The capital markets are sensitive to geopolitical events. It is important to provide evidence of reactions to specific geopolitical events in order to identify general patterns and effective risk management strategies. This study follows the event study approach to assess the reactions of...

The financial markets, shaped by dynamic forces, including macroeconomic trends and technological advancements, are influenced by a multitude of factors impacting the S&P 500 stock index, a pivotal indicator in the US equity markets. This paper highlights the significance of understanding the...

Investing in stocks and shares is a common strategy to pursue potential gains while considering future financial needs, such as retirement and children's education. Effectively managing investment risk requires thoroughly analyzing stock market returns and making informed predictions....

This study makes use of a very long time series of the S&P Composite Index, checking once more that the rates of return benefit from aggregational normality. It performs unit root tests as well as elementary statistical tests that take advantage of normality. It finds that mean blur is not...

The capital markets are sensitive to geopolitical events. It is important to provide evidence of reactions to specific geopolitical events in order to identify general patterns and effective risk management strategies. This study follows the event study approach to assess the reactions of...

The financial markets are highly influential and any change in the economy can be reflected in stock prices and thus have an impact on stock indices. The relationship between stock indices and the way they are affected by extreme phenomena is important for defining diversification strategies and...

The notion of compensation for systematic risk is well ingrained in finance and constitutes the basis for numerous empirical tests. The concept an increase in systematic risk is accompanied by an increase in the required risk premium has strong intuitive content: The more risk there is to be...

Understanding the determinants of central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) is crucial for ensuring financial stability, fostering innovation, and framing effective policies associated with the digitalization of currency. Therefore, we study how financial markets and safe haven assets can affect...

This study focuses on the precise forecasting of stock price movement to determine returns, diversify risk, and demystify existing opportunities. It also aims to gauge the difference in terms of the stock volatility of various pharma companies before and during the pandemic era. The prediction...

We develop a statistical-methodological framework for a set of core commercial real estate market indicators, which consists of a market price index, a gross rent index, and a net rental yield index as well a vacancy rate. We argue that the indicators should be (macro-)consistent, meaning that...

Purpose This study aims to explore the asymmetric effects of macroeconomic factors on the profitability of large-cap companies in an emerging country like Colombia, using the Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) Colombia index as the basis. Design/methodology/approach We employ a...

This study applies Gradient Boosting Machines (GBMs) and principal component regression (PCR) to forecast the closing price of the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE) All-Share Index (ALSI), using daily data from 2009 to 2024, sourced from the Wall Street Journal. The models are evaluated under...

This study aims to identify the common indices having an impact on the SPV of BRICS countries during crises. To address this, the monthly data retrieved from the database of the Global Economic Monitor (GEM), World Bank, IMF International Financial Statistics data, and OECD in the period of...

This study delves into the dynamics of the Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index (GSE-CI) over the period from 2011 to 2022, a symbolic emerging market index that presents unique challenges and opportunities for financial analysis. We characterize the GSE-CI using advanced analytical tools such...

This paper examines the effects of climate policies and energy shocks on mean and volatility spillovers between green and brown stock price indices in five countries (Canada, India, Japan, the UK and the US). More specifically, bivariate GARCH-BEKK models including dummy variables controlling...

To address a key issue in functional time series analysis on testing the randomness of an observed series, we propose an IID test for functional time series by generalizing the Brock-Dechert-Scheinkman (BDS) test, which is commonly used for testing nonlinear independence. Similarly to the BDS...

This study examines the impact of investor attention on portfolio volatility and sectoral risk spillovers in Borsa Istanbul. We use advanced econometric models, including E-GARCH-X, GJR-GARCH-X, and multivariate BEKK-GARCH-X, and analyze daily data from January 2004 to June 2024. We find that...

This study analyzes the dynamic connectedness between the Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (BDTI) and sector indexes in the stock exchanges of the BRIC countries, focusing on the chemical, oil, and raw materials sectors. Using daily data from January 1, 2015, to September 30, 2024, the analysis reveals...

Forecasting stock markets is challenging due to the influence of various internal and external factors compounded by the effects of globalization. This study introduces a data-driven approach to forecast S&P 500 returns by incorporating macroeconomic indicators including gold and oil prices, the...

This study explores the presence of hidden market regimes in a sector-specific stock index within the Thai equity market. The behavior of such indices often deviates from broader macroeconomic trends, making it difficult for conventional models to detect regime changes. To overcome this...

Volatility modelling is a key feature of financial risk management, portfolio optimisation, and forecasting, particularly for market indices such as the JSE Top40 Index, which serves as a benchmark for the South African stock market. This study investigates volatility modelling of the JSE Top40...

This paper examines tail connectedness between various exchange-traded funds (ETFs) focused on artificial intelligence (AI) and some traditional assets such as bonds, equities, Bitcoin, and oil, as well as the VIX uncertainty index, using US daily data over the period from 1 January 2023 to 23...

As investors increasingly use Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) criteria, a key challenge remains: ESG data is typically reported annually, while financial markets move much faster. This study investigates whether incorporating annual ESG scores can improve monthly stock return...

This study investigates the return propagation dynamics between cryptocurrencies and emerging market sectoral indices (EMSI), focusing on portfolio impact from Bitcoin, Ethereum, and two gold-backed cryptocurrencies (PAXG and X8X). Using data from 2019 to 2024, we apply a novel DCC-GARCH-based...