The Quantity Theory of Money claims to provide one of the few long-run guides to economic policy by providing specific numbers to characterise the correlation between money growth and inflation. Acceptance of the Quantity Theory has been greatly helped by the claim, propounded most effectively...

We investigate the determinants of the performance of emerging markets (EMs) during five United States (US) Federal Reserve monetary tightening and easing cycles from 2004 to 2023. We study how macroeconomic and institutional conditions of an EM at the beginning of a cycle explain EM resilience...

This paper studies the spillover effects of US quantitative easing on emerging market economies. I estimate the spillover effects using Bayesian VAR models for the US economy and a set of emerging market economies. A 1% increase in the Federal Reserves securities held outright has positive and...

This paper introduces a novel monetary policy framework where the exchange rate becomes the central instrument. Using Singapore as a case study, it explores the Monetary Authority's adoption of the exchange rate as the primary tool since 1981, diverging from conventional approaches centered on...

The Monetary Authority of Singapore, instead of relying on short-term interest rates or monetary aggregates as its monetary policy instrument, conducts policy by managing the exchange rate. This paper investigates how this operating procedure works. For empirical purposes, it assumes the...

This study re-investigates the money supply determination process for Japan. The methodology of this study, which differs from previous studies, is constructed on the assumption of potential nonlinear (asymmetric) relations between money supply and monetary base via money multiplier. To this...

This paper studies the implications of central bank credibility for long-run inflation and inflation dynamics. We introduce central bank lack of commitment into a standard non-linear New Keynesian economy with sticky-price monopolistically competitive firms. Inflation is driven by the...

We study the recent Australian experience with yield curve control (YCC) of government bonds as perhaps the best evidence of how this policy might work in other developed economies. We interpret the evidence with a simple model in which YCC affects prices of both government and other bonds via...

As part of its monetary policy strategy, the European Central Bank has formulated a reference value for M3 growth. A pre-requisite for the use of a reference value for M3 growth is the existence of a stable demand function for that aggregate. However, a large empirical literature has emerged...

Central banks define a monetary policy strategy in which they set out the instruments they use to achieve their monetary policy objectives as well as the incoming data they take into account when using these instruments. Independent central banks in particular are expected to provide a detailed...

Zentralbanken definieren eine geldpolitische Strategie, in der sie darlegen, welche Instrumente sie nutzen, um ihr geldpolitisches Ziel zu erreichen, und welche einkommenden Daten sie aus welchen Gründen bei der Nutzung der Instrumente berücksichtigen. Insbesondere von unabhängigen...

This paper defines an efficient rule for monetary policy as one that minimizes a weighted sum of output variance and inflation variance. It derives several results about the efficiency of alternative rules in a simple macroeconomic model. First, efficient rules can be expressed as 'Taylor rules'...

This paper presents new empirical evidence to support the hypothesis that positive money supply shocks drive short-term interest rates down. We then present a quantitative, general equilibrium model which is consistent with the hypothesis. The two key features of our model are that (i) money...

In 1936-37, the Federal Reserve doubled member banks' reserve requirements. Friedman and Schwartz (1963) famously argued that the doubling increased reserve demand and forced the money supply to contract, which they argued caused the recession of 1937-38. Using a new database on individual...

We study the recent Australian experience with yield curve control (YCC) of government bonds as perhaps the best evidence of how this policy might work in other developed economies. We interpret the evidence with a simple model in which YCC affects prices of both government and other bonds via...

This paper conducts a theoretical comparison of the potential effectiveness, in terms of money stock controllability, of interest rate and reserve instruments. Whereas previous studies have been basically static, the present analysis is carried out in the context of a dynamic macroeconomic model...

We explore a hypothesis about the take-off in inflation that occurred in the early 1970s. According to the expectations trap hypothesis, the Fed was pushed into producing the high inflation out of a fear of violating the public's inflation expectations. We compare this hypothesis with the...

A number of studies find significant temporal variation in the interest-rate response to money announcement surprises. An unresolved question, however, is whether the response changes immediately as different policy regimes are adopted, or whether the change is gradual reflecting the...

This paper introduces an empirical measure of the cost of allocating money market volatility between the money stock and the Federal funds rate, the principal purpose being to devise a framework for data-based measures of the short-run implied by alternative operating procedures

This paper, written for a Federal Reserve Staff Review of Monetary Control Procedures, explores the short-run volatility consequences of money stock targeting procedures under current (1981) alternative operating procedures. Conclusions include: the odds are at least two to one that a portion of...

This paper examines the properties of interest rate rules aimed at controlling aggregate price inflation. Policies are compared in two models having either flexible or sticky inflation The latter is assumed to derive from a traditional, adaptive-expectations augmented Phillips curve. The...

An important question for the major central banks of the industrialized world is how to design desirable strategies to exit quantitative easing (QE). At the exit, if a central bank needs to reduce rapidly the liquidity created by its balance sheet expansion, issuing new interest-bearing...

We study the recent Australian experience with yield curve control (YCC) of government bonds as perhaps the best evidence of how this policy might work in other developed economies. We interpret the evidence with a simple model in which YCC affects prices of both government and other bonds via...

We study the recent Australian experience with yield curve control (YCC) of government bonds as perhaps the best evidence of how this policy might work in other developed economies. We interpret the evidence with a simple model in which YCC affects prices of both government and other bonds via...

This study analyzes the state-dependent effect of the Bank of Japan (BoJ)’s intervention in stock markets from 2013 to 2017. A causal inference on such intervention is difficult because of the self-selective behavior of central banks. To address this problem, I apply the propensity score...

We investigate the determinants of emerging markets performance during five U.S. Federal Reserve monetary tightening and easing cycles during 2004-2023. We study how macroeconomic and institutional conditions of an Emerging Market (EM) at the beginning of a cycle explain EM resilience during...

This paper uses the recent cross-country experience with quantitative tightening (QT) to assess the impact of shrinking central bank balance sheets. We analyze the experience in seven advanced economies (Australia, Canada, Euro area, New Zealand, Sweden, UK and US)--documenting different...