Das ZEW Mannheim hat in Kooperation mit der Süddeutschen Zeitung die finanziellen Auswirkungen von Reformvorschlägen der Parteien zur Bundestagswahl 2025 untersucht. Diese betreffen die Einkommensteuer und den Solidaritätszuschlag, die Vermögensteuer, das Bürgergeld, den Mindestlohn und...

[Einleitung:] Das ZEW Mannheim hat in Kooperation mit der Süddeutschen Zeitung die finanziellen Auswirkungen von Reformvorschlägen der Parteien zur Bundestagswahl 2025 untersucht. Diese betreffen die Einkommensteuer und den Solidaritätszuschlag, die Vermögensteuer, das Bürgergeld, den...

Die Alterung der deutschen Bevölkerung führt in der umlagefinanzierten Gesetzlichen Rentenversicherung zu höheren Beiträgen bei sinkendem Sicherungsniveau. Dies ließe sich bremsen, wenn mit steigender Regelaltersgrenze der Renteneintritt später erfolgte. Jedoch bevorzugt die Bevölkerung...

As fringe parties increasingly capture a larger portion of the votes, the issue of how centrist parties can set themselves apart from these extremes while establishing distinct characteristics has become more prominent in public and political debates. Despite analyses of programmatic overlaps...

Lee (2022) evaluates whether elected officials update their policy positions based on expert evidence. His cross-subject and within-subject designs run in the American local and state policy-making context both confirm the capacity for politicians to update their beliefs in response to expert...

Moya Chin's (2023) paper argues that politicians in two-round majoritarian systems have to appeal more broadly than those in single-round elections. The author uses data for mayoral elections in Brazil. The key findings of the paper conclude that of two-round systems (1) fostering inclusiveness,...

Die Alterung der deutschen Bevölkerung führt in der umlagefinanzierten Gesetzlichen Rentenversicherung zu höheren Beiträgen bei sinkendem Sicherungsniveau. Dies ließe sich bremsen, wenn mit steigender Regelaltersgrenze der Renteneintritt später erfolgte. Jedoch bevorzugt die Bevölkerung...

Intra-party contests, such as the US primaries, are often used to select a candidate for a subsequent cross-party election. A more accurate selection may improve the quality of the candidate but detract more resources from the subsequent campaign. We model this trade-off as a problem of contest...

Intra-party contests, such as the US primaries, are often used to select a candidate for a subsequent cross-party election. A more accurate selection may improve the quality of the candidate but detract more resources from the subsequent campaign. We model this trade-off as a problem of contest...

U.S. congressional roll-call voting records show that as polarization of the two parties along the economic dimension changes, polarization along the social/cultural dimension tends to change in the opposite direction. A model of party competition within a two-dimensional ideology space is...

We develop a model of elections in which parties choose their ideological position and the ideology of their candidates. Tighter candidate selection reduces policy uncertainty for voters. We show that weak institutional constraints, as in a Presidential regime, induce parties to allow their...

Die NSDAP kopierte nicht nur von Anfang an den Stil der Arbeiterbewegung, sondernverlagerte auch den Schwerpunkt ihrer Propaganda ab 1928 von nationalistischer Außenpolitikauf innenpolitische und soziale Fragen. Bis 1932 wurde diese Ausrichtung jedoch durchkein wirtschaftspolitisches Programm...

Wirtschaftspolitik in einer sozialen Marktwirtschaft möchte Wohlstand schaffen und verteilen. Dies zeigt sich in den Wahl- und Regierungsprogrammen auf Bundesebene seit 2002, allerdings mit sehr unterschiedlichen Akzenten. Zur Analyse wird deshalb die relative Häufigkeit der Begriffe...

Individual members of Congress can have different policy preferences from the party leadership or special interest groups (SIGs), and the latter two may pressure members to shift their positions. To study this tension, we develop and estimate a multi-stage election model that incorporates party...

In most national elections, voters face a key choice between continuity and change. Electoral turnovers occur when the incumbent candidate or party fails to win reelection. To understand how turnovers affect national outcomes, we study the universe of presidential and parliamentary elections...

The role of citizens' initiatives figures prominently in contemporary debates on constitutional change. A basic question is why are initiatives necessary in a representative democracy where candidates must already compete for the right to control policy? This paper offers one answer to this...

