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Year of publication
Subject
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Prognosemarkt 350 Prediction market 344 Theorie 169 Theory 169 Prognoseverfahren 127 Forecasting model 126 Experiment 105 Börsenkurs 101 Share price 101 Financial market 81 Finanzmarkt 81 Anlageverhalten 74 Behavioural finance 73 Wertpapierhandel 59 Securities trading 58 Bubbles 56 Spekulationsblase 56 Agent-based modeling 53 Agentenbasierte Modellierung 53 Efficient market hypothesis 47 Effizienzmarkthypothese 47 Marktmechanismus 38 Market mechanism 37 Economic forecast 34 Wirtschaftsprognose 34 Deutschland 28 Germany 28 USA 28 United States 27 Aktienmarkt 26 Election 26 Wahl 26 Voting behaviour 24 Wahlverhalten 24 Informationsverhalten 22 Stock market 22 Market microstructure 21 Marktmikrostruktur 21 Financial crisis 20 Finanzkrise 20
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Online availability
All
Free 127 Undetermined 71 CC license 4
Type of publication
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Book / Working Paper 179 Article 168 Journal 3
Subcategories
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Article in journal 105 Working paper 84 Book section 55 Literature review 4 Proceedings 2 Case study 1 Review 1
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Language
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English 327 German 23 French 1
Author
All
Wolfers, Justin 44 Zitzewitz, Eric 35 Snowberg, Erik 24 Palan, Stefan 10 Cheung, Stephen L. 9 Leigh, Andrew 9 Huber, Jürgen 7 Spann, Martin 7 Kirchler, Michael 6 Lugovskyy, Volodymyr 6 Puzzello, Daniela 6 Schmidt, Carsten 6 Tucker, Steven 6 Weber, Matthias 6 Duffy, John 5 Ehrentreich, Norman 5 Noussair, Charles 5 Porter, David 5 Skiera, Bernd 5 Al-Ubaydli, Omar 4 Alfarano, Simone 4 Baghestanian, Sascha 4 Corgnet, Brice 4 Füllbrunn, Sascha 4 Hein, Oliver 4 List, John A. 4 Powell, Owen 4 Raberto, Marco 4 Schram, Arthur 4 Schröder, Jan 4 Siemroth, Christoph 4 Teschner, Florian 4 Andraszewicz, Sandra 3 Bisière, Christophe 3 Bolle, Friedel 3 Brandouy, Olivier 3 Choo, Lawrence 3 Cincotti, Silvano 3 Deck, Cary A. 3 Ding, Shuze 3
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Institution
All
National Bureau of Economic Research 7 Uniwersytet Warszawski / Wydział Nauk Ekonomicznych 2 AE <2005, Lille> 1 Friedrich-Schiller-Universität Jena 1 Harvard Graduate School of Business Administration 1 Max-Planck-Institut zur Erforschung von Wirtschaftssystemen / Abteilung Strategische Interaktion 1 Sonderforschungsbereich Quantifikation und Simulation Ökonomischer Prozesse 1 Springer Fachmedien Wiesbaden 1
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Published in...
