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Year of publication
Subject
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Wirtschaftsprognose 8,698 Economic forecast 7,537 Prognoseverfahren 2,137 Forecasting model 2,080 USA 1,289 United States 1,194 Theorie 1,164 Theory 1,146 Wirtschaftslage 1,105 Macroeconomic performance 1,048 Frühindikator 968 Leading indicator 946 Wirtschaftswachstum 927 Economic growth 880 Prognose 737 Welt 706 World 651 Deutschland 619 Wirtschaftspolitik 617 Economic policy 518 Konjunktur 518 Forecast 501 Business cycle 396 Germany 392 EU-Staaten 383 Russland 378 Russia 374 EU countries 362 Makroökonometrie 348 Macroeconometrics 340 Wirtschaftsentwicklung 306 Zeitreihenanalyse 303 Wirtschaftsindikator 297 Geldpolitik 295 Economic indicator 281 Monetary policy 280 Time series analysis 269 Nationaleinkommen 264 National income 259 China 245
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Online availability
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Free 1,897 Undetermined 582
Type of publication
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Book / Working Paper 4,636 Article 3,678 Journal 384
Type of publication (narrower categories)
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Article in journal 2,709 Aufsatz in Zeitschrift 2,709 Graue Literatur 2,613 Non-commercial literature 2,613 Working Paper 1,318 Arbeitspapier 1,222 Collection of articles of several authors 433 Sammelwerk 433 Aufsatz im Buch 431 Book section 431 Amtsdruckschrift 372 Government document 372 Konferenzschrift 211 Conference proceedings 166 Statistik 141 Statistics 102 No longer published / No longer aquired 86 Article 84 Aufsatzsammlung 82 Hochschulschrift 71 Country report 55 Länderbericht 55 Advisory report 50 Gutachten 50 Thesis 48 Research Report 47 Mehrbändiges Werk 45 Multi-volume publication 45 Bibliografie enthalten 36 Bibliography included 36 Collection of articles written by one author 33 Sammlung 33 Systematic review 24 Übersichtsarbeit 24 Commentary 23 Kommentar 23 Bibliografie 19 Lehrbuch 17 Textbook 16 Handbook 13
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Language
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English 5,581 German 923 Undetermined 639 Russian 406 French 381 Polish 127 Spanish 126 Italian 93 Czech 84 Slovak 82 Hungarian 45 Croatian 43 Dutch 35 Swedish 31 Portuguese 29 Norwegian 21 Danish 18 Romanian 17 Bulgarian 16 Ukrainian 13 Slovenian 10 Finnish 8 Arabic 7 Serbian 6 Lithuanian 5 Afrikaans 4 Macedonian 3 Valencian 2 Kazakh 2 Modern Greek (1453-) 1 Estonian 1 Indonesian 1 Japanese 1 Korean 1 Malay (macrolanguage) 1 Albanian 1
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Author
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Nierhaus, Wolfgang 50 Marcellino, Massimiliano 48 Clements, Michael P. 43 Timmermann, Allan 42 Wollmershäuser, Timo 41 Lehmann, Robert 37 Tober, Silke 36 Giannone, Domenico 35 Hohlfeld, Peter 35 Kooths, Stefan 33 Michelsen, Claus 33 Rietzler, Katja 33 Wohlrabe, Klaus 31 Welfe, Władysław 29 Theobald, Thomas 28 Wolfers, Justin 28 Herzog-Stein, Alexander 27 Jannsen, Nils 27 Stephan, Sabine 27 Rossi, Barbara 26 Hendry, David F. 25 Holtemöller, Oliver 24 Pesaran, M. Hashem 23 Clark, Todd E. 22 Kuntze, Oscar-Erich 22 Engerer, Hella 21 Kapetanios, George 21 McCracken, Michael W. 21 Stekler, Herman O. 21 Baldi, Guido 20 Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens 20 Groll, Dominik 20 Junker, Simon 20 D'Agostino, Antonello 19 Dixon, Peter B. 19 Fichtner, Ferdinand 19 Schorfheide, Frank 19 Zarnowitz, Victor 19 Zitzewitz, Eric 19 Fiedler, Salomon 18
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Institution
