This study empirically investigates the impact of Inflation Targeting (IT) on nominal interest rates over the past 40 years, focusing on 10 advanced and emerging economies. By using a Binary Regime Model embedded within a Backward-Looking Taylor, our findings confirm that IT adoption has...

This paper revisits the "one-size-fits-all" challenge posed by the European Central Bank's (ECB) monetary policy within the heterogeneous economic landscape of the euro area. Using a dataset spanning from 1999Q1 to 2019Q4 for the ECB interest rate and from 2004Q4 onwards for the Wu-Xia shadow...

This paper examines how fiscal policy in the euro area reacts to monetary policy, by estimating fiscal policy reaction functions for the period 1999-2019. Inclusion of the monetary policy stance in the fiscal reaction function, approximated by a shadow interest rate, is a relatively novel aspect...

We examine the state dependence of monetary policy transmission and the parameters of the Phillips curve, dynamic IS equation, and Taylor rule across four regimes defined by joint deviations of inflation from the Federal Reserve's target and output from potential. The analysis uncovers important...

We present determinacy bounds on monetary policy in the sticky information model. We find that these bounds are more conservative here when the long run Phillips curve is vertical than in the standard Calvo sticky price New Keynesian model. Specifically, the Taylor principle is now necessary...

This paper estimates various Taylor rules for Norway based on the observed money market rate (Nibor). We begin by examining standard Taylor rules from the literature, applying them to Norwegian data to assess their fit. Next, we estimate a benchmark Taylor rule that is included in Norges Bank's...

This study empirically investigates the impact of Inflation Targeting (IT) on nominal interest rates over the past 40 years, focusing on 10 advanced and emerging economies. By using a Binary Regime Model embedded within a Backward-Looking Taylor, our findings confirm that IT adoption has...

We model the Fed’s decisions about interest rate adjustments via the flexible nonlinear empirical similarity (ES) concept which relies on ideas of case-based reasoning particularly suitable for decision making under uncertainty. We postulate that the Fed’s adjustment decision in a given...

This paper investigates how the ECB's monetary policy affects consumers' perceptions about the credibility of the inflation target. Monetary policy is assessed by the gap between the actual policy rate and a Taylor rate to approximate the interest rate expected by the public. Drawing on survey...

Subdued economic activity and low tax revenues, especially during crises, drive borrowing and increase public debt. During these periods, to ease the debt burden, central banks may face pressure to deviate from policy targets. Under fiscal dominance, debt sustainability relies on low interest...

In this paper, we propose a new set of indicators of Central Bank's communication to estimate speech intensity in five different macroeconomic fields: monetary conditions, financial stability, external competitiveness, labour and social conditions and economic activity. In addition, we also...

In this paper, we review the recent economic outlook, policy decisions and communication of the ECB against the backdrop of growing uncertainty. First, inflation heterogeneity has receded with inflation, thus contributing to facilitating the design of monetary policy. Second, monetary easing is...

In this paper, we review the recent economic outlook, policy decisions and communication of the ECB against the backdrop of growing uncertainty. First, inflation heterogeneity has receded with inflation, thus contributing to facilitating the design of monetary policy. Second, monetary easing is...

This paper estimates various Taylor rules for Norway based on the observed money market rate (Nibor). We begin by examining standard Taylor rules from the literature, applying them to Norwegian data to assess their fit. Next, we estimate a benchmark Taylor rule that is included in Norges Bank's...

How do the President and the Congress affect the policy choices of the Federal Open Market Committee, the primary policymaking arm of the Federal Reserve System (the Fed)? I draw on a commonly used tool for estimating the sensitivity of Fed responses to output and inflation - the Taylor rule -...

This paper extends prior research by introducing a novel econometric framework- Regime-Dependent Granger Causality-to analyse the systematic elements of United States (US) monetary policy. Employing vector autoregressive models allowing for temporary Granger causality, we examine the association...

Subdued economic activity and low tax revenues, especially during crises, drive borrowing and increase public debt. During these periods, to ease the debt burden, central banks may face pressure to deviate from policy targets. Under fiscal dominance, debt sustainability relies on low interest...

The research question relates to the quantitative impact of government bond purchases of the European Central Bank on inflation and other economic variables at the zero lower bound. At the core is a standard New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model with several financial...

The Federal Reserve has been publishing federal funds rate prescriptions from Taylor rules in its Monetary Policy Report since 2017. The signals from the rules aligned with Fed action on many occasions, but in some cases the Fed opted for a different route. This paper reviews the implications of...

This paper revisits the "one-size-fits-all" challenge posed by the European Central Bank's (ECB) monetary policy within the heterogeneous economic landscape of the euro area. Using a dataset spanning from 1999Q1 to 2019Q4 for the ECB interest rate and from 2004Q4 onwards for the Wu-Xia shadow...

This paper investigates the implications of monetary policy rules during the surge and subsequent decline of inflation in the euro area and compares them to the interest rate decisions of the European Central Bank (ECB). It focuses on versions of the Taylor (1993) and Orphanides and Wieland (OW)...

We study the global dynamics of the fully stochastic nonlinear version of the New Keynesian model and analyze the efficacy of various policies as equilibrium selection tools in this context. First, we unveil a new class of equilibria, characterized by selffulfilled beliefs about output...