This paper examines the impact of political polarization on public trust in the Fed and its influence on macroeconomic expectations. Using a large-scale survey experiment which we fielded on President Trump's 2025 inauguration day, we study how households form beliefs about the Fed regarding its...

In most national elections, voters face a key choice between continuity and change. Electoral turnovers occur when the incumbent candidate or party fails to win reelection. To understand how turnovers affect national outcomes, we study the universe of presidential and parliamentary elections...

We study how partisan alignment across levels of government affects coalition formation and government stability using a regression discontinuity design and a large dataset of Spanish municipal elections. We document a positive effect of alignment on both government formation and stability....

This is a report of an analysis of voting power in the Finnish Parliament. The purpose of the analysis was (a) to reveal some characteristics of the indices for measuring a priori voting power, (b) to discuss the descriptive power of the chosen indices with respect to the composition of...

Leaders compensate supporters not just for performing their duties but also in order to preempt an overthrow by the same supporters. We show how succession rules affect the power of leaders relative to supporters as well as the resources expended on possible succession struggles. We compare two...

Die Publikation untersucht auf Grundlage bisher unberücksichtigter Quellenbestände erstmals eingehend Inhalt und Entstehungshintergründe des wirtschaftspolitischen Sofortprogramms des ersten Kabinetts Helmut Kohls. Dabei wird deutlich,welchen Einfluss die besondere Situation zwischen der...

Vereinbaren nationale Regierungen internationale Abkommen und Verträge, haben sie ein Selbstbindungsproblem: Sie sagen ihren Regierungspartnern aus anderen Ländern zu, dass sich ihr Heimatland in der Zukunft an heute vereinbarte internationale Abkommen und Verträge halten wird. Doch wissen...

Vereinbaren nationale Regierungen internationale Abkommen und Verträge, haben sie ein Selbstbindungsproblem: Sie sagen ihren Regierungspartnern aus anderen Ländern zu, dass sich ihr Heimatland in der Zukunft an heute vereinbarte internationale Abkommen und Verträge halten wird. Doch wissen...

In der Februar-Umfrage des Ökonomenpanels von ifo und FAZ wurden Professoren für Volkswirtschaftslehre an deutschen Universitäten zu den Ergebnissen der Sondierungsgespräche zwischen CDU/CSU und SPD befragt. Eine Mehrzahl der Teilnehmer zeigte sich weitgehend enttäuscht von diesen...

Little is known about the effects of regime change on government workers' job satisfaction. Conventional theories of work satisfaction have identified various individual or organisational antecedents of public employees' well-being in many different contexts. In this study, we add an additional...

Ein Jahr nach der Wahl Donald Trumps zum Präsidenten der Vereinigten Staaten von Amerika wurden in der Quartalsbefragung des ifo World Economic Survey weltweit Wirtschaftsexperten und in gleicher Form in der November-Umfrage des Ökonomenpanels von ifo und FAZ Professoren für...

We study the desirability of limits on the public debt and of political turnover in an economy where incumbents have an incentive to set public expenditures above the socially optimal level due to rent-seeking motives. Parties alternate in office and cannot commit to future policies, but they...

We study the desirability of limits on the public debt and of political turnover in an economy where incumbents have an incentive to set public expenditures above the socially optimal level due to rent-seeking motives. Parties alternate in office and cannot commit to future policies, but they...

Theories of multilateral bargaining and coalition formation applied to legislatures predict that parties' seat shares determine their bargaining power. We present findings that are difficult to reconcile with this prediction. We use data from 2,898 municipal Spanish elections in which two...

Firms in Africa report "regulatory and economic policy uncertainty" as a top constraint to their growth. This paper argues that often firms in Africa do not cope with policy rules, rather they face deals: firm-specific policy actions that can be influenced by firm actions (such as bribes) and...

Theories of multilateral bargaining and coalition formation applied to legislatures predict that parties' seat shares determine their bargaining power. We present findings that are difficult to reconcile with this prediction. We use data from 2,898 municipal Spanish elections in which two...

Theories of multilateral bargaining and coalition formation applied to legislatures predict that parties' seat shares determine their bargaining power. We present findings that are difficult to reconcile with this prediction. We use data from 2,898 municipal Spanish elections in which two...

Die vorliegende Studie untersucht erstmalig für die Ukraine und Polen, wie der Wechsel der vertretenen Regierungspartei in der Region und die Absorptionsfähigkeit von FDI das regionale Wirtschaftswachstum beeinflussen. Die empirische Analyse erfolgt auf regionaler Ebene für den Zeitraum...

Die vorliegende Studie untersucht erstmalig für die Ukraine und Polen, wie der Wechsel der vertretenen Regierungspartei in der Region und die Absorptionsfähigkeit von FDI das regionale Wirtschaftswachstum beeinflussen. Die empirische Analyse erfolgt auf regionaler Ebene für den Zeitraum...

The empirical literature on the relationship between democracy and growth has yielded conflicting results. Cross-country studies have failed to identify a significant impact of democracy on growth, while within-country studies have found a strong positive effect of the transition to democracy on...

We consider an economy where competing political parties alternate in office. Due to rent-seeking motives, incumbents have an incentive to set public expenditures above the socially optimum level. Parties cannot commit to future policies, but they can forge a political compromise where each...

We analyze stock market reactions to announcements of political appointments from the private sector and corporate appointments of former government officials. Using unique data on corporate affiliations and announcements of all Senate-confirmed U.S. Defense Department appointees of six...

We consider an economy where competing political parties alternate in office. Due to rent-seeking motives, incumbents have an incentive to set public expenditures above the socially optimum level. Parties cannot commit to future policies, but they can forge a political compromise where each...

We analyze stock market reactions to announcements of political appointments from the private sector and corporate appointments of former government officials. Using unique data on corporate affiliations and announcements of all Senate-confirmed U.S. Defense Department appointees of six...

In this paper we reassess the role of ethnic favoritism in Sub-Saharan Africa. Using data from 18 African countries, we study how primary education and infant mortality of ethnic groups were affected by changes in the ethnicity of the countries' leaders during the last fifty years. Our results...