Derzeit prüft die EU-Kommission den Antrag der Ukraine auf eine EU-Mitgliedschaft. Ein Schnellverfahren für eine Aufnahme der Ukraine in die EU ist im Gespräch, aber eher unwahrscheinlich. Die letzten EU-Erweiterungen um Bulgarien und Rumänien in 2007 und Kroatien in 2013 wurden zum Teil...

This study provides the first attempt to evaluate whether a logit early warning system (EWS) for systemic banking crises can produce better predictions when political indicators are used alongside traditional macro-financial indicators. Based on a dataset covering 32 advanced economies for the...

The aim of this paper is to evaluate current quarterly nowcasts of the gross domestic product in Bosnia and Herzegovina based on the flow of available monthly economic indicators that are available during the same quarter. The nowcasting performance indicates that it is worthwhile to include a...

In der Konjunkturprognose des ifo Instituts spielt die Analyse und Vorhersage der wirtschaftlichen Aktivität nach Wirtschaftsbereichen eine wichtige Rolle. Grund hierfür ist die detaillierte Verfügbarkeit von Konjunkturindikatoren aus der ifo Konjunkturumfrage. Für Verwendungsaggregate wie...

For central banks, it is crucial to develop and maintain risk identification frameworks that allow them to detect in good time and address potential threats to financial stability with the most appropriate policy tools. This paper reviews the main indicators developed for this purpose by the...

In order to investigate the economic performance of business processes, simulations are performed. These simulations determine values of key performance indicators (KPIs ). We sought a valid solution to integrate KPIs in our Process Analysis Studio (PAS). Our investigation aims for a concept...

This article examines the performance of various financial variables as predictors of subsequent U.S. recessions. Series such as interest rates and spreads, stock prices, currencies, and monetary aggregates are evaluated singly and in comparison with other financial and non-financial indicators....

The Monetary Policy Committee of the Bank of England’s reliance on faulty indicators has led to suboptimal policy decisions and masked what is actually happening in the economy. The introduction of quantitative easing (QE) in 2009 has made the money supply relevant again and made a discussion...

Sustainability in the tourism sector has become a principal goal for destination management and for the strengthening of the competitiveness and attractiveness of destinations (Bell & Morse, 2012). There is, however, no absolute scale of spatial analysis for sustainability. In this paper, we...

The statistical community will come under increasing pressure from policy makers to help address the technical challenges of generating and translating data into policy useful information to support the implementation of global development goals. In the water sector, a key issue that will...

Can we use newspaper articles to forecast economic activity? Our answer is yes and, to this end, we propose a brand new economic dictionary in Italian with valence shifters, and we apply it to a corpus of about two million articles from four popular newspapers. We produce a set of high-frequency...

The 2012 Chicago Area Study surveyed 229 center directors in 33 ZIP Codes on the West and North sides of Chicago. All centers and preschools that served three and four year olds in these ZIP Codes were eligible, except those located in the public schools. Eligible settings included preschools in...

The study aims to reveal the relationship between Twitter sentiments indicators and stock market indicators, with reference to BSE and NSE in India. This study used secondary daily time series data, for a period of two years, from 01.01.2018 to 31.12.2019. Statistical tools, such as Descriptive...

The optimal weights on indicators in models with partial information about the state of the economy and forward-looking variables are derived and interpreted, both for equilibria under discretion and under commitment. The private sector is assumed to have information about the state of the...

This paper studies the value of broad commodity price indexes as predictors of consumer price inflation in the G-7 industrial countries. After an introduction, the paper discusses the theoretical relationship between commodity and consumer prices and the conditions under which, in general, one...

This paper evaluates the predictive content of a set of alternative monthly indicators of global economic activity for nowcasting and forecasting quarterly world GDP using mixed-frequency models. We find that a recently proposed indicator that covers multiple dimensions of the global economy...

I provide empirical evidence that quality-adjusted patents can identify technological innovation in small and medium-sized enterprises. Survey data on commercialization of patents is related to patent quality indicators (patent renewal, patent family size and forward citations) from archival...

This paper examines the forecasting performance of various leading economic indicators and composite indexes since 1988. in particular during the onset of the 1990 recession. The primary focus is on an experimental recession index (tile "XRI"). a composite index which provides probabilistic...

