Purpose - This paper aims to examine how bank stress tests affect bank tax planning. Design/methodology/approach - The study uses US bank stress test bank size thresholds and a regression discontinuity design to investigate the effect of the Dodd-Frank Act and the instituted bank stress tests on...

This report presents the results of a literature review on stress tests developed and applied in non-food supply chains. The primary focus of the project is on quantitative and qualitative methodologies applied in the literature for stress testing non-food supply chains, their advantages and...

The FSAP team undertook a thorough top-down corporate and bank solvency, bank liquidity stress tests as well as analysis of interconnectedness using mid-2023 data. This note covers the methodology and results of the scenario-based solvency test, the single factor sensitivity analysis, the...

The Technical Assistance (TA) mission, conducted in Victoria, Seychelles, from May 2 to 17, 2023, assisted authorities with macroprudential stress testing and climate risk analysis. The stress testing focused on strengthening the solvency and liquidity frameworks: (i) for solvency, considering...

We develop a novel stress testing framework to quantify the risks to the German banking sector from the green transition. Our methodology combines a macro-level and a micro-level approach to calculate scenario-dependent probabilities of default and losses. The macro approach leverages...

This paper documents the extension of the system-wide stress testing framework of the ECB with the insurance sector for a more thorough assessment of risks to financial stability. The special nature of insurers is captured by the modelling of the liability side and its loss absorbing capacity of...

We study the credit risk of banks in Germany from lending to non-financial firms. We model changes in Expected Credit Loss, which is derived from the guidelines in the IFRS 9 accounting standard. We map the accounting model to a dataset with individual loans as the unit of observation...

In this paper, we propose a new framework to jointly calibrate cyclical and structural capital requirements. For this, we integrate a non-linear macroeconomic model and a stress test model. In the macroeconomic model, the severity of the scenarios depends on the level of cyclical risk....

The Association of Mutual Funds of India (AMFI), under the direction of the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI), provided open access to various risk parameters with respect to MidCap and SmallCap funds for the first time from February 2024. Our study utilizes AMFI datasets from...

In this paper, we propose a new framework to jointly calibrate cyclical and structural capital requirements. For this, we integrate a non-linear macroeconomic model and a stress test model. In the macroeconomic model, the severity of the scenarios depends on the level of cyclical risk....

The expansion of central bank balance sheets has become a critical topic in the wake of the Global Financial Crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. Central banks have taken unprecedented measures to ensure price stability and financial stability, particularly when traditional policy tools were...

This report provides a brief summary of the purpose and findings of a technical assistance (TA) mission that was intended to review and evaluate the Reserve Bank of India (RBI)'s stress test model suite, which took place in April 2023. The RBI's model suite was found to be strong and well...

This report summarizes the content and findings of a technical assistance (TA) mission that was reviewing and evaluating the Reserve Bank of India (RBI)'s stress test model suite. The RBI's model suite was found to be strong and well developed in numerous respects. The most noteworthy...

During two visits in 2023-24, the IMF mission implemented a set of recommendations made by a previous technical assistance mission in May 2022 which were aimed at improving the solvency stress model of the Superintendency of Banks, Panama (SBP). The mission also provided training on the design...

In 2020, the European Banking Authority (EBA) launched a public consultation on future changes to the European Union wide stress test (EUWST). The EBA proposes a dual approach across four broad criteria of relevance, comparability, transparency, and cost efficiency: a supervisory leg as the...

We propose an improved methodology for modelling potential scenario paths of banks' riskweighted assets, which drive the denominator of capital adequacy ratios. Our approach centres on modelling the internal risk structure of bank portfolios and thus aims to provide more accurate estimations...

We ask if bank supervisors’ efforts to combat climate change affect banks' lending and their borrowers’ transition to the carbon-neutral economy. Combining information from the French supervisory agency’s climate pilot exercise with borrowers' emission data, we first show that banks that...

Addressing recent calls by European regulatory and supervisory authorities, we develop a new bottom-up climate risk assessment method to examine the resilience of the European banking industry regarding transitory climate risks. We illustrate our approach by estimating the impact of a 50-100 EUR...

