This study applies machine learning methods to predict the Canadian yield curve using a comprehensive set of macroeconomic variables. Lagged values of the yield curve and a wide array of Canadian and international macroeconomic variables are utilized across various machine learning models....

We use a proprietary dataset of daily quotations of individual bonds from the period 2005-2018 to assess the appropriateness of three common yield curve intrapolation methods: Nelson-Siegel (NS), Diebold-Li (DL) and cubic splines. Spot (zero-coupon) yield curves derived from the methods are used...

This text evaluates the empirical models of the Term Structure of Interest Rates (TSIR), comparing the resulting estimates regarding goodness-of-fit, robustness to outliers, and smoothness. In addition to the descriptive statistics on these metrics, the Friedman test and the multiple comparison...

We show that the stock market price reaction to monetary policy surprises upon announcements of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is explained mostly by changes in the default-free term structure of yields, not by changes in the equity premium. We reach this conclusion based on a new...

This paper investigates how a country's economic complexity influences its sovereign yield spread with respect to the United States. Notably, a one-unit increase in the Economic Complexity Index is associated with a reduction of about 87 basis points in the 10-year yield spread. However, this...

The yield curve is widely regarded as a powerful descriptor of the economy and market expectations. A common approach to its statistical representation relies on a small number of factors summarizing the curve, which can then be used to forecast real economic activity. We argue that optimal...

We develop a new series of Canadian monetary policy shocks and analyze their impact on inflation and real GDP from 1996-2020. Our shocks are constructed as the daily change in the Nelson-Siegel yield curve factors after a monetary policy announcement. Because these shocks include information...

Affine term structure models of bond yields are important tools for analyzing fixed income markets and monetary policy. Estimators of Adrian, Crump, and Mönch (2013) and Diez de Los Rios (2015) replace time-consuming nonlinear search procedures with a set of simple linear regressions. However,...

• This study analyzes capital market reactions to Germany's recent announcement of loosening fiscal restrictions for defense and state-level spending, while establishing a €500 billion infrastructure investment fund. In particular, we examine whether surging Bund yields reflect growth...

• Diese Studie analysiert die Reaktionen der Kapitalmärkte auf Deutschlands jüngste Ankündigung, fiskalische Beschränkungen für Verteidigung und Ausgaben auf Länderebene zu lockern - und gleichzeitig ein 500-Milliarden-Euro-Investitionsfonds für Infrastruktur einzurichten. Insbesondere...

In response to the scarce evidence regarding herd behaviour in emerging and frontier debt markets, this paper investigates the potential mispricing of MENA sovereign risk. We explore whether this mispricing results from international investor herding, where MENA debt assets are collectively...

This study estimates the zero-coupon yield curves for Turkish government nominal bonds from February 2005 to June 2022 using the Nelson-Siegel-Svensson parametric model. We implement a weighting scheme in the objective function, where squared pricing errors are weighted by the inverse of the...

This study models a representative agent with generalized disappointment aversion preferences in an endowment economy. This model addresses the average upward slope in U.S. real bond yields, equity premium puzzle, and equity volatility puzzle. We integrate a two-state Markov switching process...

Based on data from Chinese corporate bonds issued between 2014 and 2023, this study examines how ESG rating disagreement affects credit spreads. The results indicate that such disagreement significantly increases spreads through financial risk and information asymmetry channels, though this...

This paper uses a tractable stochastic integrated‐assessment model to analyze the influence of climate change on asset returns across time and maturity. Quasi‐analytical, or recursive, formulas allow to price various long‐dated assets, including fixed‐income products, derivatives, and...

This paper examines the role of long-run and cyclical components of interest rate differentials in explaining the returns to currency carry strategies. We show that long-run differentials account for most of the profitability, while cyclical differentials play only a limited role. A simple...

This paper investigates the long-horizon predictive variance of an international bond strategy where a U.S. investor holds unhedged positions in constant-maturity long-term foreign bonds funded at domestic short-term interest rates. Using over two centuries of data from major economies, the...