Bureau of Economic Research. The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia took...