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National Bureau of Economic Research 43 World Bank 42 OECD 27 Weltbank 20 Europäische Kommission / Generaldirektion Wirtschaft und Finanzen 18 Internationaler Währungsfonds 16 Jerome Levy Economics Institute 16 Wiener Institut für Internationale Wirtschaftsvergleiche 16 Projektgruppe Gemeinschaftsdiagnose 14 Institute of Policy Studies <Singapur> 13 Weltbankgruppe 13 Niederlande / Centraal Planbureau 12 Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung (ZEW) 12 Prognos AG 11 Österreichisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung 11 GKI Gazdaságkutató Rt. <Budapest> 10 USA / Congress / Joint Economic Committee 10 Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) Mannheim 9 Institut für Höhere Studien 9 Konjunkturinstitutet <Stockholm> 9 Nihon-Sōgō-Kenkyūsho <Tokio> / Keizai-Gakubu 9 ProgTrans AG Basel 9 Republička Zajednica za Znanstveni Rad SR Hrvatske 9 Republički Zavod za Društveno Planiranje SR Hrvatske <Zagreb> 9 Stellenbosch University / Bureau for Economic Research 9 Belarus / Ministerstvo Ėkonomiki 8 Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys 8 Economist Intelligence Unit <London> 8 Frankreich / Commissariat Général du Plan 8 Institut Narodnochozjajstvennogo Prognozirovanija <Moskau> 8 Institute of Southeast Asian Studies 8 USA / Congress / Budget Office 8 USA / Congress / House of Representatives / Committee on the Budget 8 Credit Suisse 7 Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung 7 Erste Group Bank AG (Vienna) 7 Institut Mirovoj Ėkonomiki i Meždunarodnych Otnošenij 7 Naučno-Issledovatelʹ'kij Ėkonomičeskij Institut <Minsk> 7 Nihon Keizai Kenkyū Sentā <Tokio> 7 Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der Gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung 7
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Published in...
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International journal of forecasting 185 Ifo Schnelldienst 89 Discussion paper / Centre for Economic Policy Research 75 Studies on Russian economic development : the official journal of the Institute of Economic Forecasting, Russian Academy of Sciences 73 Working paper / National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. 69 Wirtschaftsdienst : Zeitschrift für Wirtschaftspolitik 60 Journal of forecasting 52 ifo Schnelldienst 46 Monatsberichte / WIFO, Österreichisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung 44 ECB Working Paper 43 Global economics paper 40 NBER working paper series 39 ifo Dresden berichtet 39 Proceedings of the Business and Economic Statistics Section / American Statistical Association : papers presented at the annual meeting of the American Statistical Association, ... under the sponsorship of the Business and Economic Statistics Section 37 EIU special report 36 Ekonomický časopis : časopis pre ekonomickú teóriu, hospodársku politiku, spoločensko-ekonomické prognózovanie 33 Report / IMK, Institut für Makroökonomie und Konjunkturforschung 33 Working paper series / European Central Bank 32 EIU economic prospects series 30 Economics letters 29 Journal of business & economic statistics : JBES ; a publication of the American Statistical Association 29 Journal of macroeconomics 29 IMF working papers 26 World Bank E-Library Archive 26 Ėkonomist : ežemesjačnyj naučno-praktičeskij žurnal 26 DIW weekly report : economy, politics, science : a policy bulletin from the German Institute for Economic Research 25 Economic modelling 25 Empirical economics : a journal of the Institute for Advanced Studies, Vienna, Austria 25 NBER Working Paper 25 Regional Economic Outlook 25 Bulletin / Bank of Finland 24 Ifo-Schnelldienst 22 Kiel Institute economic outlook 22 Monthly labor review : MLR 22 Problems of economic transition 22 The Australian economic review 22 Finance and economics discussion series 21 Working paper 21 Economic Updates and Modeling 20 Est-ovest : rivista di studi sull'integrazione europea 20
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Source
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ECONIS (ZBW) 8,336 EconStor 231 RePEc 119 OLC EcoSci 9 USB Cologne (EcoSocSci) 2 ArchiDok 1
Showing 1 - 50 of 8,698
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Nowcasting real GDP in Tunisia using large datasets and mixed-frequency models
Ben Rhomdhane, Hagher; Benlallouna, Brahim Mehdi - 2022
This study aims to construct a new monthly leading indicator for Tunisian economic activity and to forecast Tunisian quarterly real GDP (RGDP) using several mixed-frequency models. These include a mixed dynamic factor model, unrestricted mixed-data sampling (UMIDAS), and a threepass regression...