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The journal of prediction markets 20 Journal of economic behavior & organization : JEBO 11 SpringerLink / Bücher 9 Discussion paper series 7 NBER Working Paper 7 NBER working paper series 7 Artificial economics : agent-based methods in finance, game theory and their applications 6 Working paper / National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. 6 IZA Discussion Paper 5 Lecture notes in economics and mathematical systems : LNEMS 5 Discussion paper / Centre for Economic Policy Research 4 ESI working papers 4 European economic review : EER 4 Management science : journal of the Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences 4 Advances in artificial economics : the economy as a complex dynamic system; with 30 tables 3 Applied economics letters 3 Artificial economics : the generative method in economics ; [Artificial Economics Conference 2009] 3 Bank- und Finanzwirtschaftliche Forschung: Diskussionsbeiträge des Lehrstuhls für Betriebswirtschaftslehre, insbesondere Finanzwirtschaft, Universität Bamberg 3 Experimental economics : a journal of the Economic Science Association 3 Jena economics research papers 3 Journal of economic interaction and coordination : JEIC 3 Papers on strategic interaction 3 SAFE working paper 3 Surveys in experimental economics : bargaining, cooperation and election stock markets ; with 58 tables 3 Working papers 3 Working papers / Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research 3 BestMasters 2 CESifo working papers 2 Computational economics 2 Developments on experimental economics : new approaches to solving real-world problems 2 Digital Designs for Money, Markets, and Social Dilemmas 2 Discussion paper series / Centre for Economic Policy Research / Labour economics and public policy 2 Economics : the open-access, open-assessment e-journal 2 European journal of operational research : EJOR 2 Finanzintermediation : theoretische, wirtschaftspolitische und praktische Aspekte aktueller Entwicklungen im Bank- und Börsenwesen : Festschrift für Professor Dr. Wolfgang Gerke zum sechzigsten Geburtstag 2 Forschungspapiere 2 Gabler Edition Wissenschaft 2 Handbook of behavioural economics and smart decision-making : rational decision-making within the bounds of reason 2 International review of financial analysis 2 Journal of economic dynamics & control 2
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Source
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ECONIS (ZBW) 346 OLC EcoSci 4
Showing 1 - 50 of 277
 
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How manipulable are prediction markets?
Rasooly, Itzhak; Rozzi, Roberto - 2025
In this paper, we conduct a large-scale field experiment to investigate the manipulability of prediction markets. The main experiment involves randomly shocking prices across 817 separate markets; we then collect hourly price data to examine whether the effects of these shocks persist over time....
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Information aggregation with AI agents
Galanis, Spyros - 2025
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The role of the end time in experimental asset markets
Kopányi-Peuker, Anita; Weber, Matthias - 2024
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The role of the end time in experimental asset markets
Kopányi-Peuker, Anita; Weber, Matthias - 2021
Book / Working Paper
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Price formation in field prediction markets : the wisdom in the crowd
Bossaerts, Frederik; Yadav, Nitin; Bossaerts, Peter L.; … - 2024
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Price Formation in Field Prediction Markets : The Wisdom in the Crowd
Bossaerts, Frederik; Yadav, Nitin; Bossaerts, Peter L.; … - 2022
Book / Working Paper
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When do prediction markets return average beliefs? : experimental evidence
Mantovani, Marco; Filippin, Antonio - 2024
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Managing bubbles in experimental asset markets with monetary policy
Hennequin, Myrna; Hommes, Cars H. - 2024
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Learning from the past : the role of personal experiences in artificial stock markets
Lenhard, Gregor - 2024
Recent survey evidence suggests that investors form beliefs about future stock returns by predominantly extrapolating their own experience: They overweight returns they have personally experienced while underweighting returns from earlier years and consequently expect high (low) stock market...
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The impact of search frictions in experimental asset markets : over-the-counter versus double auction
Ding, Shuze; Lu, Dong; Puzzello, Daniela - 2025
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Trading institutions in experimental asset markets : theory and evidence
Guler, Bulent; Lugovskyy, Volodymyr; Puzzello, Daniela; … - 2025
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Trading institutions in experimental asset markets : theory and evidence
Guler, Bulent; Lugovskyy, Volodymyr; Puzzello, Daniela; … - 2021
Book / Working Paper
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A Logarithmic Market Scoring Rule Agent-based Model to Evaluate Prediction Markets
V. C. Carvalho, Athos; Silveira, Douglas; Ely, Regis Augusto - 2022
Prediction Markets (PMs) are markets in which agents trade event contingent assets. Enterprises use PMs to forecast revenues and project deadlines. This paper presents an Agent-based model, called Logarithmic Market Scoring Rule-Automated Market Maker (LMSR-ASM), to evaluate Prediction Markets....
