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Year of publication
Subject
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Wirtschaftsprognose 12,119 Economic forecast 10,949 Prognoseverfahren 3,762 Forecasting model 3,698 Wirtschaftslage 1,821 Macroeconomic performance 1,761 Prognose 1,757 Theorie 1,663 Theory 1,643 Frühindikator 1,532 Leading indicator 1,511 Forecast 1,459 Wirtschaftswachstum 1,399 Economic growth 1,344 Welt 1,164 World 1,108 USA 1,025 United States 923 Wirtschaftspolitik 793 Deutschland 783 Konjunktur 779 Economic policy 685 EU-Staaten 659 Business cycle 648 EU countries 637 Zeitreihenanalyse 612 Time series analysis 576 Germany 544 Wirtschaftsindikator 498 Economic indicator 482 Makroökonometrie 463 Nationaleinkommen 463 National income 458 Macroeconometrics 455 Geldpolitik 454 Schätzung 440 Monetary policy 437 Estimation 433 Bruttoinlandsprodukt 426 Gross domestic product 420
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Online availability
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Free 3,748 Undetermined 1,356 CC license 123
Type of publication
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Book / Working Paper 6,976 Article 4,742 Journal 399 Database 2
Type of publication (narrower categories)
All
Article in journal 3,597 Aufsatz in Zeitschrift 3,597 Graue Literatur 3,204 Non-commercial literature 3,204 Working Paper 1,774 Arbeitspapier 1,674 Aufsatz im Buch 498 Book section 498 Collection of articles of several authors 433 Sammelwerk 433 Amtsdruckschrift 340 Government document 340 Konferenzschrift 234 Conference proceedings 167 Statistik 155 Aufsatzsammlung 129 Statistics 104 Article 94 No longer published / No longer aquired 86 Hochschulschrift 78 Research Report 56 Country report 54 Länderbericht 54 Advisory report 52 Gutachten 52 Thesis 48 Mehrbändiges Werk 42 Multi-volume publication 42 Bibliografie enthalten 36 Bibliography included 36 Collection of articles written by one author 33 Sammlung 33 Conference paper 25 Konferenzbeitrag 25 Systematic review 25 Übersichtsarbeit 25 Bibliografie 23 Rezension 22 Lehrbuch 17 Textbook 16
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Language
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English 8,890 German 1,047 Undetermined 582 Russian 407 French 406 Spanish 131 Polish 129 Italian 101 Czech 85 Slovak 83 Hungarian 46 Croatian 43 Dutch 38 Swedish 33 Portuguese 29 Norwegian 22 Danish 19 Romanian 18 Bulgarian 16 Ukrainian 13 Slovenian 11 Finnish 8 Arabic 7 Serbian 6 Lithuanian 5 Afrikaans 4 Macedonian 3 Valencian 2 Indonesian 2 Kazakh 2 Modern Greek (1453-) 1 Estonian 1 Japanese 1 Korean 1 Malay (macrolanguage) 1 Albanian 1
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Author
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Clements, Michael P. 78 Marcellino, Massimiliano 73 Wollmershäuser, Timo 58 Timmermann, Allan 57 Giannone, Domenico 53 Nierhaus, Wolfgang 53 Kooths, Stefan 50 Clark, Todd E. 48 Lehmann, Robert 47 Hendry, David F. 43 Rossi, Barbara 43 Wohlrabe, Klaus 43 Michelsen, Claus 42 Holtemöller, Oliver 41 Tober, Silke 40 Hohlfeld, Peter 39 Lahiri, Kajal 39 Rietzler, Katja 37 Kapetanios, George 34 Engerer, Hella 33 Wolfers, Justin 33 Jannsen, Nils 32 Sekhposyan, Tatevik 32 Baldi, Guido 31 Herzog-Stein, Alexander 31 Stephan, Sabine 31 Theobald, Thomas 31 Franses, Philip Hans 30 Fritsche, Ulrich 29 Stekler, Herman O. 29 Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens 28 Groll, Dominik 28 Welfe, Władysław 28 D'Agostino, Antonello 27 McCracken, Michael W. 27 Schorfheide, Frank 27 Junker, Simon 26 Dany-Knedlik, Geraldine 25 Gorodnichenko, Yuriy 24 Heinisch, Katja 24
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Institution
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OECD 168 International Monetary Fund / Research Dept 112 National Bureau of Economic Research 100 World Bank 69 World Bank Group 38 European Commission / Directorate-General for Economic and Financial Affairs 35 International Monetary Fund 35 International Monetary Fund / African Dept 34 European Central Bank 29 Europäische Kommission / Generaldirektion Wirtschaft und Finanzen 27 International Monetary Fund / Middle East and Central Asia Dept 27 International Monetary Fund / Asia and Pacific Dept 24 Weltbank 23 International Monetary Fund / Western Hemisphere Dept 22 Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose 20 International Monetary Fund / European Dept 