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Economic projections for Canada and the provinces, 2019-2038
Arif, Abrar - 2022
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IW Berlin economic outlook : summer upswing to follow winter slump
Baldi, Guido; Berenberg-Gossler, Paul; Engerer, Hella; … - In: DIW weekly report : economy, politics, science : a … 12 (2022) 7/8, pp. 53-64
The Omicron wave of the coronavirus has impacted economies worldwide, resulting in a bleak winter. Although restrictions on economic and public life have been less severe than at the beginning of 2021 in many places-mainly due to the progress of vaccination campaigns-and there are prospects of...
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News media versus FRED-MD for macroeconomic forecasting
Ellingsen, Jon; Larsen, Vegard Høghaug; Thorsrud, Leif … - In: Journal of applied econometrics 37 (2022) 1, pp. 63-81
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Forecasting with panel data : estimation uncertainty versus parameter heterogeneity
Pesaran, M. Hashem; Pick, Andreas; Timmermann, Allan - 2022
We develop novel forecasting methods for panel data with heterogeneous parameters and examine them together with existing approaches. We conduct a systematic comparison of their predictive accuracy in settings with different cross-sectional (N) and time (T) dimensions and varying degrees of...
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European economy forecast ; 2022, Winter (2022)
2022
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Le modèle HERMREG bottom-up un modèle multirégional de l'économie belge
Baudewyns, Didier; Lutgen, Vanessa - 2022
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Le fonctionnement du modèle HERMREG bottom-up : description à l'aide de variantes
Baudewyns, Didier; Lutgen, Vanessa - 2022
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Real-time forecasts of economic growth
Sandu, Marcel Antonio; Viziniuc, Mădălin - 2022
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Forecasting real GDP growth for Africa
Franses, Philip Hans; Welz, Max - In: Econometrics : open access journal 10 (2022) 1, pp. 1-16
We propose a simple and reproducible methodology to create a single equation forecasting model (SEFM) for low-frequency macroeconomic variables. Our methodology is illustrated by forecasting annual real GDP growth rates for 52 African countries, where the data are obtained from the World Bank...
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Nowcasting the Maltese economy with a dynamic factor model
Ellul, Reuben; Ruisi, Germano - 2022
This paper describes a dynamic factor model for the Maltese economy. The model mainly serves as a tool to timely provide the Central Bank of Malta with nowcasts as well as short-term forecasts of the growth rate of the real gross domestic product, which in turn are used as an input in the...
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Finding DORY
Landsem, Jørgen; Njølstad, Erlend; Paulsen, Kenneth … - 2022
This paper describes the semi-structural model DORY used by Norges Bank as a link between raw data, sector experts and the core policy model NEMO. While the primary objective in NEMO is to analyse business cycle fluctuations and monetary policy, DORY is used to identify the underlying trends in...
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Macroeconomic forecasting in a multi-country context
Bai, Yu; Carriero, Andrea; Clark, Todd E.; Marcellino, … - 2022 - This version: January 2022
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Fiscal uncertainty : the thankless task of forecasting Asia's fiscal accounts
Panizza, Ugo - In: The sustainability of Asia’s debt : problems, …, (pp. 239-268). 2022
This chapter describes and quantifies fiscal risk in advanced and developing economies. Forecast errors in gross domestic product (GDP) growth explain nearly half of fiscal risk in advanced economies. However, errors in growth forecasts are less important in explaining fiscal risk in low- and...