IGPA developed several Pandemic Stress Indicators, designed to evaluate the social and economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on Illinois residents. The Pandemic Stress Indicators grew out of the work on IGPA’s Task Force on the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic. One of these indicators has...

IGPA developed several Pandemic Stress Indicators, designed to evaluate the social and economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on Illinois residents. The Pandemic Stress Indicators grew out of the work on IGPA’s Task Force on the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic. One of these indicators has...

IGPA developed several Pandemic Stress Indicators, designed to evaluate the social and economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on Illinois residents. The Pandemic Stress Indicators grew out of the work on IGPA’s Task Force on the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic. One of these indicators has...

IGPA developed several Pandemic Stress Indicators, designed to evaluate the social and economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on Illinois residents. The Pandemic Stress Indicators grew out of the work on IGPA’s Task Force on the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic. One of these indicators has...

IGPA developed several Pandemic Stress Indicators, designed to evaluate the social and economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on Illinois residents. The Pandemic Stress Indicators grew out of the work on IGPA’s Task Force on the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic. One of these indicators has...

The Kauffman New Employer Business Indicators series has been compiled in an effort to provide information on new employer businesses, a subset of all entrepreneurial activity. The series provides users with measures to track trends surrounding the emergence of these businesses, their...

Several cryptocurrency (CC) indices track the dynamics of the risingCC sector, and soon ETFs will be issued on them. We conduct a qualitativeand quantitative evaluation of the currently existing CC indices. As the CCsector is not yet consolidated, index issuers face the challenge of tracking...

The study aims to reveal the relationship between Twittersentiments indicators and stock market indicators, with referenceto BSE and NSE in India. This study used secondary dailytime-series data, for a period of two years, from 01.01.2018 to31.12.2019. Statistical tools, such as Descriptive...

One should not forget the importance of risk models that are more useful from a policy prescript and diagnostic perspective. There are several risk models with heat maps providing diagnostic capability that could be complemented with measurement models, creating a composite indicator. The reason...

The composite index of leading indicators is found to be a valuable tool for predicting not only the direction but also the size of near- term changes in aggregate economic activity. This conclusion is based on assessments of the leading index as a predictor of (1) business cycle turning points...

A number of economic studies have used a proxy for world real economic activity derived from shipping costs. This measure turns out to depend on a normalization that has substantive consequences of which users of the index had been unaware prior to this paper. This paper further evaluates this...

From the perspective of an emerging country - Chile - we analyze the recommendations of the Basel Committee of Banking Supervision (BCBS) regarding the design and implementation of indicators to guide countercyclical capital buffer (CCyB) policy decisions. We analyze the sensitivity of the...

This paper attempts to develop a financial vulnerability indicator for China as a barometer for the state of financial vulnerability in the Chinese financial market, possibly for real-time application. Twelve variables from different sectors are utilised to extract a common vulnerability...

Stock markets stand as a financial mechanism that provides liquidity for firms and offers diversification benefits for investors. Stock markets in the Eastern European countries are weakform efficient which exposes them to speculative prices. This study investigates the influence of the...

The determinants and effects of bank bailout programs on the economy and society are still controversial. Using a Propensity Score Matching approach relying on 22 European countries, it was identified economic growth, economic freedom, total banking assets, and liquid assets to deposits and...

Diagnostic testing for COVID-19 is an important part of the management of the pandemic. A diagnostic testbased policy response assumes the existence of diagnostic kits on a large scale, their availability at the point of care, an efficient way to administer the tests to the economically and...

In this paper, we conduct an empirical study of how uncertainty alters fertility behavior. The precautionary motive for saving predicts that an increase in income uncertainty increases saving by reducing both consumption and fertility. We examine this prediction using a new measure of economic...

We apply text analysis to Twitter messages in Spanish to build a sentiment- based risk index for the financial sector in Mexico. We classify a sample of tweets for the period 2006-2019 to identify messages in response to positive or negative shocks to the Mexican financial sector. We use a...

The COVID-19 pandemic and induced economic and social constraints have significantly impacted the confidence of both consumers and businesses. Despite that, comprehensive studies of the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the consumer and business sentiment are still lacking. Thus, in our...