The motivation of this paper is to identify the effect of treatment charge (TC) on LME (London Metal Exchange) copper prices. It is a fundamental variable as a supply side factor, because it is related to the smelting process and reflects the level of concentrates market tightness. To examine...

This article visits the question of whether canceled warrants (CWs) have a positive effect on LME metal prices. To examine this question carefully, a regression model is applied. This paper finds a statistically significant positive link between CWs and LME metal prices, including aluminum,...

Using a unique data set of individual professional forecasts, we document disagreement about the future path of monetary policy, particularly at longer horizons. The stark differences in short rate forecasts imply strong disagreement about the risk-return trade-off of longer-term bonds....

Using a unique data set of individual professional forecasts, we document disagreement about the future path of monetary policy, particularly at longer horizons. The stark differences in short rate forecasts imply strong disagreement about the risk-return trade-off of longer-term bonds....

This paper examines the relative contribution of regular and e-mini futures market to price discovery of EUR/USD futures contracts on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), using intraday data in 2010.The relative contribution to price discovery is estimated using the information share approach...

Does speculation facilitate price discovery or instability? If it is price discovery, it is beneficial and should be encouraged; if it is instability, welfare is enhanced by its reduction. This paper seeks to distinguish between these two characteristics by analysing those times when speculation...

Bubbles have become ubiquitous. This ubiquity has stimulated research over the past three decades into bubbles in history. In this article, we provide a systematic overview of research into historical bubbles. Our analysis reveals that there is no coherent approach to the study of bubbles and...

The paper explores the link between financial sentiment and private debt, using Keynes's 'A Treatise on Money' as a conceptual backdrop. In responding to his critics after the publication of his 'General Theory' Keynes famously talked about unexpected, violent changes in conventional asset...

The paper explores the link between financial sentiment and private debt, using Keynes’s A Treatise on Money as a conceptual backdrop. In responding to his critics after the publication of his General Theory Keynes famously talked about unexpected, violent changes in conventional asset...

This paper used the composite construction method proposed by Haugen (1999) and its application by Zhao and Wang (2010) for the Chinese stock market. Utilizing the Shanghai A-share market stocks data, this paper first selected the shares listed on the Shanghai Stock Exchange during January 1,...

Bubbles have become ubiquitous. This ubiquity has stimulated research over the past three decades into bubbles in history. In this article, we provide a systematic overview of research into historical bubbles. Our analysis reveals that there is no coherent approach to the study of bubbles and...

Do all types of information benefit the efficiency of prices in the sense that they drive them closer to fundamentals compared to the situation where information does not exist? Looking at the competitive noisy rational expectations framework, the clear answer of the literature is: yes. It...

This paper serves the purpose of empirically investigating the impact of three market anomalies: day-of-the-week effect, weekend effect and monthly effect (January and July effects) on Pakistan stock market prior and after the establishment of PSX. The paper constructed multiple regression...

This paper analyzes banks' usage of CDS. Combining bank-firm syndicated loan data with a unique EU-wide dataset on bilateral CDS positions, we find that stronger banks in terms of capital, funding and profitability tend to hedge more. We find no evidence of banks using the CDS market for capital...

I show how irrational ideas and rumors can drive asset prices - not because anyone believes them, but because they are commonly known without being common knowledge. The phenomenon is driven by short-term market participants who are well-informed about the information that others have, and who...

Speculation, in the spirit of Harrison and Kreps [1978], is introduced into a standard real business cycle model. Investors (speculators) hold heterogeneous beliefs about firm growth. Firm ownership, and thus, the firm's discount factor varies with waves of optimism and leverage. These waves...

This article studies the effects of speculation in a thinly traded commodity futures market, paying particular attention to periods characterized by high‐speculative activity of long–short speculators. Using the speculation ratio as a daily measure for long–short speculation, we employ...

The authors analyze financial interactions between chartists with bounded leverage and fundamentalists within a heterogeneous agent model, focusing on the role of fundamentalists to stabilize prices. While many related studies are solely based on simulations, the authors analytically prove that...

The valuation of risky debt is central to theoretical and empirical work in corporate finance. Although much is known on the returns and valuation of bonds, there is hardly a consensus on the risk components of the yield spreads. This article aims to investigate the effect of investor sentiment...

The authors analyze financial interactions between fundamentalists and chartists within a heterogeneous agent model, focusing on the role of fundamentalists stabilizing prices. In contrast to related studies, which are based on simulations and calculations, they analytically prove that the...

This paper contends that Marx develops in Volume III of Capital an incisive conceptual framework in which excessive credit creation, indebtedness and speculation play a critical and growing role in the reproduction of social capital on an extended basis; however, given the decentralised and...

This paper employs Granger causality tests to analyze the role of speculators using weekly COTR (commitment of traders reports) data covering the period of August 2014 to July 2017. The paper presents statistically significant evidence that the position changes of speculators, such as hedge...

We examine price discovery and liquidity provision in the secondary market for bitcoin-an asset with a high level of speculative trading. Based on BTC-e's full limit order book over the 2013-2014 period, we find that order informativeness increases with order aggressiveness within the first 10...

Cryptocurrencies lack clear measures of fundamental values and are often associated with speculative bubbles. This paper introduces a new way of testing for speculative bubbles based on StockTwits sentiment, which is used as the transition variable in a smooth transition autoregression. The...

Arguing that in the real world relatively optimistic inexperienced investors are prey for relatively pessimistic veteran traders, we formalize this intuitive conjecture as a proven proposition in a simple model. This agreement to disagree leads to a perpetual bubble, in which more experienced,...

The Bank of Korea and the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) co-hosted a conference on "Asia-Pacific fixed income markets: evolving structure, participation and pricing" on 19-20 November 2018 in Seoul, Korea. The conference marked the completion of the BIS Asian Office's two-year research...

In den Wirtschaftswissenschaften lassen sich zwei Theorietypen unterscheiden: Die "idealistische Ökonomie" geht von einem Idealzustand aus und untersucht die Bedingungen, unter denen dieser erreicht werden kann wie die Eigenschaften des "homo oeconomicus". Die "realistische Ökonomie" geht vom...