Advice plays a central role in health, personal finance, and energy-efficiency decisions. We study how a benevolent expert should design verifiable advice - such as whether to commission a diagnostic test of different accuracy - when the agent is behaviorally biased, either neglecting...

Business models often transform due to adaptation in response to external changes. However, relatively little is known about what causes these types of adaptations. We suggest that threat-rigidity as well as prospect theory have the potential to explain what causes business model adaptation in...

This paper aims to develop optional semimartingale methods in risk theory to allow for a larger class of risk models. Optional semimartingales are left-continuous with right-limit stochastic processes defined on a probability space where the usual conditions - completeness and right-continuity...

By examining the significant flaws in multivariate risk analysis and integrated risk analysis, this article introduces a new approach to evaluating the total risk within complex risk systems: the principle of multi-dimensional risk (MDR) analysis. Under this framework, the scope of each...

Luckman et al. (2018) experimentally tested the conjecture that a single model of risky intertemporal choice can account for both risky and intertemporal choices, and under the conditions of their experiment, found evidence supporting it. Given the existing literature, that is a remarkable...

The gambler's ruin is usually presented as a repeated game where the gambler can either win or lose one unit. We examine cases where the profits from winning gambles are multiple times the stake at risk, with the expected profit per gamble being either zero, positive or negative. For positive...

Promoting household-level adaptation measures is an important part of climate change adaptation policies to reduce vulnerability to droughts for (agro-)pastoral communities in sub-Saharan Africa. To develop effective supportive policies, it is important to get a better understanding of the needs...

Effective risk response decision-making in complex contexts often necessitates addressing multiple interacting risk events under resource constraints. However, existing models have predominantly focused on single-type or pairwise interactions and incorporated only a limited range of influencing...

This study outlines the decision-making process under risk considering the psychological aspects of the decision-maker. The aim is to construct a principle of an optimal decision for an individual decision-maker. The study considers a finite, d iscrete s et o f a cceptable decisions, a set of...

We present a meta-analysis of prospect theory (PT ) parameters, summarizing data from 166 papers reporting 812 estimates. These parameters capture risk-taking propensities, thus holding interest beyond PT. We develop an inverse-variance weighted method that accounts for correlations in PT...

We elicit subjects' beliefs over opponents' behavior multiple times for a given game without feedback. A large majority of subjects have stochasticity in their belief reports, which we argue cannot be explained by learning or measurement error, suggesting significant noise in subjects'...