Can anti-dumping tariffs increase employment? We compile data on all antidumping (AD) investigations in Brazil matching it to firm-level administrative employment information. Using difference-in-differences, we find that, an AD tariff decreases imports and increases employment in the protected...

This research is interested to observe from a multi-dimensional perspective the consumption effects (domestic consumption), production effects (domestic production), trade effects (imports), and revenue (government) under different tariffs simultaneously. We introduce a new model is entitled...

We provide a quantitative analysis of the distributional effects of the 2018 increase in tariffs by the U.S. and its major trading partners. We build a trade model with incomplete asset markets and households that are heterogeneous in their age, income, wealth and labor skill. When tariff...

On 24th January 2022, the Chair of AOA announced the need to maintain the good momentum of negotiations and make the best use of the extra time before the next Ministerial Conference begins. In this paper, we examine some of the so-called ‘good momentums’ and the manner these good momentums...

This paper proposes a theory that predicts low levels of protection during periods of "normal" trade volume coupled with episodes of "special" protection when trade volumes surge. This dynamic pattern of protection emerges from a model in which countries choose levels of protection in a repeated...

We examine the causal effect of tariff uncertainty on firms’ cost of debt. Our tests exploit a unique trade policy that reduces tariff uncertainty on Chinese imports without affecting the actual tariff rate: the U.S.-China Permanent Normal Trade Relations (PNTR). We find a significant drop in...

This paper empirically investigates the impact of tariffs when production is organized in global value chains. Using global input-output matrices, we construct four different tariff measures that capture the direct and indirect exposure to tariffs at different stages of the production chain for...

This paper considers tariff phase-outs in multilateral and preferential agreements. The paper finds that early GATT rounds primarily were over bindings of existing rates and that it was not until the 1962-67 Kennedy Round's 50% reduction in manufactured goods tariffs that time paths of tariff...

What does the macroeconomy look like in the aftermath of tariff changes This paper estimates impulse response functions from local projections using a panel of annual data that spans 151 countries over 1963-2014. Tariff increases are associated with persistent, economically and statistically...

We study, theoretically and empirically, how countries choose intra-bloc tariffs and preferential margins when they form Preferential Trade Agreements (PTAs). Our model indicates that countries should set systematically lower preferential margins when the bloc takes the form of a free trade area...

The aim of this study is to examine the role that tariffs could possibly play beyond an infant industry argument, by considering three scenarios on how a technological competition can evolve, an approach that is built on the principle of fairness. At Davos, World Economic Forum (2019)...

Tariff evasion by under-reporting imports declared at customs is widespread and well-documented. I argue theoretically that when the expected punishment for evading increases with the tariff rate, evasion via under-reporting may decrease when the tariff rate rises. I provide novel empirical...

National governments have incentives to intervene in international markets, particularly in encouraging export cartels and in imposing tariffs on imports from imperfectly competitive foreign firms. Although the optimal response to foreign monopoly is usually a tariff, a specific subsidy will be...

We study a screening model in which agents can under-utilize goods. We characterize implementable and optimal contracts and show that, whenever the principal values usage instrumentally, the optimal menu involves multi-part tariffs with tiers of zero marginal prices. We apply our results to...

This paper derives the dependency of optimal tariff and inflation tax on tax collection and enforcement costs. The analysis is done for a small, open economy. The existence of such costs can justify tariff and inflation tax policies as optimal revenue-raising devices. This paper suggests that...

We study, theoretically and empirically, how countries choose intra-bloc tariffs and preferential margins when they form Preferential Trade Agreements (PTAs). Our model indicates that countries should set systematically lower preferential margins when the bloc takes the form of a free trade area...

In this paper we develop some simple models of optimal tax and tariff policy in the presence of global corporations that operate in an imperfectly competitive environment. The models emphasize two important differences in the practical application of tax and tariff policy - tax, but not tariff,...