19 Wiener Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsvergleiche 19 Internationaler Währungsfonds 18 Weltbankgruppe 18 Jerome Levy Economics Institute 16 Niederlande / Centraal Planbureau 16 Institute of Policy Studies <Singapur> 13 Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW) 12 Österreichisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung 12 Institut für Höhere Studien 11 Prognos AG 11 USA / Congress / Joint Economic Committee 11 GKI Gazdaságkutató Rt. <Budapest> 10 Institut Narodnochozjajstvennogo Prognozirovanija <Moskau> 10 Konjunkturinstitutet <Stockholm> 10 Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) Mannheim 9 Economist Intelligence Unit <London> 9 Nihon Keizai Kenkyū Sentā <Tokio> 9 Nihon-Sōgō-Kenkyūsho <Tokio> / Keizai-Gakubu 9 ProgTrans AG Basel 9 Republička Zajednica za Znanstveni Rad SR Hrvatske 9 Republički Zavod za Društveno Planiranje SR Hrvatske <Zagreb> 9 USA / Congress / House of Representatives / Committee on the Budget 9 Belarus / Ministerstvo ėkonomiki 8 Institute of Southeast Asian Studies 8
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Published in...
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International journal of forecasting 301 OECD Economic Outlook: Statistics and Projections 116 NBER working paper series 95 Ifo Schnelldienst 90 Regional Economic Outlook 89 Journal of forecasting 85 Discussion paper / Centre for Economic Policy Research 76 Regional economic outlook 76 Studies on Russian economic development : the official journal of the Institute of Economic Forecasting, Russian Academy of Sciences 74 NBER Working Paper 72 Working paper / National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. 72 European economy 71 Wirtschaftsdienst : Zeitschrift für Wirtschaftspolitik 71 World economic outlook 66 Working paper 60 ECB Working Paper 56 IMF working papers 55 World Bank E-Library Archive 55 World Economic Outlook 54 Working paper series / European Central Bank 49 Economic Updates and Modeling 48 ifo Schnelldienst 47 Economic modelling 46 Journal of business & economic statistics : JBES ; a publication of the American Statistical Association 44 Monatsberichte / WIFO, Österreichisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung 44 European economic forecast 42 DIW weekly report : economy, politics, science : a policy bulletin from the German Institute for Economic Research 40 Global economics paper 40 ifo Dresden berichtet 39 Empirical economics : a journal of the Institute for Advanced Studies, Vienna, Austria 38 Economics letters 37 Journal of applied econometrics 37 Proceedings of the Business and Economic Statistics Section / American Statistical Association : papers presented at the annual meeting of the American Statistical Association, ... under the sponsorship of the Business and Economic Statistics Section 37 EIU special report 36 CESifo working papers 35 Report / IMK, Institut für Makroökonomie und Konjunkturforschung 34 Ekonomický časopis : časopis pre ekonomickú teóriu, hospodársku politiku, spoločensko-ekonomické prognózovanie 33 Business report / UTEP Border Region Modeling Project 32 Analyses et prévisions / Institut "Créa" de Macroéconomie Appliquée, Université de Lausanne 31 Journal of macroeconomics 31
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Source
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ECONIS (ZBW) 11,733 EconStor 255 RePEc 119 OLC EcoSci 9 USB Cologne (EcoSocSci) 2 ArchiDok 1
Showing 1 - 50 of 12,119
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Forecasting with the help of survey information
Brenna, Federica; Budrys, Žymantas - 2025
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BOK-look: a semi-structural model for Korea's open economy and monetary policy analysis
Jeong, Seungryul; Kang, Seokil; Cho, Hyungbae; Yoon, Jinwoon - 2025
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Behavioral impulse responses
Kelly, Bryan T.; Malamud, Semyon; Siriwardane, Emil N. - 2025 - This version: November 7, 2024
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Konjunkturprognose Deutschland, Frühjahr 2025
Berlemann, Michael; Hinze, Jörg - 2025
Die deutsche Wirtschaft entwickelte sich im Winterhalbjahr 2024/25 weiterhin schwach, da sich im unsicheren Vorfeld der Neuwahlen im Februar 2025 die privaten Verbraucher und Unternehmen weiter zurückhielten, zudem gingen die Exporte weiter zurück. Bei der Neuwahl erhielt die Union die...
