Trotz anhaltender Pandemie normalisierte sich 2021 im Vergleich zum Vorjahr das bundesdeutsche Tarifgeschehen. In der Folge erreichte auch das Arbeitskampfgeschehen wieder das Niveau der Vor-Corona-Jahre. Das Arbeitskampfvolumen lag 2021 mit rund 590.000 arbeitskampfbedingten Ausfalltagen im...

Income is an important economic indicator to measure living standards and individual well-being. In Germany, there exist different data sources that yield ambiguous evidence when analysing the income distribution. The Tax Statistics (TS) - an income register recording the total population of...

Due to the non-normality of stock returns, nonparametric rank tests are gaining accceptance relative to parametric tests in financial economics event studies. In rank tests, financial assets’ multiple day cumulative abnormal returns (CARs) are replaced by cumulated ranks. This paper proposes...

This paper studies the effect of employee job selection in a model of statistical discrimination in a competitive labor market. In an economy in which there are quality differences between groups, a surprisingly strong condition is required to guarantee discrimination against the worse qualified...

The capture ratio is a widely-used investment performance measure. We study the statistical problem of estimating the capture ratio based on a finite number of observations of a fund's returns. We derive the asymptotic distribution of the estimator and use it for testing whether one fund has a...

In this work, we develop a multi-fidelity Bayesian experimental design framework to efficiently quantify the extreme-event statistics of an input-to-response (ItR) system with given input probability and expensive function evaluations. The key idea here is to leverage low-fidelity samples whose...

Information coefficient (IC) is one of the most commonly used statistics in quantitative financial analysis that is usually defined as the correlation coefficient between a variable's predicted and actual values. In this paper, we derive the asymptotic distribution of the sample average...

Investigators of social differentials in health outcomes commonly augment incomplete micro data by appending socioeconomic characteristics of residential areas (such as median income in a zip code) to proxy for individual characteristics. However, little empirical attention has been paid to how...

We complete the investigation on the asymptotic behavior of the drift burst test statistic devised in Christensen, Oomen and Ren\`o (2020). They analysed it for an Ito semimartingale containing a Brownian component and finite variation jumps. We also account for infinite variation jumps.We show...

The article investigates the methods and conceptions of statistical inference used in business forecasting in the United States and in Europe in the 1920s. After presenting the methods and arguments used by the members of the Harvard Committee on Economic Research in the first years after its...

It is widely known that conditional covariances of asset returns change over time. Researchers adopt many strategies to accommodate conditional heteroskedasticity. Among the most popular are: (a) chopping the data into short blocks of time and assuming homoskedasticity within the blocks, (b)...

This paper demonstrates that even under ideal conditions, social experiments in general only uniquely determine the mean impacts of programs but not the median or the distribution of program impacts. The conventional common parameter evaluation model widely used in econometrics is one case where...

Trotz anhaltender Pandemie normalisierte sich 2021 im Vergleich zum Vorjahr das bundesdeutsche Tarifgeschehen. In der Folge erreichte auch das Arbeitskampfgeschehen wieder das Niveau der Vor-Corona-Jahre. Das Arbeitskampfvolumen lag 2021 mit rund 590.000 arbeitskampfbedingten Ausfalltagen im...

This study proposes a Bayesian semiparametric binary response model using Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms since this Bayesian algorithm works when the maximum likelihood estimation fails. Implementing graphic processing unit computing improves the computation time because of its efficiency...

Why does misinformation persist, and how does it distort the long-run beliefs and actions of rational agents? We study a model where receivers see an infinite stream of messages from a sender of unknown type who observes private signals about an unknown state of the world. We characterize the...

The publication presents the biographies and achievements of over 30 people who, since the beginning of the 20th century, have contributed to the development of the theory and methodology of statistical research at country level as well as internationally. The book is about statisticians who...

Oskar Anderson (1887-1960) gehörte zu den Gründungsvätern der Ökonometrie. Dieser Aufsatz fokussiert auf die Relevanz seines statistischen und ökonometrischen Werkes für die Konjunkturforschung in der Zwischenkriegszeit. Der Schwerpunkt liegt auf der Periode zwischen 1923 und 1942, die er...

Auch unter den Bedingungen der Corona-Pandemie haben nach wie vor eine Vielzahl von Arbeitskämpfen stattgefunden. Mit rund 342.000 ausgefallenen Arbeitstagen lag das Arbeitskampfvolumen im Jahr 2020 nur knapp unter dem Niveau des Vorjahres. Die Anzahl der an Arbeitskämpfen beteiligten...

Für die Kleinstadtforschung bedarf es geeigneter Daten und Methoden. Dieser Beitrag gibt einen Überblick über die Datenlage und das Methodenspektrum in der Kleinstadtforschung. Im ersten Teil wird zunächst auf die Schwierigkeit eingegangen, klare Definitionen für Kleinstädte zu finden....

We present new statistical indicators of the structure and performance of US banks from 1990 to today, geographically disaggregated at the level of individual counties. The constructed data set (20 indicators for some 3150 counties over 31 years, for a total of about 2 million data points)...

Scaling behavior measured in cross-sectional studies through the tail index of a power law is prone to a bias. This hampers inference; in particular, time variation in estimated tail indices may be erroneous. In the case of a linear factor model, the factor biases the tail indices in the left and...

An explanation of the Dunning-Kruger effect is provided which does not require any psychological explanation, because it is derived as a statistical artefact. This is achieved by specifying a simple statistical model which explicitly takes the (random) boundary constraints into account. This...

Common sense is a dynamic concept and it is natural that our (statistical) common sense lags behind the development of statistical science. What is not so easy to understand is why common sense lags behind as much as it does. We conduct a survey among Japanese students and try to understand why...

This paper applies the tool box measures of disaggregative income inequality characterization and the statistical methodology of Beach (2021) to percentile-based distribution statistics such as quintile income shares and decile means typically published by official statistical agencies. It...

As I document using evidence from a journal data repository that I manage, the datasets used in empirical work are getting larger. When we use very large datasets, it can be dangerous to rely on standard methods for statistical inference. In addition, we need to worry about computational issues....