This Policy Brief examines economic experts' expectations about the macroeconomic effects of import tariffs and trade policy uncertainty, based on the 2025Q2 and 2025Q3 waves of the Economic Expert Survey (EES). The survey collected responses from over 600 economists across EU member states and...

This paper introduces a new measure of tariff evasion through rerouting and applies it to the 2018 U.S.–China trade war, focusing on Vietnam as a transit country. We use transaction-level trade data and define rerouting as the flow of a granular eight-digit HS product from China, through...

This brief presents impact assessments of increased tariffs based on simulations using the Global Integrated Monetary and Fiscal (GIMF) macroeconomic model. The current increases in US import tariffs are shown to reduce aggregate output across all major economic regions. The most pronounced...

This Policy Brief examines economic expertsʼ expectations about the macroeconomic effects of import tariffs and trade policy uncertainty, based on the 2025Q2 and 2025Q3 waves of the Economic Expert Survey (EES). The survey collected responses from over 600 economists across EU member states and...

In 2018 and 2019, the US administration increased tariffs on imports from China. Did these tariffs lead to more US imports from other countries such as Mexico? Using highly disaggregated data on the universe of Mexican firm-level exports, we find evidence of trade diversion from China to Mexico....

The objective of the research is the evaluation of the competitiveness of Serbia's exports in the agro-food trade with China, with the aim of deciding on the appropriate export strategy within the 2024 Serbia-China Free Trade Agreement (FTA). Export competitiveness diagnostics comprises...

This paper empirically examines the impact of trade facilitation on the trade of intermediate goods in Korea, China, and Japan, along with their trading partner countries, during the period from 2008 to 2017. We particularly focus on the distinct roles of hard and soft environments in trade...

In this paper, we analyze the regional trade introversion indexes (RTIIs) for regional trading arrangements (RTAs)with various numbers of differently developed participants and different depths of economic integration. The analyszed RTAs stem from all inhabited continents. We compare three types...

Geopolitical fragmentation triggers complex dynamics in international trade. This paper examines the effects of sanctions through the lens of a stylized model and the empirical analysis of Türkiye’s exports to Russia in the aftermath of Western measures imposed on Russia following its...

By utilizing panel statistics of 1520 country pairs and economic integration agreements (EIAs) from 2007 to 2017, this paper presents evidence of the effect of EIAs on export margins, i.e., both extensive (firms) and intensive margins (average exports per firm). In doing so, this work adds...

This paper studies the role of dataset choices for trade policy estimates in structural gravity models. Using twelve publicly available data sources and applying alternative and commonly used dataset restrictions, we obtain 586 estimates for the EU membership trade effects from a standard...

This paper examines how EU Technical Barriers to Trade (TBTs) reshape firms’ global supply chains, extending Grossman et al. (2024) to incorporate adaptation costs between sourcing partners. To test the model’s predictions, we construct a novel dataset linking EU TBTs to French firm-level...

We examine the indirect effects of the US-China trade war on Brazil’s labor market. Using industry-specific tariff changes and the sectoral employment distribution across local labor markets, we construct a measure of regional exposure to the trade conflict. Following higher exports to China,...

This paper studies the role of dataset choices for trade policy estimates in structural gravity models. Using twelve publicly available data sources and applying alternative and commonly used dataset restrictions, we obtain 586 estimates for the EU membership trade effects from a standard...

We investigate the systematic complementarities between import and export activities of firms using a novel firm-level data set for Germany. Specifically, we examine whether firms that import more are also inclined to export more, decomposing this relationship into extensive country and product...

This study investigates how Chinese ownership in European ports affects trade flows between China and Eurozone countries, set against the backdrop of recent global economic disruptions that have emphasized the crucial role of maritime trade and port efficiency. An augmented gravity model was...

This paper analyzes how the U.S.-China trade war affected Korean industries and identifies the industry characteristics that determined which industries gained or lost. I show that heterogeneity in responses is closely linked to capital intensity and export intensity, highlighting the role of...

Russia's foreign trade has shifted, causing a 30% depreciation in the Rouble due to declining oil prices and EU embargoes on Russian oil. While exports have decreased by 32%, imports have increased by 17% due to innovative ways to bypass trade sanctions. Despite EU restrictions, only around...

This study assesses the impact of economic integration on regional trade in African countries from 1980 to 2023. Employing a panel Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) technique, we analyzed trade patterns and integration policies using data from World Development Indicator (WDI), the findings...

Revamping African and the United States Economic Ties: A Quest for More Trade and Investment Policarpo Gomes Caomique, Fatimata Belem, Sampawende Jules Tapsoba The ongoing global trend is marked by increasing geopolitical fragmentation, leading to policy differences, longer supply chains, and...

This paper explores the effects of industrial policy on trade, focusing on the role of preferential trade agreements. The analysis uses data for the period 2012-2022 on detailed product-level bilateral trade, industrial policy announcements, and rules on subsidies in different preferential trade...

In November 2015, Turkey’s unexpected downing of a Russian military jet in Syria prompted Russia to impose a swift and comprehensive embargo on specific Turkish exports. This study leverages this quasi-natural experiment to estimate both the immediate and longer-term effects of the imposition...

This paper quantifies the impact of the 1630-1631 Italian plague on the business activities of the Florentine merchant-bank Saminiati & Guasconi. Employing AI for handwriting recognition on over 6,000 bank letters we show that letters and goods transactions decreased by two-thirds when a...

The ubiquity of environmental provisions in trade agreements is well documented, but their economic effects are largely inconclusive. This article analyzes whether environmental provisions in preferential trade agreements (PTAs) have differential effects on sectoral trade. It further examines...