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Informational price cascades and non-aggregation of asymmetric information in experimental asset markets
Shachat, Jason M.; Srinivasan, Anand - 2022
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Arbitrage Bots in Experimental Asset Markets
Angerer, Martin; Neugebauer, Tibor; Shachat, Jason M. - 2022
Trading algorithms are an integral component of modern asset markets. In two experimental markets for long-lived correlated assets we examine the impact of alternative types of arbitrage-seeking algorithms. These arbitrage robot traders vary in their latency and whether they make or take market...
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Let's chat ... when communication promotes efficiency in experimental asset markets
Corgnet, Brice; DeSantis, Mark; Porter, David - 2024
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Let's chat ... when communication promotes efficiency in experimental asset markets
Corgnet, Brice; DeSantis, Mark; Porter, David - 2020
Book / Working Paper
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Five Open Questions About Prediction Markets
Wolfers, Justin; Zitzewitz, Eric - 2021
Interest in prediction markets has increased in the last decade, driven in part by the hope that these markets will prove to be valuable tools in forecasting, decision-making and risk management - in both the public and private sectors. This paper outlines five open questions in the literature,...
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Five Open Questions About Prediction Markets
Wolfers, Justin - 2006
Book / Working Paper
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Five Open Questions About Prediction Markets
Wolfers, Justin - 2006
Book / Working Paper
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Sentiment Analysis of Artificial Stock Markets
Di Giuseppe, Michael - 2021
This study will examine a dataset that contains 352 observations with 36 distinct variables. The dataset reflects people's thoughts and sentiments regarding a realistic fiction stock market game. The reason for analyzing this data is to identify any trends or patterns that might explain why...
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Competing Approaches to Forecasting Elections : Economic Models, Opinion Polling and Prediction Markets
Leigh, Andrew; Wolfers, Justin - 2021
We review the efficacy of three approaches to forecasting elections: econometric models that project outcomes on the basis of the state of the economy; public opinion polls; and election betting (prediction markets). We assess the efficacy of each in light of the 2004 Australian election. This...
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Competing Approaches to Forecasting Elections : Economic Models, Opinion Polling and Prediction Markets
Leigh, Andrew - 2011
Book / Working Paper
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Competing Approaches to Forecasting Elections : Economic Models, Opinion Polling and Prediction Markets
Leigh, Andrew - 2006
Book / Working Paper
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Efficiency testing of prediction markets : martingale approach, likelihood ratio and Bayes factor analysis
Richard, Mark; Večeř, Jan - 2021
This paper studies efficient market hypothesis in prediction markets and the results are illustrated for the in-play football betting market using the quoted odds for the English Premier League. Our analysis is based on the martingale property, where the last quoted probability should be the...
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Manipulation and (mis)trust in prediction markets
Choo, Lawrence; Kaplan, Todd R.; Zultan, Ro'i - 2022
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Manipulation and (mis)trust in prediction markets
Choo, Lawrence; Kaplan, Todd R.; Zultan, Ro'i - 2020
Book / Working Paper
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Manipulation and (mis)trust in prediction markets
Choo, Lawrence; Kaplan, Todd R.; Zultan, Ro'i - 2019
Book / Working Paper
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Overpricing persistence in experimental asset markets with intrinsic uncertainty
Sornette, Didier; Andraszewicz, Sandra; Wu, Ke; Murphy, … - 2020
To study coordination in complex social systems such as financial markets, the authors introduce a new prediction market set-up that accounts for fundamental uncertainty. Nonetheless, the market is designed so that its total value is known, and thus its rationality can be evaluated. In two...