This paper analyzes the impact of a tariff on sectoral adjustments in an economy which produces two traded consumption goods, one of which is exported, and a non-traded investment good. The importance of sectoral capital intensities is emphasized. In particular, the qualitative dynamic...

After the Civil War, Congress justified high import tariffs (relative to their prewar levels)" as necessary in order to raise sufficient revenue to pay off the public debt. By the early 1880s the federal government was running large and seemingly intractable fiscal surpluses revenues" exceeded...

Using a standard complete specialization model of a small open economy within a rigorous intertemporal optimization framework with contract- based wage rigidity, we show that permanent tariffs may lead to a current account deterioration and a fall in employment, contradicting most of the...

This paper analyzes the determination of the optimal tariff under the assumption of Consistent Conjectural Variations (CCV). A general characterization of the CCV equilibrium is given. We show that (i) there are, in general, a multiplicity of such equilibria, and (ii) under certain restrictions,...

This paper analyze these effects of a tariff in an intertemporal optimizing model, emphasizing the role of capital accumulation. Three types of increases in the tariff rate are considered: (i) unanticipated permanent; (ii) unanticipated temporary; (iii) anticipated permanent. There are two main...

What does the macroeconomy look like in the aftermath of tariff changes This paper estimates impulse response functions from local projections using a panel of annual data that spans 151 countries over 1963-2014. Tariff increases are associated with persistent, economically and statistically...

In this paper we construct a Ricardian model of trade in vertically-differentiated products between a developing country and the (developed) rest of the world. Despite labour being the only factor of production in this model, tariffs (in addition to income taxes) have distributional consequences...

This paper rehabilitates the concept of effective rate of protection for use in political economy. The usual definition corresponds to no economically interesting magnitude in general equilibrium. The effective rate of protection for a sector is redefined here as the uniform tariff which is...

This paper analyzes the impact of differential tariffs on consumption and investment in a specific factors model of a small open economy in which capital is accumulated over time. Particular attention is devoted to the welfare aspects. highlighting the cost of the intertemporal distortions...

We argue that the incomplete information which the government has about domestic agents means that tariffs become an optimal instrument to protect them from import competition. We solve for the optimal government policies. subject to the political constraint of ensuring Pareto gains from trade,...

In this paper a minimal general equilibrium intertemporal model, with optimizing consumers and producers, is developed to analyze the process of real exchange rate determination. The model is completely real, and considers a small open economy that produces and consumes three goods each period....

This paper analyzes some aspects of the effects of trade restrictions (such as tariffs, quotas and quality controls) and their desirability when the quantity of the imported good is endogenous, and the foreign producer is a monopolist. It uses a fairly general model based on the work of Spence...

In this paper, we develop a unified variational inequality framework in the context of spatial price network equilibrium problems that captures world trade policies in the form of tariff rate quotas, which are two-tiered tariffs, and that have been applied in practice to numerous commodities....

We study commodity taxation in markets where firms, such as Internet Service Providers, energy suppliers and payment card platforms, adopt multi-part tariffs. We show that ad valorem taxes can correct underprovision and hence increase welfare, provided the government applies differentiated tax...

Consumers regularly have to choose between a pay-per-use and a flat-rate option. Due to the increasing number and range of (digital) services, the frequency at which consumers have to make tariff-choice decisions to use these services has become even more prevalent. Prior work has demonstrated...

Using perfectly competitive, general equilibrium models of international trade, specific import tariffs, specific export taxes, and ad valorem trade taxes are compared in a trade war. A trade war is modelled as a NE in trade policies, where each country can choose to use ad valorem trade taxes...

What are the distributional consequences of tariffs? We build a trade model with incomplete asset markets and households that are heterogeneous in their income, wealth, and labor skill. We increase US tariffs by 5 percentage points and examine several budget-neutral fiscal policies for...

This paper compares the social welfare effects of tariffs and quotas as strategic trade policy instruments in an oligopolistic industry where the domestic market demand is uncertain and the policy is chosen before the uncertainty is resolved. The uncertain demand, once realized, is assumed to be...