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Fiscal consolidation hampered by sluggish GDP growth : economic outlook for 2025 and 2026
Ederer, Stefan; Schiman-Vukan, Stefan - 2025
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An Evaluation of World Economic Outlook Forecasts : Any Evidence of Asymmetry?
Aktuğ, Emrehan - 2025
Using a large cross-country dataset covering over 150 countries and more than 10 macroeconomic variables, this study examines the consistency of IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) forecasts with the full information rational expectations (FIRE) hypothesis. Similar to Consensus Economics forecasts,...
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War and peace: how economic prospects drive conflictuality
Jiang, Shuguang; Villeval, Marie-Claire; Zhang, Zhengping; … - 2025
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World Economic Outlook Update, January 2025 : Global Growth: Divergent and Uncertain
International Monetary Fund / Research Dept - 2025
Global growth is projected at 3.3 percent both in 2025 and 2026, broadly unchanged from the October 2024 World Economic Outlook (WEO) forecast with an upward revision in the United States offsetting downward revisions elsewhere. The near-term outlook is characterized by divergent paths, while...
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Österreichs Wirtschaft stabilisiert sich 2025 : Interimsprognose für Österreich
Fenz, Gerhard; Graf, Bernhard; Prammer, Doris; Reiss, Lukas - 2025
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Global and regional long-term climate forecasts : a heterogeneous future
Gadea, María Dolores; Gonzalo, Jesús - 2025
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Inflation forecasting in turbulent times
Ertl, Martin; Fortin, Ines; Hlouskova, Jaroslava; Koch, … - In: Empirica : journal of european economics 52 (2025) 1, pp. 5-37
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Identifying useful indicators for nowcasting GDP in Sweden
Karlsson, Sune; Mazur, Stepan; Raftab, Mariya - 2025
This paper focuses on identifying useful indicators for nowcasting GDP in Sweden. We analyze 35 monthly indicators spanning the period from 1993 to 2023. Additionally, we evaluate the group-wise performance of these indicators. The analysis is conducted using mixed-data sampling (MIDAS) and...
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Economic forecasting with German newspaper articles
Berger, Tino; Wintter, Simon - In: Journal of forecasting 44 (2025) 2, pp. 497-512
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Regime-switching density forecasts using economists' scenarios
Moramarco, Graziano - In: Journal of forecasting 44 (2025) 2, pp. 833-845
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New forecasting methods for an old problem : predicting 147 years of systemic financial crises
Plessis, Emile du; Fritsche, Ulrich - In: Journal of forecasting 44 (2025) 1, pp. 3-40
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Macroeconomic real-time forecasts of univariate models with flexible error structures
Trinh, Kelly; Zhang, Bo; Hou, Chenghan - In: Journal of forecasting 44 (2025) 1, pp. 59-78
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Time-varying us government spending anticipation in real time
Goemans, Pascal; Kruse-Becher, Robinson - In: Journal of forecasting 44 (2025) 3, pp. 867-880
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Fiscal forecasting rationality among expert forecasters
Chocobar, Belen; Claeys, Peter; Poplawski-Ribeiro, Marcos - In: Journal of forecasting 44 (2025) 3, pp. 941-959
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Step by step : a quarterly evaluation of EU Commission's GDP forecasts
Heinisch, Katja - In: Journal of forecasting 44 (2025) 3, pp. 1026-1041
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Macroeconomic outlook and medium-term growth prospect after the budget
Goyal, Ashima - 2025
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Component-based dynamic factor nowcast model
O'Keeffe, Hannah; Petrova, Katerina - 2025
In this paper, we propose a component-based dynamic factor model for nowcasting GDP growth. We combine ideas from "bottom-up" approaches, which utilize the national income accounting identity through modelling and predicting sub-components of GDP, with a dynamic factor (DF) model, which is...
