The German labor market has undergone profound changes over the last decades. For a long time, the debate on structural change focused on the shift from manufacturing industries to services. This Weekly Report highlights that labor market changes are attributable to three developments: In...

Worker mobility plays a central role in facilitating structural change and addressing labour shortages in labour markets. This paper examines the incentives for workers to change jobs or occupations by analyzing subsequent gains in earnings and job satisfaction. We distinguish between different...

This paper studies the labor market impact of structural change by distinguishing between industry- and occupation-based measures of manufacturing and service employment. Using German data from 1975-2019, we find that 67% of manufacturing jobs lost in manufacturing industries are offset by new...

We study how students adjust their early career choices in response to economic crises and how these decisions affect their long-run labor market outcomes. Focusing on Sweden's deep recession in the early 1990s - which hit the manufacturing and construction sectors hardest - we first show that...

We explore the evolving significance of different production sectors within the U.S. economy since World War II and provide methods for estimating and forecasting these shifts. Using a compositional accounting approach, we find that the well-documented transition from goods to services is...

We study how students adjust their early career choices in response to economic crises and how these decisions affect their long-run labor market outcomes. Focusing on Sweden's deep recession in the early 1990s - which hit the manufacturing and construction sectors hardest - we first show that...

We study how students adjust their early career choices in response to economic crises and how these decisions affect their long-run labor market outcomes. Focusing on Sweden’s deep recession in the early 1990s - which hit the manufacturing and construction sectors hardest - we first show that...

Inequality at the top is on the rise, and labour income is a progressively larger contributor to concentration at the top. This paper investigates top earnings inequality in South Africa from a sectoral and firm-level perspective, using matched employer-employee administrative data. We also...

Over the last forty years, Latin American countries (LACs) have experienced a variety of specialization trajectories, while sharing a common pattern of weak and unstable growth. Given the accelerated premature deindustrialization path and the loss of productive capacity, manufacturing has...

Structural change means a long-term change in the composition of economic output: agriculture, industry, and services. First, we describe this process in the context of Thailand. Second, we analyse its causes using a simple, comparative static computable general equilibrium model of the Thai...

In this paper, we evaluate the potential of digitalisation to drive structural transformations toward a sustainable economy. We apply an index decomposition analysis (IDA) to understand the factors influencing energy demand in a panel of 31 high-income countries from 1971 to 2019. The IDA...

Gender gaps in employment have narrowed but remain substantial, particularly among couples. To estimate how improved female wage opportunities influence partners' employment choices, I exploit demand-driven wage changes in job tasks and German administrative data. Results indicate women respond...

We employ the WTO Global Trade Model (GTM) to generate quantitative projections on the expected long-run impact of digitalization on global trade patterns. Five trends are modelled: (i) adoption of artificial intelligence which raises productivity growth; (ii) digitalization reducing trade...

This paper analyzes whether Chinese aid and other forms of official finance affect structural transformation in low- and-middle income countries. Specifically, we employ an instrumental variables (IV) approach to causally analyze the effect on the Economic Complexity Index of 98 recipient...

African economies are undergoing significant structural transformation, transitioning from agriculture to manufacturing, services, and technology-driven industries. Driven by urbanization, technological innovation, and global trade, this shift offers opportunities for sustainable growth but...

In this discussion paper, we explore the concept of "societal innovativeness" as a key driver of transformative regional development, particularly within the context of regions facing structural weaknesses. Our explorative study delves into the multifaceted nature of societal innovativeness,...

We analyse the decline in social insurance coverage in Egypt from 2007 to 2023 to determine the extent to which it was due to compositional shifts in the structure of the economy and workforce, or to changes in coverage for specific types of jobs and workers. We conclude that only a fraction of...

This paper employs a dynamic multi-sector growth model with changing technology to study the relevance of the price and quantity dimensions involved in the technical substitution of carbon-intensive technology, that is, the low-carbon transition. For the framing of the transition, the stylized...

Industrial policies, such as infrastructure investments and export tariffs, affect the allocation of labor and incomes across sectors, attracting substantial lobbying efforts by special interest groups. Yet, the link between structural change and lobbying remains underexplored. Using more than...

This study re-assesses the validity of the quantity theory of money (QTM) for the very long sample, 1870 to 2020, for 18 industrial countries using the dataset from Jordà et al. (2017). It considers structural changes in the economic and financial sectors and changes in monetary policy...

This essay suggests that there is a need for a Catalytic Industrial Policy (CIP) aimed at maximising positive outcomes on three axes at the same time - the green, the digital and the social - in order to speed up their realisation. Respective investments need to be guided in the desired...

We extend the monitoring of structural breaks in classic cointegration proposed by Wagner and Wied (2017) to explicitly allow for fractional cointegration and breaks in these fractional relations with possible deterministic trends. To estimate the parameters we use a fully modified OLS estimator...

This paper introduces and analyses a setting with general heterogeneity in regression modelling. It shows that regression models with fixed or time-varying parameters can be estimated by OLS or time-varying OLS methods, respectively, for a very wide class of regressors and noises, not covered by...

Two prominent secular trends characterize the transformation of labor markets in industrialized countries in recent decades. First, employment has shifted from manufacturing to services. Second, the share of female employment in total employment has risen sharply. This paper documents a novel...