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Nowcasting durante la pandemia : un apartado para Argentina
Blanco, Emilio; Dogliolo, Fiorella; Garegnani, María Lorena - 2022
We forecast economic activity in Argentina on a quarterly real-time basis using dynamic factors models (DFM) (Blanco et al. 2018) and evaluate their forecasting performance during the COVID19 pandemic of 2020. We compare the results of forecasts based on a pre-pandemic estimation of the...
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Longer-term growth prospects for CESEE
Schreiner, Josef - 2022
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Varför har arbetstagar- och arbetsgivarorganisationer olika förväntningar om lönetillväxt?
Kiss, Tamás; Kladivko, Kamil; Lunander, Anders; … - 2022
Arbetstagarorganisationernas förväntningar på lönetillväxten ligger systematiskt högre än arbetsgivarorganisationernas i den så kallade Prospera-enkäten. I denna artikel analyseras dessa skillnader ekonometriskt. Genom att beakta respondenternas förväntningar rörande inflation och...
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Sectoral digital intensity and GDP growth after a large employment shock : a simple extrapolation exercise
Gallipoli, Giovanni; Makridis, Christos A. - In: The Canadian journal of economics : the journal of the … 55 (2022) S1, pp. 446-479
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Varför har arbetstagar- och arbetsgivarorganisationer olika förväntningar om lönetillväxt?
Kiss, Tamás; Kladivko, Kamil; Lunander, Anders; … - 2022
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Patterns in IMF Growth Forecast Revisions : A Panel Study at Multiple Horizons
Hadzi-Vaskov, Metodij; Ricci, Luca A.; Werner, Alejandro M. - 2022
This paper investigates the performance of the IMF WEO growth forecast revisions across different horizons and country groups. We find that: (i) growth revisions in horizons closer to the actual are generally larger, more volatile, and more negative; (ii) on average, growth revisions are in the...
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Forecasting Italian GDP Growth with Epidemiological Data
Aprigliano, Valentina; Borin, Alessandro; Conteduca, … - 2022
The Covid-19 epidemic affected the ability of traditional forecasting models to produce reliable scenarios for the evolution of economic activity. We combine macroeconomic variables with epidemiological indicators to account for the Covid-19 shock and predict the short-term evolution of Italian...
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Real-Time Forecasting with a (Standard) Mixed-Frequency VAR During a Pandemic
Schorfheide, Frank; Song, Dongho - 2022
We resuscitated the mixed-frequency vector autoregression (MF-VAR) developed in Schorfheide and Song (2015, JBES) to generate macroeconomic forecasts for the U.S. during the COVID-19 pandemic in real time. The model combines eleven time series observed at two frequencies: quarterly and monthly....
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Is There Job Polarization in Developing Economies? A Review and Outlook
Martins-Neto, Antonio; Mathew, Nanditha; Mohnen, Pierre; … - 2022
This paper analyses the evidence of job polarization in developing and emerging economies. We carry out an extensive literature review, revealing that job polarization in these countries is only incipient compared to other advanced economies. We then examine the possible moderating aspects...
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An Optimal Forecasting Method of Passenger Traffic in Greek Coastal Shipping
Sitzimis, Ioannis - 2022
Purpose: The main goal of this study is to exact an optimal forecasting method by answering the research question: which is the best model for capturing short-term seasonal components of passenger traffic in Greek coastal shipping? Design/methodology/approach: There are not a lot of scientific...
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Machine Learning in Macroeconomics : Forecasting in the Presence of Instabilities
Baek, Yaein - 2022
In the presence of instabilities in economics, such as the global financial crisis in 2008 and the recent COVID-19 pandemic, we face challenges in forecasting macroeconomic and financial variables. Recently forecasters have turned their attention to Machine Learning (ML), which has become an...