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Monetary policy strategy and the anchoring of long-run inflation expectations
Kiley, Michael T. - 2025 - Version 1.4
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Density forecast transformations
Mogliani, Matteo; Odendahl, Florens - 2025
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Inflation and growth forecast errors and the sacrifice ratio of monetary policy in the euro area
Ghirelli, Corinna; Pérez, Javier J.; Santabárbara, Daniel - 2025
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War and peace : how economic prospects drive conflictuality
Jiang, Shuguang; Villeval, Marie-Claire; Zhang, Zhengping; … - 2025
We experimentally study how economic prospects and power shifts affect the risk of conflict through a dynamic power rivalry game. Players decide whether to maintain the status quo or challenge a rival under declining, constant, or growing economic prospects. We find that conflict rates are...
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Policy changes leaving marks on the economy
Dany-Knedlik, Geraldine; Baldi, Guido; Brehl, Nina Maria; … - Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung / Bereich … - In: DIW weekly report : economy, politics, science : a … 15 (2025) 10/11, pp. 63-75
The German economy is stuck in a period of stagnation: Following two years of consecutive slight declines in GDP, growth is not expected for 2025 either. Weak exports, rising unemployment worries, and the resulting reserved private consumption and economic policy uncertainty are slowing the...
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Do global forecasting models require frequent retraining?
Zanotti, Marco - 2025
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Geopolitischer Umbruch verschärft Krise : Strukturreformen noch dringlicher
2025
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Forecast Sensitivity to Global Risks
Ruberl, Heather; Elderfield, Adam; Tercioglu, Remzi Baris - 2025
Developing countries face uncertainties driven by global macroeconomic variables over which they have little to no control. Key exogenous factors faced by most developing countries include interest rates in high-income countries, commodity prices, global demand for exports, and remit- tance...
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Macro Poverty Outlook
World Bank - 2025
This edition of the Macro Poverty Outlooks periodical contains country-by-country forecasts and overviews for GDP, fiscal, debt and poverty indicators for the developing countries. Macroeconomic indicators such as population, gross domestic product and gross domestic product per capita, and...
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Konjunkturschlaglicht: Auswirkungen des Haushaltsurteils
Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens; Groll, Dominik - In: Wirtschaftsdienst 104 (2024) 1, pp. 67-68
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Konjunkturprognose Deutschland: Frühjahr 2024
Berlemann, Michael; Hinze, Jörg - 2024
Wachstumsaussichten für 2024/25 bleiben gedämpf: Das Hamburgische WeltWirtschaftsInstitut (HWWI) rechnet für die deutsche Wirtschaft nach einem Rückgang des realen Bruttoinlandsprodukts von 0,3 % im Jahr 2023 für die Jahre 2024 und 2025 nur mit geringem Erholungspotenzial. Angesichts des...
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Deutsche Wirtschaft kränkelt – Reform der Schuldenbremse kein Allheilmittel
Bönke, Timm; Holtemöller, Oliver; Kooths, Stefan; … - In: Wirtschaftsdienst 104 (2024) 4, pp. 246-251
Eine zähe Konjunkturschwäche, schwindende Wachstumskräfte und ein stark erhöhter Krankenstand führen zur Unterauslastung der Produktionskapazitäten. Außen- wie binnenwirtschaftlich gibt es mehr Gegen- als Rückenwind. Hoffnung geben die Wirksamkeit der höheren Lohnabschlüsse 2024 und...
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Demographics, higher investment and the future potential growth rate of the Irish economy
Egan, Paul; McQuinn, Kieran - 2024
The Irish economy's recovery from the global financial crisis (GFC) has been striking with both economic output and the labour market registering significant increases in activity since 2013. This resurgence in performance followed the sharp decline witnessed in the economy during the period...
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ifo Konjunkturprognose Winter 2024: Deutsche Wirtschaft am Scheideweg
Wollmershäuser, Timo; Ederer, Stefan; Fourné, Friederike - In: ifo Schnelldienst 77 (2024) Sonderausgabe, pp. 01-63
In diesem Jahr wird das preisbereinigte Bruttoinlandsprodukt voraussichtlich um 0,1% gegenüber dem Vorjahr zurückgehen. Damit tritt die deutsche Wirtschaft seit nunmehr fünf Jahren auf der Stelle. Digitalisierung, Dekarbonisierung, Demografie und Deglobalisierung erfordern einen Umbau der...
