Bayesian decisions are observationally identical to decisions with judgment. Decisions with judgment test whether a judgmental decision is optimal and, in case of rejection, move to the closest boundary of the confidence interval, for a given confidence level. The resulting decisions condition...

Return event studies generally involve several companies but there are also cases when only one company is involved. This makes the relevant testing problems, abnormal return (AR) and cumulative abnormal return (CAR), more difficult since one cannot exploit the multitude of companies (by using a...

We consider fully modified least squares estimation for systems of cointegrating polynomial regressions, i. e., systems of regressions that include deterministic variables, integrated processes and their powers as regressors. The errors are allowed to be correlated across equations, over time...

This paper is concerned with the problem of variable selection when the marginal effects of signals on the target variable as well as the correlation of the covariates in the active set are allowed to vary over time, without committing to any particular model of parameter instabilities. It poses...

It is often desired to rank different populations according to the value of some feature of each population. For example, it may be desired to rank neighborhoods according to some measure of intergenerational mobility or countries according to some measure of academic achievement. These rankings...

The exact distribution of a quadratic form in n standard normal variables, Q; say, (or, equivalently, a linear combination of independent chi-squared variates) is, except in special cases, quite complicated. This has led to many proposals for approximating the distribution by a more tractable...

In this paper, we introduce a flexible and widely applicable nonparametric entropy-based testing procedure that can be used to assess the validity of simple hypotheses about a specific parametric population distribution. The testing methodology relies on the characteristic function of the...

We propose a new specification test for assessing the validity of fuzzy regression discontinuity designs (FRD‐validity). We derive a new set of testable implications, characterized by a set of inequality restrictions on the joint distribution of observed outcomes and treatment status at the...

It is often desired to rank different populations according to the value of some feature of each population. For example, it may be desired to rank neighborhoods according to some measure of intergenerational mobility or countries according to some measure of academic achievement. These rankings...

Consider a setting where N players, partitioned into K observable types, form a directed network. Agents' preferences over the form of the network consist of an arbitrary network benefit function (e.g., agents may have preferences over their network centrality) and a private component which is...

Women are underrepresented in academia in general and economics in particular. I introduce a test to detect an under-researched form of hiring bias: implicit quotas. I derive a test under the null hypothesis of gender-blind hiring that requires no additional information about individual hires...

All parameters in structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) models are locally identified when the structural shocks are independent and follow non-Gaussian distributions. Unfortunately, standard inference methods that exploit such features of the data for identification fail to yield correct...

In many applications of the multivariate analyses of variance, the classic parametric solutions for testing hypotheses of equality in population means or multisample and multivariate location problems might not be suitable for various reasons. Multivariate multisample location problems lack a...

Permutation techniques, where one recompute the test statistic over permutations of data, have a long history in statistics and have become increasingly useful as the availability of computational power has increased. Until now, no permutation tests for examining returns to scale assumptions,...

We extend the popular bias-based test of Stock and Yogo (2005) for instrument strength in linear instrumental variables regressions with multiple endogenous regressors to be robust to heteroskedasticity and autocorrelation. Equivalently, we extend the robust test of Montiel Olea and Pflueger...

This paper proposes an adjusted-range based self-normalized tests for changes in correlation coefficient and correlation matrix. Unlike the self-normalization approach proposed by Lobato (2001) and Shao (2010), which relies on the variance of a partial sum process as the self-normalizer, here we...

We develop an analytical framework to appropriately model and adequately analyze A/B tests in presence of nonparametric non-stationarities in the targeted business metrics. A/B tests, also known as online randomized controlled experiments, have been used at scale by data-driven enterprises to...

This paper revisits the Lagrange multiplier type test for the null hypothesis of no cross-sectional dependence. We propose a unified test procedure and its power enhancement version, which show robustness for a wide class of panel model contexts. Specifically, the two procedures are applicable...

In this paper, we propose an intersection-union test for multivariate forecast accuracy based on the combination of a sequence of univariate tests. The testing framework evaluates a global null hypothesis of equal predictive ability using any number of univariate forecast accuracy tests under...

As George Box [1976] put it, "all models are wrong but some are useful." This is especially true for derivative models, As sown during the 2008 financial crisis, most collaterized debt obligation (CDO) models failed to reflect the true risk of those structures. Therefore, one always faces the...

Estimation of discrete outcome specifications involves significant hypothesis testing, including multiple modelling decisions which could affect results and interpretation. Model development is generally time-bound, and decisions largely rely on experience, knowledge of the problem context and...

We propose a bounds testing procedure (BTP) with a battery of tests for the existence of a non-degenerate co-integrating relationship in levels, for long panels. It is a natural extension to panel data of the respective approach in time series as described by Pesaran, Shin and Smith (2001) and...

VaR remains important in market risk management as Basel keeps most of the backtesting based on 1% VaR. Comparative backtesting as practiced in the current literature suffers from a major double problem. On the one hand, the score functions, although strictly consistent, may assign very good or...