We develop a structural framework to identify the sources of cross-state heterogeneity in response to US tariff changes. We quantify the effects of unilaterally increasing US tariffs by 25 percentage points across sectors. Welfare changes range from −0.8 percent in Oregon to 2.1 percent in...

I examine whether suppliers modify trading strategies upon their customers’ unionization. I demonstrate that when customers unionize, suppliers experience negative stock returns and rely less on the unionized customers for sales. Results are robust to alternatively using a regression...

The Southern African Customs Union (SACU) is the most unequal region in the world. While there has been some progress in recent years, inequality has remained almost stagnant in the most unequal countries. Using an innovative framework, this report provides a systematic and comprehensive...

The implementation of the European Union’s (EU) Green Deal to reduce emissions by 2030 and to achieve climate neutrality by 2050 will have an impact on the EU’s trade policy and on its trade relations with its non-EU partners. With the ongoing decarbonisation process of European economic...

Africa as a continent has had its worst share of disease burden, coupled with poor and weak health systems, high mortality rates have been a frequent fixture. Epidemics have also been common place but the continent has not experienced a pandemic the magnitude of the Spanish flu until the advent...

AI holds the promise of being able to analyse large amounts of data faster and more reliably than humans can. So is it also possible to use AI systems to analyse information relevant to diplomatic negotiations in a way that adds significant strategic value? We explore this question through two...

The Southern African Customs Union (SACU) is the most unequal region in the world. While there has been some progress in recent years, inequality has remained almost stagnant in the most unequal countries. Using an innovative framework, this report provides a systematic and comprehensive...

The report focuses on the effect of Kyrgyzstan’s possible accession to the Customs Union (CU) and Single Economic Space (SES) on the flow of labour resources, the volume of cash remittances, labour market conditions and professional education and training in this country. For that purpose the...

The Act of Union (1707) unified England and Scotland politically and economically, formally establishing the United Kingdom of Great Britain, and a customs union throughout the island of Britain. In this paper, we examine the impact of union on British market integration using wheat prices from...

By measuring the effects of forming and joining a regional integration bloc using an augmented structural gravity model, this paper finds that the East African Community (EAC) and EAC Customs Union have significantly enhanced Tanzanian trade into EAC markets. Kenya has continued to be the main...

We study, theoretically and empirically, how countries choose intra-bloc tariffs and preferential margins when they form Preferential Trade Agreements (PTAs). Our model indicates that countries should set systematically lower preferential margins when the bloc takes the form of a free trade area...

Like most decisions about Brexit, the choice of future customs arrangements is about getting the trade-offs right. Remaining in a customs union with the EU would not just prevent disruptive border checks. It would also allow tariff-free trade to continue after the UK left the Single Market, and...

A customs union with the EU would come with significant costs to the UK’s economic, trade and foreign policies. Such an arrangement would also fail, by itself, to eliminate trade friction with the EU. To do so would also require alignment with the Single Market rules for goods. A customs union...

We study the implications of customs union formation for multilateral tariff cooperation. We model cooperation in multilateral trade policy as self-enforcing, in that it involves balancing the current gains from deviating unilaterally from an agreed-upon trade policy against the future losses...

Until NAFTA, analyses of preferential trading arrangements began by assuming a customs union with a common external tariff, and the differences between customs unions and free trade agreements (FTAs) have been little analyzed. This paper points to some of the differences between FTAs and customs...

The withdrawal of the United Kingdom (UK) from the European Union (EU) had the immediate impact of drawing an external border of the EU on the island of Ireland. With this, two issues related to Northern Ireland came into sharp focus, both of which related to the absence of a physical border,...

Following Turkey's application for EU membership in 1987, a Customs Union (CU) between Turkey and the EU, mainly covering trade in manufacturing goods and processed agricultural products, came into effect in 1995. In addition to a large agricultural sector, Turkey also specializes in the...

This paper examines the welfare implications of non-discriminatory tariff reforms by a subset of countries, which we term a nonpreferential trading club. We show that there exist coordinated tariff reforms, accompanied by appropriate income transfers between these countries, that unambiguously...