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Overpricing persistence in experimental asset markets with intrinsic uncertainty
Sornette, Didier; Andraszewicz, Sandra; Wu, Ke; Murphy, … - 2019
Book / Working Paper
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Panel forecasts of country-level Covid-19 infections
Liu, Laura; Moon, Hyungsik Roger; Schorfheide, Frank - 2020
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Panel Forecasts of Country-Level Covid-19 Infections
Liu, Laura - 2020
Book / Working Paper
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Panel Forecasts of Country-Level Covid-19 Infections
Liu, Laura - 2020
Book / Working Paper
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Informational Efficiency and Behaviour Within In-Play Prediction Markets
Angelini, Giovanni - 2020
We propose a practical framework to detect mispricing, test informational efficiency and evaluate the behavioural biases within high-frequency prediction markets, especially in how prices react to news. We show this using betting exchange data for association football, exploiting the moment when...
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Experimental Asset Markets with An Indefinite Horizon
Duffy, John - 2020
We study indefinitely-lived assets in experimental markets and find that the traded prices of these assets are on average about 40% of the risk neutral fundamental value. Neither uncertainty about the value of total dividend payments nor horizon uncertainty about the duration of trade can...
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Improving decisions with market information : an experiment on corporate prediction markets
Dianat, Ahrash; Siemroth, Christoph - 2021
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Improving Decisions With Market Information : An Experiment on Corporate Prediction Markets
Dianat, Ahrash - 2020
Book / Working Paper
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The 'Write' Size of Trading Behavior : Overconfidence, Prices, and Bubbles in Experimental Asset Markets
Bogan, Vicki L. - 2020
This study analyzes the role that overconfidence plays in investor trading behavior. Using a unique measure of confidence (signature size) with an experimental economics approach, we find that those who are more confident bid significantly higher for assets in simulated trading exercises. This...
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The wisdom of the crowd and prediction markets
Dai, Min; Jia, Yanwei; Kou, Steven - 2021
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The Wisdom of the Crowd and Prediction Markets
Dai, Min - 2020
Book / Working Paper
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A logarithmic market scoring rule agent-based model to evaluate prediction markets
Carvalho, Athos V. C.; Silveira, Douglas; Ely, Regis Augusto - 2023
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A culture of greed : Bubble formation in experimental asset markets with greedy and non-greedy traders
Hoyer, Karlijn; Zeisberger, Stefan; Breugelmans, Seger M.; … - 2023
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Market Efficiency and Continuous Information Arrival : Evidence from Prediction Markets
Docherty, Paul - 2019
Two regularities in financial economics are that prices underreact to news events and that they display short-term momentum. This paper tests for the presence of these regularities in prediction markets offered by the betting exchange Betfair on the 2008 Ryder Cup Golf Competition. Betfair...
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Behavioural effects and market dynamics in field and laboratory experimental asset markets
Andraszewicz, Sandra; Wu, Ke; Sornette, Didier - 2019
A vast literature investigating behavioural underpinnings of financial bubbles and crashes relies on laboratory experiments. However, it is not yet clear how findings generated in a highly artificial environment relate to the human behaviour in the wild. It is of concern that the laboratory...
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Testing market regulations in experimental asset markets : the case of margin purchases
Füllbrunn, Sascha; Neugebauer, Tibor - 2022
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The emergence of markets and artificial market experiments
Taniguchi, Kazuhisa - 2022
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Default agent set for artificial futures market simulation
Nakajima, Yoshihiro; Mori, Naoki; Aruka, Yūji - 2022
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Over-the-counter versus double auction in asset markets with near-zero-intelligence traders
Lu, Dong; Zhan, Yaosong - 2022
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Agent-based artificial financial market with evolutionary algorithm
Chen, Yan; Xu, Zezhou; Yu, Wenqiang - 2022
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Mind, body, bubble! : psychological and biophysical dimensions of behavior in experimental asset markets
Butler, David J.; Cheung, Stephen L. - 2018
Asset market bubbles and crashes are a major source of economic instability and inefficiency. Sometimes ascribed to animal spirits or irrational exuberance, their source remains imperfectly understood. Experimental methods can isolate systematic deviations from an asset's fundamental value in a...