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Evaluating the macroeconomic forecasting performance of the Ministry for Finance and Employment
Davison, Kurt; Camilleri, Gilmour; Spiteri, Kylie - 2024
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Regionálne trhy práce a formovanie ich politík v SR
Radvanský, Marek - 2024 - 1. vydanie
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DIW Berlin Economic Outlook : German economy stuck in limbo while trade conflicts threaten the global economy
Dany-Knedlik, Geraldine; Baldi, Guido; Brehl, Nina Maria; … - In: DIW weekly report : economy, politics, science : a … 14 (2024) 50/52, pp. 311-322
The German economy is stuck in a difficult position as it faces both slow growth as well as structural change. The continuing lack of orders in manufacturing, increasing international competition, and sluggish development in industry-related services are now affecting the labor market and...
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Indonesia Economic Prospects, December 2024
World Bank - 2024
Indonesia's economy remains resilient, buoyed by strong domestic demand and a recovering service sector. The current account deficit widened, driven by moderating terms of trade and cyclical factors that intensified services and income outflows. After two years of consolidation, the fiscal...
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Country-level implications of implementation of the African Continental Free Trade Area agreement on inequality and poverty
Vereinte Nationen / Wirtschaftskommission für Afrika - 2024
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Nowcasting made easier : a toolbox for economists
Linzenich, Jan; Meunier, Baptiste - 2024
We provide a versatile nowcasting toolbox that supports three model classes (dynamic factor models, large Bayesian VAR, bridge equations) and offers methods to manage data selection and adjust for Covid-19 observations. The toolbox aims at simplifying two key tasks: creating new nowcasting...
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ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area : September 2024
European Central Bank - 2024
Incoming data suggest a weakening in the prospects for euro area growth, but a consumption-led recovery remains the central scenario. Growth recovered in the first half of 2024 amid a boost from net trade. The latest indicators suggest growth will continue in the short run but at rates lower...
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The ECB survey of professional forecasters : Third quarter of 2024, July 2024
European Central Bank - 2024
In the ECB's Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) for the third quarter of 2024, expectations for headline HICP inflation were largely unchanged from the previous survey (conducted in the second quarter of 2024).1 Headline inflation was expected to decline from 2.4% in 2024 to 2.0% in 2025...
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European economic forecast : autumn 2024
European Commission / Directorate-General for Economic … - 2024
Following a prolonged and broad-based stagnation, the EU economy resumed growth in the first quarter of this year. As projected in spring, the expansion continued at a subdued, yet steady, pace throughout the second and third quarters, amidst further abating inflationary pressures. The...
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The ECB survey of professional forecasters : Third quarter of 2024, July 2024
European Central Bank - 2024
In the ECB's Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) for the third quarter of 2024, expectations for headline HICP inflation were largely unchanged from the previous survey (conducted in the second quarter of 2024).1 Headline inflation was expected to decline from 2.4% in 2024 to 2.0% in 2025...
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Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area : December 2024
European Central Bank - 2024
The euro area economy is set to continue its gradual recovery over the coming years, amid significant geopolitical and policy uncertainty. Although growth resumed at a moderate pace in the course of 2024, recent indicators suggest a weakening of growth in the short term, with ongoing subdued...
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Eurosystem staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area : December 2024
European Central Bank - 2024
The euro area economy is set to continue its gradual recovery over the coming years, amid significant geopolitical and policy uncertainty. Although growth resumed at a moderate pace in the course of 2024, recent indicators suggest a weakening of growth in the short term, with ongoing subdued...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015323186
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Quantile combination : an application to US GDP growth forecasts
Aastveit, Knut Are; Ellen, Saskia ter; Mantoan, Giulia - 2024
We propose an easy-to-implement framework for combining quantile forecasts, applied to forecasting GDP growth. Using quantile regressions, our combination scheme assigns weights to individual forecasts from different indicators based on quantile scores. Previous studies suggest distributional...
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Konjunkturprognose Deutschland, Winter 2024
Berlemann, Michael; Hinze, Jörg - 2024
Mit den Querelen in der Ampel-Koalition und deren schließlicher Beendigung haben sich die Unsicherheiten in der zweiten Jahreshälfte 2024 weiter erhöht. Private Verbraucher und vor allem Investoren halten sich weiter zurück. Nach den Revisionen des Statistischen Bundesamts gegenüber ersten...
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Are USDA forecasts optimal? : a systematic review
Massa, Olga Isengildina; Karali, Berna; Irwin, Scott H. - In: Journal of agricultural and applied economics : JAEE 56 (2024) 3, pp. 496-527
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