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Development of Early Forecasting System for Flood Prediction
Ranit, Dr. Amitkumar; Gudadhe, Sangita - 2022
Flood occurred due to heavy and uneven rainfall which damages human lives and economic growth, destruction of property and vandalization of environment. Prediction of flood loss reduces property damages, yield of crop and loss of life. Development of early warning system reduced disaster risk....
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Using Fractional Discrete Verhulst Model to Forecast Fujian's Electricity Consumption in China
Zhou, Chenyu; Qin, Zhilin; Wang, Jianhong - 2022
Electricity consumption is China's main energy consumption and an important indicator of economic performance. Forecasting electricity consumption plays an increasingly important role in economic development. In order to solve this problem, a fractional order discrete Verhulst model was proposed...
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Are Some Forecasters Really Better Than Others? A Note
Hounyo, Ulrich; Lahiri, Kajal - 2022
In this paper we use bootstrap approach to test the null hypothesis thatall forecasters in the U.S. Surveys of Professional Forecasters (SPF) have equalability. Our bootstrap procedure captures any potential cross-sectional andserial correlation in the forecast errors while preserving the...
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Forecast Performance in Times of Terrorism
Benchimol, Jonathan; El-Shagi, Makram - 2022
Governments, central banks and private companies make extensive use of expert and market-based forecasts in their decision-making processes. These forecasts can be affected by terrorism, a factor that should be considered by decision-makers. We focus on terrorism as a mostly endogenously driven...
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Forecasting Brazilian GDP Under Fiscal Foresight and Nonfundamentalness with a Noncausal Fiscal VAR
Borelli, Luan; Vonbun, Christian - 2022
Due to the occurrence of fiscal foresight, conventional fiscal VAR models are naturally inclined to suffer from the phenomena of nonfundamentalness and noncausality, which may imply biased estimates. These problems have been widely identified in the fiscal literature, however until recently...
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Forecasting Model For Gross Domestic Product In Azerbaijan
Shafizade, Elnure; Aslanova, Nigar - 2022
In economics and statistics, there are many various indicators that measure the volume of national production. These indicators are used in making important decisions about economic stability or instability in the country. The most informative of these indicators is gross domestic product (GDP)....
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Forecast Revisions as Instruments for News Shocks
Cascaldi-Garcia, Danilo - 2022
Upon arrival of macroeconomic news, economic agents update their beliefs about the long-run fundamentals of the economy. I show that signals about the agents’ long-run expectations, proxied by the economic outlook revisions of professional forecasters, convey sufficient information to identify...
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Forecasting with Panel Data : Estimation Uncertainty Versus Parameter Heterogeneity
Pesaran, M. Hashem; Pick, Andreas; Timmermann, Allan - 2022
We develop novel forecasting methods for panel data with heterogeneous parameters and examine them together with existing approaches. We conduct a systematic comparison of their predictive accuracy in settings with different cross-sectional (N) and time (T) dimensions and varying degrees of...
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Is Broader Better? A Monetary Approach to Forecasting Economic Activity
Ellington, Michael; Michalski, Marcin - 2022
This paper investigates whether the use of broader Divisia monetary aggregates improves money's performance in forecasting economic activity within a time-varying parameter vector autoregressive ( TVP - VAR ) framework. We evaluate entire predictive densities from several alternative models of...
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After-Effects of the Covid-19 Pandemic : Prospects for Medium-Term Economic Damage
Das, Sonali; Wingender, Philippe; Barrett, Philip; … - 2022
The COVID-19 pandemic has led to a severe global recession with differential impacts within and across countries. This paper examines the possible persistent effects (scarring) of the pandemic on the economy and the channels through which they may occur. History suggests that deep recessions...
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Macroeconomic Forecasting in a Multi-country Context
Clark, Todd; Carriero, Andrea; Marcellino, Massimiliano … - 2022
In this paper we propose a hierarchical shrinkage approach for multi-country VAR models. In implementation, we consider three different scale mixtures of Normals priors — specifically, Horseshoe, Normal- Gamma, and Normal-Gamma-Gamma priors. We provide new theoretical results for the...