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On booms that never bust : ambiguity in experimental asset markets with bubbles
Corgnet, Brice; Hernán González, Roberto; Kujal, Praveen - 2020
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10012501301
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On booms that never bust : ambiguity in experimental asset markets with bubbles
Corgnet, Brice; Hernán González, Roberto; Kujal, Praveen - 2018
Book / Working Paper
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Prediction markets and poll releases : when are prices most informative?
Brown, Alasdair; Reade, J. James; Vaughan Williams, Leighton - 2018
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An experimental study of bond market pricing
Weber, Matthias; Duffy, John; Schram, Arthur - 2016
An important feature of bond markets is the relationship between initial public offering prices and the probability of the issuer defaulting. First, this probability affects bond prices. Second, IPO prices determine the default probability. Though the market equilibrium has been shown to predict...
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An experimental study of bond market pricing
Weber, Matthias; Duffy, John; Schram, Arthur - 2016
Book / Working Paper
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An experimental study of bond market pricing
Weber, Matthias; Duffy, John; Schram, Arthur - 2016
Book / Working Paper
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An Experimental Study of Bond Market Pricing
Weber, Matthias - 2017
Book / Working Paper
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Distilling the Wisdom of Crowds : Prediction Markets versus Prediction Polls
Atanasov, Pavel D. - 2017
We report the results of the first large-scale, long-term, experimental test between two crowd sourcing methods – prediction markets and prediction polls. More than 2,400 participants made forecasts on 261 events over two seasons of a geopolitical prediction tournament. Some forecasters traded...
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Information aggregation in a prediction market for climate outcomes
Aliakbari, Elmira; McKitrick, Ross - 2017
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10011609527
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Cash versus extra-credit incentives in experimental asset markets
Ding, Shuze; Lugovskyy, Volodymyr; Puzzello, Daniela; … - 2018
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Cash versus extra-credit incentives in experimental asset markets
Ding, Shuze; Lugovskyy, Volodymyr; Puzzello, Daniela; … - 2017
Book / Working Paper
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Bubbles in experimental asset markets
Kujal, Praveen; Powell, Owen - 2017
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Thou shalt not trade : an analysis of the violations of no-trade predictions in experimental asset markets
Kleinlercher, Daniel; Stöckl, Thomas - 2021
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Asset market bubbles in an experiment with sequential information releases
Kluger, Brian D. - 2021
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Trading strategies and market microstructure : evidence from a prediction market
Rothschild, David; Sethi, Rajiv - 2016
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Trading Strategies and Market Microstructure : Evidence from a Prediction Market
Rothschild, David - 2016
Book / Working Paper
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Statistically Measuring 2016 Presidential Candidate Electability : Evidence from Prediction Markets
Hartley, Jonathan - 2016
We use prediction market data from Betfair, the world's largest Internet betting exchange, to measure the electability of 2016 Presidential candidates using regressions that compare the general election contest and party nomination win probabilities for each candidate. A candidate who is more...
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Field experiments in markets
Al-Ubaydli, Omar; List, John A. - 2017
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Field experiments in markets
Al-Ubaydli, Omar; List, John A. - 2016
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Field Experiments in Markets
Al-Ubaydli, Omar - 2016
Book / Working Paper
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Field Experiments in Markets
Al-Ubaydli, Omar - 2016
Book / Working Paper
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Essays on the distribution of income, attention, and rewards
Legge, Stefan - 2016
Die vorliegende Dissertation verwendet empirische Methoden zur Untersuchung von Problemen in den Bereichen Makroökonomie, internationaler Handel, Politische Ökonomie und Verhaltensökonomie. Kapitel 1 besteht aus einer Zusammenfassung der Literatur zur Frage, welche Faktoren die...
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Far from the madding crowd : collective wisdom in prediction markets
Bottazzi, Giulio; Giachini, Daniele - 2016
We investigate market selection and bet pricing in a simple Arrow security economy which we show is equivalent to the repeated prediction market models studied in the literature. We derive the condition for long run survival of more than one agent (the crowd) and quantify the information content...
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Contagion in experimantal financial markets
Vardanyan, Suren - 2016
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10011656193
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