We study a competitive banking sector in which banks choose the level of risk of their asset portfolios and, upon the public disclosure of stress test results, raise funding by promising investors a repayment. We show that competition forces banks to choose risky assets so as to promise...

This paper presents the updated macroprudential stress test for the euro area banking system, comprising around 100 of the largest euro area credit institutions across 19 countries. The approach involves modelling banks' reactions to changing economic conditions. It also examines the effects of...

This paper provides an overview of stress-testing methodologies in Europe, with a focus on the advancements made by the European Central Bank's Financial Stability Committee Working Group on Stress Testing (WGST). Over a four-year period, the WGST played a pivotal role in refining stress-testing...

Recently, there has been a growing focus on sustainability issues within the financial sector. However, quantitative analysis of social and governance aspects has been challenging due to difficulties in data modelling. With the recent regulatory updates for standardised disclosure, the next step...

This paper proposes an operational approach to stress testing, allowing one to assess the banking sector's vulnerability in multiple plausible macro-financial scenarios. The approach helps identify macro-financial risk factors of particular relevance for the banking system and individual banks...

The Luxembourg financial system is highly interconnected, diverse and complex. It has displayed a high level of resilience in the past but currently faces a backdrop of heightened economic, financial, and geopolitical uncertainty. Investment funds have grown since the 2017 FSAP, while their...

The Japanese financial system has remained resilient through a series of shocks including the COVID-19 pandemic. Japan's large and globally well-integrated financial system withstood the pandemic shock, aided by strong capital and liquidity buffers and extensive policy support. Credit provision...

The FSAP mission conducted a risk analysis for large insurance companies and retirement funds. Building on the narrative of the adverse macrofinancial scenario also used in the banking ST, the focus of the analysis in the insurance sector was on solvency. Sensitivity analyses, e.g., interest...

This paper investigates the resilience of non-financial firms in Mongolia against financial distress. Utilizing firm-level financial data from 2013 to 2022, we employed a LASSO variable selection technique and logistic regression analysis to develop a distress prediction model for these firms....

This paper examines the market reaction to the European bank stress test announcement and results release events. Using event study methodology (calculating abnormal returns on a three-day period around the event dates), we find that the market reacts differently between the announcement event...

This paper presents a technical note on bank stress testing and climate risks analysis in Maldives. Although the Maldives' economy has rebounded strongly from the pandemic-induced contraction, macro and financial vulnerabilities remain. The stress test results broadly corroborated the identified...

This study assesses euro area banks' profitability using granular stress test data from three EU-wide exercises, coordinated by the European Banking Authority, that took place in 2016, 2018, and 2021. We propose a credit portfolio-level risk-adjusted return on assets for the euro area as a whole...

Climate risk is one of the type of risks in a bank's portfolio which is not fully recognized, and its impact on the future overall risk changes is hidden due to lack of sufficient knowledge at the moment. One of the most common data comes from Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS)...

We explore the design of climate stress tests to assess and manage macro-prudential risks from climate change in the financial sector. We review the climate stress scenarios currently employed by regulators, highlighting the need to (i) consider many transition risks as dynamic policy choices;...

We explore the design of climate stress tests to assess and manage macroprudential risks from climate change in the financial sector. We review the climate stress scenarios currently employed by regulators, highlighting the need to (i) consider many transition risks as dynamic policy choices;...

Climate change has become a pressing issue that requires comprehensive and scientific understanding of its impact on the economy. Policymakers seek answers to the questions of how climate change affects economic growth, inflation, and the financial system. To design targeted policies, it is...

The study presents the results of a stress test of the Russian banking system. The main assumption of this test is an increase in the risk of overdue debts for various categories of loans. The assumptions for the stress test are formulated based on changes in the balance sheets of Russian banks...

We explore the design of climate stress tests to assess and manage macro-prudential risks from climate change in the financial sector. We review the climate stress scenarios currently employed by regulators, highlighting the need to (i) consider many transition risks as dynamic policy choices;...