As a cornerstone of the modern financial safety net, the Lender of Last Resort (LOLR) is essential in mitigating liquidity crises and containing financial contagion. However, during periods of economic stability, risk-taking incentives in the banking sector may undermine its effectiveness. Using...

This WBG study examines what makes distressed asset markets work — and how governments can create the right conditions for private sector engagement. It provides policymakers, regulators, and financial institutions with a practical framework to assess market readiness, identify policy and...

We develop a novel sentiment measure derived from survey data to empirically vali date the Minsky-Kindleberger view on financial crises. Using survey data from multiple countries, we decompose beliefs into components explained by public information that are orthogonal to optimal machine beliefs,...

This paper revisits the "too much finance" hypothesis by reassessing the relationship between financial depth and economic growth using an expanded dataset (1960-2019) and a systematic estimation strategy that avoids reliance on any single, potentially arbitrary sample window. We estimate both...

Financial Conditions Indices (FCIs) are a widely used tool for assessing the broader monetary policy stance beyond the central bank's direct control. This paper presents a novel vector autoregressive (VAR) model that includes key macroeconomic variables and maps financial variables into a single...

Financial markets and foreign investments could play an effective role in determining the environment and income of GCC resource-rich economies. Therefore, the effects of Financial Market Development (FMD) and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) on Carbon Intensity (CI) from oil, gas, gas flaring,...

Workforce adjustments, such as mass layoffs, are significant corporate events that can influence stock returns and volatility, yet their broader asset-pricing implications remain underexplored. We examine the impact of such workforce shocks on stock performance from an asset-pricing perspective....

This research explores the application of extreme value theory in modelling and quantifying tail risks across different economic equity markets, with focus on the Nairobi Securities Exchange (NSE20), the South African Equity Market (FTSE/JSE Top40) and the US Equity Index (S&P500). The study...

This paper examines the relevance of banks' exposure to climate transition risk in the interbank lending market. Using transaction-level data on repo agreements, we first establish that banks with higher exposure to transition risk face significantly higher borrowing costs. This premium is a...

Purpose - This study aims to forecast the stock market behavior of BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) using advanced machine learning models. The focus is on identifying market trends, predicting future index prices and analyzing returns. Design/methodology/approach -...

The Financial Lobster Bias describes how SMEs, driven by distorted liquidity perceptions, engage in aggressive expansion until financial breakdown occurs. Using data from 10,412 Spanish SMEs (2000-2024), this study shows that liquidity misperception-measured through two versions of the Liquidity...

Cross-country evidence finds that there are low levels of financial literacy. Financial literacy is often measured using the "Big Three" questions about interest rates, inflation, and risk. These questions are usually part of a longer survey. Respondents in long surveys may suffer survey fatigue...

This paper investigates tail-risk transmission and asymmetric dependence in commodity markets using an asymmetric fuzzy vine copula framework applied to gold, crude oil, natural gas, and silver from 1 January 2015 to 1 January 2025, extracted from Yahoo Finance. Bootstrap-based trapezoidal fuzzy...

Using a novel arbitrage-free dynamic term structure model of nominal and real bond prices that accounts for bond-specific liquidity risk premia, this paper provides estimates of bond investors' inflation expectations and associated inflation risk premia in South African sovereign bonds. The...

Palau’s financial system faces structural challenges that inhibit effective financial intermediation, mobilization of domestic savings, and payment system efficiency. The authorities have been striving to address these challenges through digital initiatives. While these initiatives are...

Economic benefits of financial inclusion, meaning a broadening access of the population to financial services, have been studied extensively, but less is known about its potential effects on financial stability. We explore the complementarity between credit booms and episodes of rapid expansion...

Fiat-backed stablecoins are expanding, and their issuers may attain systemic relevance as reserve portfolios grow and as they become increasingly intertwined with financial markets. This paper analyzes the resulting risks and the design choices that can mitigate them. A detailed...

This paper investigates the external drivers of Cambodia’s credit cycles using a dynamic factor model. Results indicate that common global and regional factors explain over 60 percent of credit growth variance, reflecting one of Asia’s highest sensitivities to external conditions. The...

Cryptocurrencies play a central role in modern financial markets; however, geopolitical tensions and environmental concerns raise critical questions about their stability and informational efficiency. This study distinguishes between green cryptocurrencies (GCs), based on low-energy validation...

This paper evaluates an Adaptive LASSO-MGARCH model for multivariate volatility forecasting, with an application to green and conventional bonds, equities, energy commodities, and EU carbon allowances. By introducing coefficient-specific adaptive penalisation directly into the multivariate GARCH...

This paper develops a tractable consumption-based asset-pricing model in an i.i.d. economy that combines rare consumption disasters with ambiguity aversion implemented as a one-period entropic tilt under CRRA utility. Closed-form expressions for the risk-free rate, equity return moments, and the...

This SAFE White Paper presents a structured economic framework for assessing asset-backed stablecoins in their capacity as privately issued, fiscally anchored monetary instruments. Specifically, we evaluate the implications of stablecoins for financial intermediation, sovereign debt markets, and...

Despite rising stock markets in the United States and Europe from 2017 to 2024, we document that average daily stock market performance becomes negative when weighted by the amount of media coverage. We propose an explanation for this media negativity bias that does not rely on a bad-news bias...

Firms differ in the extent to which they get access to formal and informal credit sources in developing economies. In developing economies, banks ration credit due to higher perceived borrower risk, information asymmetry, lack of collateral, and market inefficiencies. Due to financial...

This study examines the relationship between green finance and environmental sustainability in Nepal from 1990 to 2023. Constructing the index for financial development by using Principal Component Analysis (PCA), the relationship is explored using Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) followed...

This study applies the Log-Periodic Power-Law (LPPL) framework to three major equity markets-Mexico (IPC), Brazil (IBOVESPA), and the United States (NYSE Composite)-using daily closes from 8 November 1991-30 January 2025 for IPC and NYSE, and 3 May 1993-30 January 2025 for IBOVESPA. Multi-window...

This paper examines whether the SEC's mandate for central clearing of U.S. Treasury repo transactions could enable all-to-all trading and support the development of a standardized term repo market. By mitigating counterparty risk through central clearing, cash lenders may become more willing to...

Financial risk early warning systems are essential for proactive risk management in volatile markets, particularly for emerging economies such as China. This study develops a hybrid deep learning model integrating Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs), Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), and Gated...

This paper studies the effects of stablecoin adoption-crypto-assets designed to maintain a stable value relative to a reference asset-on bank intermediation and the transmission of monetary policy. Using evidence from the rapid expansion of stablecoins combined with confidential granular data on...

This paper analyses the role of Sukuk issuance in driving economic growth amid the Global Financial Crisis (2007-2009), considering both short-term fluctuations and long-term outcomes during periods of financial distress.Using the Pooled Mean Group (PMG) approach of the ARDL model, the study...