Evidence since the XIX century shows that whereas the demand for M1 is uniformly stable (Benati, Lucas, Nicolini, and Weber, 2021), the demand for broader aggregates is stable under monetary regimes making inflation strongly mean-reverting-such as the Gold Standard and inflation-targeting-but it...

The predictability of monetary policy surprises based on past, public information has been interpreted in two related yet fundamentally different ways. The "Fed information effect" posits that it arises due to markets updating their view of the economy, based on signals implicitly revealed by...

The international co-movement of interest rates reflects correlated business-cycle fluctuations, largely driven by demand shocks. Monetary policy in advanced economies follows domestic mandates - inflation and the output gap - and does not respond to foreign policy shocks. We derive this result...

How borrowers respond to future changes in the interest rate on their debt matters for the transmission of monetary policy and for household financial stability. Combining bank data, a letter RCT, and a survey, we study this question in the context of the German mortgage market, where since 2022...

This paper estimates Morocco's natural interest rate (NIR) using two approaches: a standard HLW-type framework and an augmented specification that incorporates external factors, namely imported inflation, and movements in the real effective exchange rate. The results point to a downward trend in...

We study firms' financial and real decisions after an exogenous change in their interest rate beliefs induced by a survey experiment with an information treatment. Firms revise their expectations downward after learning about the European Central Bank's policy rate. Moreover, we find a reduction...

How borrowers respond to future changes in the interest rate on their debt matters for the transmission of monetary policy and for household financial stability. Combining bank data, a letter RCT, and a survey, we study this question in the context of the German mortgage market, where since 2022...

The European Union's regional integration serves as a model for blocs such as the D-8 Organisation for Economic Cooperation, which aims to enhance financial and economic integration. This study employs wavelet coherence analysis to examine the interrelations between exchange rates, bond yields,...

The present paper utilizes AnaCredit loan-level data to examine the impact of regional loan market structure on lending rates. The analysis focuses on newly issued loans to small non-financial corporations in the euro area during the monetary policy tightening phase of 2022 and 2023. The...

This study investigates the dynamic relationship between interest and noninterest income at Azer Turk Bank using quarterly data from 2016Q1-2024Q3. Unit root tests including Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF), Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shin (KPSS), and Fourier-KPSS indicate that both variables are...

This article shows that there is a methodological problem in the traditional IS-LM model. If production cannot be sufficiently adjusted downwards, there is no uniform interest rate that simultaneously clears the money and goods markets. An extension of the credit market in the tradition of the...

Monetary policy impacts consumer spending via the effect of interest rate changes on credit card borrowing. Using supervisory account-level spending and balance data, we estimate that a 1 percentage point increase in the interest rate reduces credit card spending by nearly 9 percent and...

This paper examines the role of long-run and cyclical components of interest rate differentials in explaining the returns to currency carry strategies. We show that long-run differentials account for most of the profitability, while cyclical differentials play only a limited role. A simple...

This paper studies how unemployment benefits affect aggregate outcomes through general equilibrium effects. First, we document that lower unemployment benefits tend to reduce the real interest rate in a structural vector autoregression with narrative sign restrictions. Young workers experience...

The sensitivity of firms' investment to interest rates is central to the transmission of monetary policy, yet direct firm-level evidence is scarce. We provide such evidence using the ifo Business Survey of German firms, combining hypothetical vignettes, open-ended questions, and rich firm-level...

We build a dataset of output and price effects of conventional monetary policy containing 146,463 point estimates and confidence bands from 4,871 impulse-response functions in 409 primary studies. Simple average responses suggest that interest rate hikes substantially dampen output and prices....

Using a granular database of variable rate euro area loans and analysing their defaults between 2014 and 2019, we show that the effect of interest rate changes on mortgage defaults is highly non-linear. First, we find that the risk associated with higher contemporaneous interest rates is...

This study examines the dynamic and nonlinear effects of global interest rate (based on the G7 market) shocks on equity markets in BRICS countries. A World Interest Rate (WIR) index is constructed using principal component analysis of short-term interest rates from developed economies. The...

This paper attempts to resolve several intriguing observations. First, there is an unusually high correlation between the inflation-protected and nominal interest rates when the changes in the nominal interest rates are predominantly driven by inflationary pressure. This observation appears to...