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Medium-term forecast of European economic sustainable growth using Markov chains
Haller, Alina; Gherasim, Ovidiu; Bălan, Mariana; … - 2022
Economic growth is a frequently analyzed aspect, both from theoretical and empirical standpoint, under the impact of the influence factors, while the issue of economic growth was studied by applying different methods and obtaining different results. In the case of EU28, the problem of economic...
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Macrofinancial Causes of Optimism in Growth Forecasts
Carriere-Swallow, Yan; Marzluf, José - 2022
We analyze the causes of the apparent bias towards optimism in growth forecasts underpinning the design of IMF-supported programs, which has been documented in the literature. We find that financial variables observable to forecasters are strong predictors of growth forecast errors. The greater...
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Authorities’ Fiscal Forecasts in Latin America : Are They Optimistic?
Hadzi-Vaskov, Metodij; Ricci, Luca A.; Werner, Alejandro M. - 2022
Do governments in Latin America tend to be optimistic when preparing budgetary projections? We address this question by constructing a novel dataset of the authorities’ fiscal forecasts in six Latin American economies using data from annual budget documents over the period 2000-2018. In turn,...
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Innovative approaches to model and forecast of Azerbaijan’s economic growth
Shafizada, Elnure; Aslanova, Nigar - In: Marketing i menedžment innovacij : m&mi (2022) 2, pp. 198-208
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Analysis and forecast of marine economy development in China
Kedong, Yin; Liu, Zhe; Huang, Shan; Li, Junchao - In: Marine economics and management : MAEM 5 (2022) 1, pp. 1-33
Purpose - In recent years, China's marine industry has maintained rapid growth in general, and marine-related economic activities have continued to improve. The purpose of this research is to analyze the basic situation of China's marine economy development, identify the problems therein,...
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Forecasting macroeconomic indicators for Eurozone and Greece: How useful are the oil price assumptions?
Filis, George; Degiannakis, Stavros; Bragoudakis, Zacharias - 2022
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Recession forecasting with high-dimensional data
Nevasalmi, Lauri - In: Journal of forecasting 41 (2022) 4, pp. 752-764
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Evaluating heterogeneous forecasts for vintages of macroeconomic variables
Franses, Philip Hans; Welz, Max - In: Journal of forecasting 41 (2022) 4, pp. 829-839
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Nowcasting macroeconomic variables using high-frequency fiscal data
Ambriško, Róbert - 2022
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Dynamic factor models : does the specification matter?
Miranda, Karen; Poncela, Pilar; Ruiz, Esther - In: SERIEs : Journal of the Spanish Economic Association 13 (2022) 1, pp. 397-428
Dynamic factor models (DFMs), which assume the existence of a small number of unobserved underlying factors common to a large number of variables, are very popular among empirical macroeconomists. Factors can be extracted using either nonparametric principal components or parametric Kalman...
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Forecasting with panel data : estimation uncertainty versus parameter heterogeneity
Pasaran, M. Hashem; Pick, Andreas; Timmermann, Allan - 2022
Persistent link: https://ebtypo.dmz1.zbw/10013263441
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Nowcasting Bosnia and Herzegovina GDP in Real Time
2022
The aim of this paper is to evaluate current quarterly nowcasts of the gross domestic product in Bosnia and Herzegovina based on the flow of available monthly economic indicators that are available during the same quarter. The nowcasting performance indicates that it is worthwhile to include a...
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Potential output and the neutral rate in Canada : 2022 reassessment
Faucher, Guyllaume; Hajzler, Christopher; Kuncl, Martin; … - 2022 - Last updated: April 13, 2022
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Assessing global potential output growth and the US neutral rate : April 2022
Boutilier, Kyle; Carter, Thomas J.; Ekanayake, Eshini; … - 2022 - Last updated: April 13, 2022
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