This paper considers the policy options of the West Bank and Gaza (WBG) with respect to trade and the exports of labor services. It concludes that i) a non-discriminatory trade policy (NDTP) is unambiguously superior to an FTA with Israel; ii) the WBG should pursue a NDTP with all its neighbors,...

The authors predict that the Continental Customs Union (CCU) will injure some infant industries in smaller Member States and that, if not properly designed, the small States which have wholeheartedly embraced the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) Agreement may actually hold little.The...

This paper looks empirically into the behavior of multinational firms in international oligopolistic markets with trade balance constraints. I show how a particular form of non-tariff barrier applied at the firm level can lead to an increase in trade flows in the presence of intra-firm strategic...

This paper uses computational techniques to assess whether or not various propositions that have been advanced as plausible in the literature on Customs Unions (or other regional trade agreements) may actually hold. The idea is to make probabilistic statements as to whether propositions of...

This paper compares two possible formats for free trade in the Americas: a system of spokes surrounding a U.S. hub, and a free trade area. The paper identifies the sources of welfare change, and it argues that a country's attitude towards a system depends on whether the arrangement is a...

The Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) is a Free Trade Area (FTA) regional trade agreement in Africa. Currently, Ethiopia is negotiating to join COMESA FTA. This study assesses the impact of three regional trade arrangements, COMESA FTA, customs unions, and the European...

Für Kenner der praktischen Abläufe und der Umsetzung der Europäischen Zollunion ist das Ergebnis des Sonderberichts Nr. 19/2017 wenig überraschend. Dennoch enthält der 90 Seiten umfassende Sonderbericht des EuRH (eines EU-Organs nach Art. 13 I EUV) große Sprengkraft und eine Detailtiefe an...

Die Zollverwaltungen der EU sollen zusammenarbeiten „wie eine Zollverwaltung“. Doch die Europäische Union der 28 Mitgliedstaaten (nach dem Brexit mit Ablauf des 31. Januar 2020 der EU-27) ist sehr uneinheitlich. In Deutschland hat man immer Deutschland vor Augen und dieses große, reiche...

In a three-country model of endogenous trade agreements, we study the implications of the Most Favored Nation Clause (MFN) when countries are free to form discriminatory preferential trade agreements (PTAs). While PTA members discriminate against non-member countries, MFN requires non-members to...

This contribution deals with the latest proposals regarding levying VAT in the European Union (EU) Customs Union. The present system, which has been in place since 1993 and was supposed to be transitional, splits every cross-border transaction into an exempted cross-border supply and a taxable...

In this contribution the author examines how, from a customs perspective, the integrity of the internal market is protected after the transitional phase under the Revised Protocol on Ireland/Northern Ireland. He briefly discusses the customs aspects of the Withdrawal Agreement and then examines...

This contribution places the provisions of the Treaty creating a free trade area and customs union between the Member States (Articles 28-31 TFEU) in their wider context. It then focuses on the interpretation of Article 30 in the jurisprudence of the Court of Justice of the European Union...

The implementation of a Single Customs Territory by East African Community countries is intended to ease the movement of goods across borders by cutting costs and time through harmonization and simplification of customs documents, removal of burdensome customs procedures, and automation of...

This paper empirically tests the hypothesis that trade can act as an engine of growth using panel data for the Southern African Development Community (SADC), a regional integration agreement (RIA) organization, the central objective of whose formation was the need to accelerate, foster, and...

In a three-country model of endogenous trade agreements, we study the implications of the Most Favored Nation Clause (MFN) when countries are free to form discriminatory preferential trade agreements (PTAs). While PTA members discriminate against non-member countries, MFN requires non-members to...

Objective: The objective of the article is to examine the export-led growth hypothesis in the Southern African Customs Union (SACU). Research Design & Methods: This study employs annual data on output, exports, imports, and a structural dummy variable for SACU countries, namely, South Africa,...