The future development of population size and structure is of importance since planning in many areas of politics and business is conducted based on expectations about the future makeup of the population. Countries with both decreasing mortality and low fertility rates, which is the case for...

This contribution proposes a simulation approach for the indirect estimation of age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) and the total fertility rate (TFR) for Germany via time series modeling of the principal components of the ASFRs. The model accounts for cross-correlation and autocorrelation...

In theory, network profits are independent of the reciprocal termination rates when operators charge nondiscriminatory call prices (Laffont, Rey and Tirole, 1998). Additionally, termination rates can be used to subsidize subscriber acquisition cost. This issue is typically known as a "waterbed...

In today's era of big data, deep learning and artificial intelligence have formed the backbone for cryptocurrency portfolio optimization. Researchers have investigated various state of the art machine learning models to predict Bitcoin price and volatility. Machine learning models like recurrent...

This paper describes a moments estimator for a standard state-space model with coefficients generated by a random walk. A penalized least squares estimation is linked to the GLS (Aitken) estimates of the corresponding linear model with time-invariant parameters. The VC estimates are moments...

Purpose - The relationship between military expenditure and economic growth is complex. The purpose of this paper is to examine this relationship in India. Design/methodology/approach - The design of this study is descriptive in the theoretical part, and quantitative in the applied one. The...

This paper describes a moments estimator for a standard state-space model with coefficients generated by a random walk. A penalized least squares estimation is linked to the GLS (Aitken) estimates of the corresponding linear model with time-invariant parameters. The VC estimates are moments...

The phenomenon of enterprises bankruptcy is an extremely complex process of economic, legal, social and even psychological nature. In the developed countries, the first studies on forecasting bankruptcy date to the early 20th century. In Central and Eastern Europe, due to, among other factors,...

Seit Dezember 2018 liegen die Daten der VGR in Form einer Zeitreihe für die Jahre 1995 - 2018 nach den Konzepten des Europäischen Systems Volkswirtschaftlicher Gesamtrechnungen 2010 (ESVG 2010) vor. Es handelt sich dabei um revidierte Werte. Die Realwerte werden als verkettete Volumenindizes...

It has been argued that credit-to-GDP gaps (credit gap) are useful early warning indicators for banking crises. In addition, the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision has also advocated using these gaps - estimated using a one-sided Hodrick-Prescott filter with a smoothing parameter of 400,000...

Economic sanctions are intensively used by international institutions to enforce political objectives. Since 2006 the EU has been implementing general sanctions against the whole economy of Iran, affecting their trade relations. Since 2007, and following the imposition of sanctions by the UN...

This paper is one of the limited studies to investigate rebound effects in sectoral electricity consumption and the specific case of New Zealand. New Zealand, like other OECD economies, has aimed for energy efficiency improvements and reduced electricity consumption from 9.2 MWh per capita in...

After showing that the distribution of the S&P 500's distortion, i.e. the log difference between its real stock market index and its real fundamental value, is bimodal, we demonstrate that agentbased financial market models may explain this puzzling observation. Within these models, speculators...

The Paris Agreement establishes a mechanism to allow a Party to benefit from greenhouse gases emissions reductions conducted in a host Party to fulfil its nationally determined contribution. In this context, the objective of this paper is to improve the understanding of carbon offsets price...

The objective of the EU Timber Regulation (EUTR), enforced since March 2013, is for importers and exporters to commit to reducing the risk of trading timber products from illegal sources in the EU. EUROSTAT time series on monthly trade with wood products from January 1988 to August 2016 were...

This paper describes a moments estimator for a standard state-space model with coefficients generated by a random walk. This estimator does not require that disturbances are normally distributed, but if they are, the proposed estimator is asymptotically equivalent to the maximum likelihood...

The purpose of this working paper is to investigate if determinants have an impact on inflation rate in Eurozone Countries by using times series data for 17 countries from year 1997 to 2017, in yearly basis in total 375 observations. The study used quantitative research approach and secondary...

We consider the problem of testing for an omitted multiplicative long-term component in GARCH-type models. Under the alternative there is a two-component model with a short-term GARCH component that fluctuates around a smoothly time-varying long-term component which is driven by the dynamics of...

We provide a trend prediction classification framework named the random sampling method (RSM) for cryptocurrency time series that are non-stationary. This framework is based on deep learning (DL). We compare the performance of our approach to two classical baseline methods in the case of the...

Nicole Storp und Tobias Kordsmeyer, Universität Göttingen, beschäftigen sich mit der dynamischen Entwicklung von Target-Salden der Deutschen Bundesbank. Im Zeitraum vom 1. Januar 1999 bis 31. Dezember 2018 stellen die Autoren drei starke Anstiege in den Target-Forderungen der Deutschen...

This paper describes a moments estimator for a standard state-space model with coefficients generated by a random walk. This estimator does not require that disturbances are normally distributed, but if they are, the proposed estimator is asymptotically equivalent to the maximum likelihood...

This article explores the fitting of Autoregressive (AR) and Threshold AR (TAR) models with a non-Gaussian error structure. This is motivated by the problem of finding a possible probabilistic model for the realized volatility. A Gamma random error is proposed to cater for the non-negativity of...

Taking Turkey's experience as a case study, this study provides further insights into the evaluation of time-varying Granger-causal relationships in the trade openness and economic performance nexus. We reinvestigated the Granger-causal relationships between trade openness and real economic...

The exchange rate is one of the most monitored economic variables reflecting the state of the economy in the long run, while affecting it significantly in the short run. However, prediction of the exchange rate is very complicated. In this contribution, for the purposes of predicting the...

This paper studies the behaviour of Bitcoin returns at different sample frequencies. We consider high frequency returns starting from tick-by-tick price changes traded at the Bitstamp and Coinbase exchanges. We find evidence of a smooth intra-daily seasonality pattern, and an abnormal trade- and...

The objective of the EU Timber Regulation (EUTR), enforced since March 2013, is for importers and exporters to commit to reducing the risk of trading timber products from illegal sources in the EU. EUROSTAT time series on monthly trade with wood products from January 1988 to August 2016 were...

Purpose - This paper aims to study the determinants of private investment in Egypt while accounting for uncertainty associated with financing decisions of the firm using time series analysis over the period 1982-2015. The analysis is based on Tobin's (1969) Q-theory of investment. The variables...

This paper describes a moments estimator for a standard state-space model with coefficients generated by a random walk. A penalized least squares estimation is linked to the GLS (Aitken) estimates of the corresponding linear model with time-invariant parameters. The VC estimator is a moments...

Having forecast of real estate sales done correctly is very important for balancing supply and demand in the housing market. However, it is very difficult for housing companies or real estate professionals to determine how many houses they will sell next year. Although this does not mean that a...

For theoretical and statistical reasons, it is important to decompose some series into dual components in order to understand their permanent and temporary movements as well as their dual co-movements. This study, therefore, aims to introduce the dual adjustment approach for the nonstationary...