The COVID-19 pandemic may lead to a resurgence of the euro crisis. In this context, Italy seems particularly vulnerable: support for the euro is lower than in most other eurozone countries, and a possible exit could have serious consequences for the common currency. Based on a novel survey...

This paper examines the relationship between the voting behaviour of European Parliament members on the Common Consolidated Corporate Tax Base (CCCTB) proposal and economic characteristics of their respective countries. We are concerned about the political and economy factors behind policy and...

This paper examines the impact of economic uncertainty shocks on the populist voting behavior in the panel dataset of 24 European Union (EU) countries for the period from 1980 to 2020. In so doing, we focus on the shares of total populism, right-wing populism, and left-wing populism votes as...

The trade war initiated by the Trump administration is the largest since the US imposed the Smoot-Hawley tariffs in the 1930s and was still raging when he left office. We analyze how the trade war impacted the 2020 US Presidential election. Our results highlight the political salience of the...

We study the impact of the first American party committed to redistribution from rich to poor on anti-Black media content in the 1890s. The Populist Party sought support among poor farmers, regardless of race, providing the segregationist Democratic establishment in the South with an incentive...

Why did some countries vote not to condemn Russia's invasion of Ukraine at the United National General Assembly's first emergency session since 1997? Our study examines different economic, political, geographic and historical reasons behind the voting behaviour of several countries in favour of...

In a model of simultaneous voting, Feddersen and Pesendorfer (1998) consider the possibility that jurors vote strategically, rather than sincerely reflecting their individual information. This results in the counterintuitive result that a jury is more likely to convict the innocent under a...

We develop a numerical model that simulates the evolution of a virtual population with an incentive and ability-based wage, capital yield from savings, social welfare system, and total income subject to taxation and political turnovers. Meta-heuristics, particle swarm optimization (PSO) in...

Exploiting the random allocation of asylum seekers to different locations in Germany, we study the impact of right-wing voting on refugees' integration. We find that in municipalities with more voting for the right-wing AfD, refugees have worse economic and social integration. These impacts are...

Exploiting the random allocation of asylum seekers to different locations in Germany, we study the impact of right-wing voting on refugees' integration. We find that in municipalities with more voting for the right-wing AfD, refugees have worse economic and social integration. These impacts are...

Why are the poor susceptible to clientelism, and what factors shield them from the influence of vote buying? We explore the role of both formal and informal social networks in shaping the likelihood of being targeted with private inducements. We argue that when the poor lack access to formal...

James Michael Curley, a four-time mayor of Boston, used wasteful redistribution to his poor Irish constituents and incendiary rhetoric to encourage richer citizens to emigrate from Boston, thereby shaping the electorate in his favor. Boston as a consequence stagnated, but Curley kept winning...

We review the efficacy of three approaches to forecasting elections: econometric models that project outcomes on the basis of the state of the economy; public opinion polls; and election betting (prediction markets). We assess the efficacy of each in light of the 2004 Australian election. This...

Conventional wisdom is that good economic conditions or expansionary fiscal policy help incumbents get re-elected, but this has not been tested in a large cross-section of countries. We test these arguments in a sample of 74 countries over the period 1960-2003. We find no evidence that deficits...

Information affecting a candidate's reputation might have significant electoral consequences. Do candidates respond to the release of information? Using Brazilian elections and audits as an exogenous source of information, I show that both incumbent and challenger increase their campaign...

I study place based policies under local political economy constraints, asking whether transfers across regions can foster regional convergence. I show that, if local workers can vote over the within-region allocation of the transfers, these may be spent unproductively and be ineffective in...

Money politics and poverty are intertwined ordeals that stand against democracy in most African countries. In the case of the Nigerian state, the effort of avoiding the practice of vote buying and vote selling remains an effort that continually beckons for serious and conservative attention....

This paper examines the relation between GDP growth, Divisia money growth, CPI inflation, financial stress, and the United Kingdom's economic policy uncertainty in the context of its departure from the European Union. We employ two Bayesian VAR models which account for the extreme observations...

It is well understood that even small differences in population can have a disproportionate impact on representation in the U.S. House of Representatives after a decennial census because of the peculiarities of rounding rules that require integer allocations. While the COVID-19 pandemic can be...

This paper introduces excluding outlier voters (EOV) as a general mechanism for revealing true preferences in social choices, and for discouraging voters from strategic voting and manipula-tion. This mechanism is general in that it can be implemented with any voting system. The paper...

Many democracies around the world feature pervasive clientelist practices. Inequality is often considered a key determinant of these practices. By reducing inequality, redistributive policies may therefore undermine clientelism. However, by inducing gratitude and reciprocity among beneficiaries,...

Overview: A field experiment isolates the downstream effects of being mobilized to vote in a ranked choice vote (RCV) election. After people are mobilized to vote in their first RCV election, they report more positive evaluations of RCV across multiple dimensions.Abstract: Ranked choice voting...

We estimate the impact of a large anti-poverty cash transfer program, the Uruguayan PANES, on political support for the government that implemented it. Using the discontinuity in program assignment based on a pre-treatment eligibility score, we find that beneficiary households are 11 to 14...

While it is widely believed by academics, politicians, and the popular press that incumbent congressmen are rewarded by the electorate for bringing federal dollars to their district, the empirical evidence supporting that claim is extremely weak. One explanation for the failure to uncover the...

How can we motivate "good" politicians — those that will carry out policy that is responsive to citizens' preferences — to enter politics? In a field experiment in Pakistan, we vary how political office is portrayed to ordinary citizens. We find that emphasizing pro-social motives for...

We use new annual data on gasoline taxes and corporate income taxes from U.S. states to analyze whether politicians avoid tax increases in election years. These data contain 3 useful attributes: (1) when state politicians enact tax laws, (2) when state politicians implement tax laws on consumers...

This piece builds on my work from 2019, when I explored how different aspects of American political life in the Trump era were being rebranded in the book Political Brands. Branding in politics is very similar to commercial branding: repeat a message ad infinitum until the intended audience...

We present a model of the Political Budget Cycle in which voters and politicians have preferences for different types of government spending. Incumbents try to influence voters by changing the composition of government spending, rather than overall spending or revenues. Rational voters may...

What is the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the 2020 U.S. presidential election? Guided by a pre-analysis plan, we estimate the effect of COVID- 19 cases and deaths on the change in county-level voting for Donald Trump between 2016 and 2020. To account for potential confounders, we include a...