Timely updates of business cycle fluctuations-commonly represented by movements in the output gap-help policymakers make informed decisions on the appropriate course of action. Unfortunately, business cycle assessments often suffer from lags in actual gross domestic product data releases. This...

Forecasting stock markets is challenging due to the influence of various internal and external factors compounded by the effects of globalization. This study introduces a data-driven approach to forecast S&P 500 returns by incorporating macroeconomic indicators including gold and oil prices, the...

Several indicator and index frameworks have been reported to assess management efficiency and promote transparency, facilitating decision-making and innovation. However, they cannot be applied in cities with limited information, making them impractical. This study proposes a Sustainable Urban...

The volatility of exchange rates is considered to be an important measure of a country's economic vulnerability and has a direct or indirect causal relationship with a large number of macroeconomic variables. The aim of this study is to analyze the macroeconomic variables in the economic...

Slovenia and other EU member states are subject to the Macroeconomic Imbalances Procedure. This article aims to evaluate the macroeconomic imbalances of the Slovenian economy and its synchronisation with other EU countries from 2013 to 2022. Eleven Scoreboard indicators are used to monitor...

This paper focuses on identifying useful indicators for nowcasting GDP in Sweden. We analyze 35 monthly indicators spanning the period from 1993 to 2023. Additionally, we evaluate the group-wise performance of these indicators. The analysis is conducted using mixed-data sampling (MIDAS) and...

East Asia and the Pacific remains one of the most dynamic regions in the world. Yet, when measured against its own past performance and potential, the region has under-performed. Growth in most economies - and even output in several Pacific Island economies - has not returned to pre-pandemic...

This study conducts a comprehensive analysis of the effects of changes in financial conditions on the economy of Türkiye, for which financial conditions indices were constructed. To examine possible changes in the relationship between financial conditions and the real economy due to the unique...

Purpose This study aims to elucidate the dynamics of monetary and fiscal policy interactions in Brazil, focusing on the impacts of positive shocks in government consumption and interest rates. By comparing rational and behavioral agent responses, it clarifies how these frameworks influence gross...

This paper introduces a novel composite energy poverty indicator, the M2LIHC, which combines elements of the twice-median expenditure share (2M) and Low Income High Cost (LIHC) measures. Using a unique dataset merging the Czech Household Budget Survey and EU-SILC data from 2017-2022, we...

The paper compares two forecasts of Slovak GDP, the first with high-frequency data and the second without them. We utilize the last observation from the economic activity index acting as a short-term GDP forecast. We use data from 2000 to 2024 in weekly frequencies and have 27 variables related...

Deutschland auf dem langen Weg zu smarter Regulierung. Als Wirtschaftsstandort hat Deutschland in den letzten Jahren kontinuierlich an Attraktivität verloren. War das Land aus Unternehmenssicht seit jeher ein Standort mit hohen Steuern und Arbeitskosten, so hat sich der Kostennachteil bei den...

This Policy Brief introduces the Gini Trade Index (GTI) as a new trade synthetic key performance indicator capable of capturing the different distribution of trade values across firm characteristics and across countries. The new indicator replicates the well-known features of the traditional...

This study explores the volatility spillover effects between clean and dirty cryptocurrencies and key financial indices, specifically focusing on Green Finance Indices (such as solar, wind, and nuclear) and Economic Indices (like the Baltic Dry Index and CRB Index). Employing the diagonal BEKK...

This study investigates the contributions of economic freedom indicators to Indonesia's economic growth from 1995 to 2022, applying the Solow growth model within both static and dynamic frameworks. Using Robust Least Squares (RLS) and dynamic methods - such as Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares...

Accurate Gross Domestic Product (GDP) prediction is essential for economic planning and policy formulation. This paper evaluates the performance of three machine learning models-Random Forest Regression (RFR), XGBoost, and Prophet-in predicting Somalia's GDP. Historical economic data, including...

Indonesia's economy remains resilient, buoyed by strong domestic demand and a recovering service sector. The current account deficit widened, driven by moderating terms of trade and cyclical factors that intensified services and income outflows. After two years of consolidation, the fiscal...

Reflecting the shift from purely quantitative economic growth to broader socio-environmental sustainability, this study proposes a framework for assessing sustainable development (SD) by integrating Maslow's hierarchy of needs with Bossel's classification system. As economic development...

This special topic investigates the extent to which selling price expectations (SPE) from the harmonised EU programme of business surveys contain leading information for forecasting short-term developments in the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP). The analysis is based on a...

The EU Biodiversity Strategy for 2030 states that "at least €20 billion a year should be unlocked for spending on nature" through mobilising private and public funding at national and EU level. This report assesses the feasibility of building an indicator to monitor progress towards this...

This paper describes the Bundesbank's weekly financial stress indicator for Germany. The indicator condenses several financial market variables into a summary measure of financial stress. It represents a contemporaneous, market-based indicator that captures the materialisation of systemic risk...

The Fraser Institute's Economic Freedom of the World index and the Heritage Foundation's Index of Economic Freedom allow researchers to empirically test the hypothesis that greater economic freedom leads to higher economic growth. Government size is a component of both indices. A larger...

We introduce a frequency-domain forecast combination method that leverages time- and frequencydependent predictability to enhance forecast accuracy. By decomposing both the target variables (equity premium and real GDP growth) and predictor variables into distinct frequency components, this...