The natural rate of interest, often interpreted as the equilibrium real interest rate, serves as a critical benchmark for evaluating the stance of monetary policy. This paper investigates the natural rate of interest in Uzbekistan using three econometric approaches: the HLW-type model1 , a...

Wavelet coherence analysis (WCA) examines the dynamic interactions between economic policy uncertainty (EPU) in Brazil, Chile, Colombia, and Mexico and key external variables, using monthly data from 2010 to 2022. The findings reveal the following: (i) medium-term co-movements (4-16 months)...

This paper addresses the challenge of inflation forecasting by adopting a thick modeling approach that integrates forecasts from time- and frequency-domain models. Frequency-domain models excel at capturing long-term trends while also accounting for short-term fluctuations. Combining these...

This paper studies the effects of key underlying macroeconomic variables on the trend inflation rate in the USA. To do so, we consider eight structural shocks that incorporate a broad set of information for the US economy and that can be regarded as the main structural determinants of the...

Our study deals with interest rate pass-through for household and corporate deposits in the Central and Eastern European (CEE) region, focusing on the tightening cycle starting in the middle of 2021. This period is of particular interest for interest rate pass-through, as the sharp hikes by...

Climate risk refers to the risks associated with climate change and has already started to impact various sectors of the economy. In this work, we focus on the impact of physical risk on the probability of default for a firm in the agribusiness sector. The probability of default is estimated...

This paper makes a twofold contribution. First, it develops the dynamic factor model of by allowing for fractional integration instead of imposing the classical dichotomy between I(0) stationary and I(1) non-stationary series. This more general setup provides valuable information on the degree...

The Hodrick-Prescott filter is a popular tool in macroeconomics for decomposing a time series into a smooth trend and a business cycle component. The last few years have witnessed global events, such as the Global Financial Crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the war in Ukraine, that have had...

In this paper, we assess whether key relations between US interest rates have been stable over time. This is done by estimating trivariate hybrid time-varying parameter Bayesian VAR models with stochastic volatility for the three-month Treasury bill rate, the slope of the Treasury yield curve...

We expand the standard balance-of-payments-constrained (BOPC) growth rate model in three directions. First, we take into account the separate contributions of exports in goods, exports in services, overseas remittances, and foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows. Second, we use state-space...

This paper proposes a score-driven model for filtering time-varying causal parameters through the use of instrumental variables. In the presence of suitable instruments, we show that we can uncover dynamic causal relations between variables, even in the presence of regressor endogeneity which...

Motion artifacts reduce the quality of information in the electroencephalogram (EEG) signals. In this study, we have developed an effective approach to mitigate the motion artifacts in EEG signals by using empirical wavelet transform (EWT) technique. Firstly, we decompose EEG signals into...

Determining potential output and the output gap-two inherently unobservable variables-is a major challenge for macroeconomists. This paper presents the R package sectorgap, which features a flexible modeling and estimation framework for a multivariate Bayesian state space model identifying...

Estimating regional integration faces challenges because of incomplete data from missing values and insufficient time spans. A key advantage of a dynamic factor model estimated using the Bayesian state-space approach is its ability to handle missing values and aggregation of the regional...

This study analyses the inherent evolution dynamics of economic activity and global oil prices in China using the tools of wavelet and wavelet-based VAR-GARCH-BEKK model. Besides, the Wavelet-Granger causality test of Olayeni (2016) provides us further insights into the magnitude and direction...

The primary objectives of this research are to compare the economic performance of the Member States (MS) in the Euro Area 12 (EA-12) of the European Union (EU) that served as net contributors and net recipients of its budget during the period 1998-2022. The comparison focuses on aspects related...

Time-varying regression models with trends are commonly used to analyze long-term tendencies and evolving relationships in data. However, statistical inference for parameter paths is challenging, and recent literature has proposed various bootstrap methods to address this issue. Despite this, no...

This paper extends the multivariate filter approach for estimating potential output and NAIRU developed for Türkiye by integrating the capacity utilization block into the model. The model gives more negative estimates of the output gap and smaller estimates of NAIRU in recession periods...