We develop a model of elections in which parties choose their ideological position and the ideology of their candidates. Tighter candidate selection reduces policy uncertainty for voters. We show that weak institutional con- straints, as in a Presidential regime, induce parties to allow their...

How important are political parties in motivating and disciplining elected officials? Using a difference-in-discontinuity design, we study how shocks to incumbents're-election probabilities affect legislative behavior in a setting where parties fully control candidate selection. We find that...

Democratic representation is constrained by the alternatives available to voters. In this paper, we develop a methodology to gauge the extent to which the "supply side" of politics hinders voter welfare. Using rich data on thousands of candidates in three Brazilian legislative elections, we...

Luisa Dörr prepared this study while she was working at the ifo Center for Public Finance and Political Economy. The study was completed in February 2022 and accepted as doctoral thesis by the Department of Economics at the University of Munich. It consists of three distinct empirical essays...

Wirtschaftspolitik in einer sozialen Marktwirtschaft möchte Wohlstand schaffen und verteilen. Dies zeigt sich in den Wahl- und Regierungsprogrammen auf Bundesebene seit 2002, allerdings mit sehr unterschiedlichen Akzenten. Zur Analyse wird deshalb die relative Häufigkeit der Begriffe...

We review an empirical literature that studies how political polarization affects financial decisions. We first discuss the degree of partisan segregation in finance and corporate America, the mechanisms through which partisanship may influence financial decisions, and available data sources to...

The Federal Reserve Act was the outcome of compromises among competing economic and political interests. Numerous studies examine how the act came together but largely take the makeup of Congress and the Administration as given rather than considering the unique circumstances that led to that...

Die Partei Bündnis 90/Die Grünen hat eine umfangreiche Agenda arbeitsmarkt- und sozialpolitischer Forderungen erarbeitet. Diese reichen von Maßnahmen mit geringer Reichweite wie dem weitgehenden Verbot der Arbeit auf Abruf bis hin zu Maßnahmen, die einem kompletten Systemwechsel gleichkommen...

Am 30. Juni 2017 fand im Deutschen Bundestag eine namentliche Abstimmung zur Einführung der gleichgeschlechtlichen Ehe (»Ehe für alle«) statt. In einer neuen Studie untersuchen wir, ob die Wähler diejenigen CDU/CSU-Politiker belohnt haben, die für die Ehe für alle gestimmt haben (Kauder...

Der Mittelstand bildet mit nahezu 3,5 Millionen Unternehmen die Basis der deutschen Wirt-schaftsstärke. Unternehmensgründungen sind für die ständige Erneuerung der mittelständi-schen Unternehmenslandschaft unerlässlich; innovative Start-ups bringen wichtige Innovatio-nen auf den Markt, die...

Die Künstliche Intelligenz (KI) wird in Deutschland als entscheidende Schlüsseltechnologie gesehen (BMWi, 2019). Bereits 2018 erklärte Bundeskanzlerin Merkel in ihrem Video-Podcast, dass Deutschland bei KI führend sein muss, 'wenn wir Wachstum und damit auch neue Arbeitsplätze und Wohlstand...

Do politicians tend to follow a strategy of ambiguity in their policy positions or a strategy of reputational development to reduce uncertainty about where they stand? Ambiguity could allow a legislator to avoid alienating constituents and to play rival interests off against each other to...

This paper tests for the capitalization of policy platforms into equity prices using a sample of 70 firms favored under Bush or Gore platforms during the 2000 U.S. Presidential Election. Two sources of daily data during the six months leading up to the election are incorporated: firm-specific...

Diese Kurzexpertise umfasst die Ergebnisse einer Studie für die Süddeutsche Zeitung zu den Auswirkungen zentraler Reformvorschläge der Parteien zur Bundestagswahl 2021 zu Steuern-, Mindestlohn, Mini- und Midi-Jobs, Sozialversicherung und Familienpolitik, auf private Haushalte . Die...

Polities differ in the extent to which political parties can pre-commit to carry out promised policy actions if they take power. Commitment problems may arise due to a divergence between the ex ante incentives facing national parties that seek to capture control of the legislature and the ex...

This piece builds on my work from 2019, when I explored how different aspects of American political life in the Trump era were being rebranded in the book Political Brands. Branding in politics is very similar to commercial branding: repeat a message ad infinitum until the intended audience...