Commodity prices are expected to decline by about 7 percent overall this year, reflecting subdued global economic activity, elevated trade tensions and policy uncertainty, ample global supply of oil, and weather-related supply shocks. In 2026, commodity prices are forecast to fall by a further 7...

Commodity prices are set to fall sharply this year, by about 12 percent overall, as weakening global economic growth weighs on demand. In 2026, commodity prices are projected to reach a six-year low. Oil prices are expected to exert substantial downward pressure on the aggregate commodity index...

The conflict in the Middle East has been exerting upward pressures on prices of key commodities, notably oil and gold. High commodity prices, despite relatively subdued global GDP growth, suggest some countervailing forces offsetting tepid demand, such as heightened geopolitical strains and...

Commodity price co-movements significantly impact investment decisions. High correlations constrain portfolio diversification and limit risk mitigation potential. While international markets often exhibit strong price linkages, understanding national-level dynamics is crucial for effective...

The aim of this study is to enhance the understanding of volatility dynamics in commodity returns, such as gold and cocoa, as well as the financial market index S&P500. It provides a comprehensive overview of each model's efficacy in capturing volatility clustering, asymmetry, and long-term...

This paper aims to investigate the sensitivity of the gas market: Russian Natural Gas and Liquefied Gas, to other commodity categories. It sheds light on the Russian-Ukrainian crisis by using an Autoregressive Distributed Lag model on daily prices of Russian Natural Gas, Liquefied Natural Gas,...

This paper investigates tail-risk transmission and asymmetric dependence in commodity markets using an asymmetric fuzzy vine copula framework applied to gold, crude oil, natural gas, and silver from 1 January 2015 to 1 January 2025, extracted from Yahoo Finance. Bootstrap-based trapezoidal fuzzy...

The global energy transition is reshaping commodity demand, yet its implications for commodity risk transmission remain unclear. We analyze connectedness among Energy Transition Metals (ETMs) - a subset of metals that are key inputs in clean energy technologies - energy commodities, and...

This study examines the determinants of gold returns over the period 2000-2025, a period marked by recurrent financial crises, geopolitical tensions, and major shifts in global monetary conditions. As gold represents both a strategic commodity and a key reserve asset, understanding the channels...

This study investigates the long-memory properties of the prices of three Kenyan commodities (tea, coffee and horticultural products) by applying fractional integration methods to monthly data spanning the period from August 1998 to December 2024. The empirical results provide evidence of...

It is widely observed that primary commodity prices comove. A parallel literature asserts that correlation risk matters for financial returns. Our novel study connects these topics and presents evidence that commodity correlation risk is both non-constant and important for returns. We reconsider...

Financial and operational supply chain risks are often managed independently, by managers in different business units and with widely-varying viewpoints. Yet, differences in incentives often result in a mismatch in priorities and processes. In 2008, BMW established the Raw Material Management...

In this study, we analyze the seasonal behaviour of Indian agriculture, energy and metal commodities through the ten years preceding Super-cycle (2003-13) by considering monthly data for near-month futures prices to remove basis variance. The paper aims to investigate the seasonal behaviour of...

Despite frequent debates on commodity prices, limited attention has been paid to the processes, strategies and practices through which commodity prices are 'made' and related institutions and infrastructures. 'World commodity prices' are not passively 'discovered' but are outcomes of contested...

This paper investigates the macroeconomic impacts of structural oil price shocks by employing a Global Vector Autoregression (GVAR) framework, utilizing the structural shocks as identified by Baumeister and Hamilton (2019). Our analysis differentiates among three types of oil shocks: economic...

Soybeans play a critical role in China's food system and hold significant importance in ensuring national food security. This study explores the correlation between soybean futures prices and international soybean import prices. It employs a time-series model to analyse the volatility of the...

Consensus holds that Emerging Markets and Developing Economies (EMDEs) engage in procyclical fiscal behavior. We emphasize that considering conditional responses to macroeconomic shocks is crucial when evaluating fiscal cyclicality, as neglecting this can result in significant biases. This study...

Speculation has long been thought to have significant economic effects, but it is difficult to measure, making it challenging to examine these effects empirically. In this paper we measure speculation in the UK since 1785 by using business and financial reporting in The Times newspaper. Our...

This paper examines the dependence, systemic risk spillover, return and volatility spillover, and portfolio implications across various timescales between the Green Bond (GB) and U.S. S&P 500 Stock (SP), Vanguard Total World Stock Index Fund (VT), Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Ripple, OIL, and...

This study explores correlations and risk spillovers, essential concepts for financial risk management, among commodities (crude oil, gold, and a global commodities index) and emerging stock markets. Using the Asymmetric Dynamic Conditional Correlation-Conditional Value-at-Risk (ADCC-CoVaR)...