Search Results - subject_exact:"Wechselkurs"

A simple method for estimating multiple natural rates simultaneously : estimation of Japan's potential output and natural foreign exchange rate

Kamada, Koichiro - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015616967

Oil price shocks, exchange rate fluctuations, foreign direct investment inflows, and macroeconomic stability : evidence from Kazakhstan using a vector autoregressive approach

Turlybekova, Altynai; Sarsenova, Aķmaral Edílbajķyzy; … - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015617219

Volatility spillover effects in foreign exchange markets among China, Japan, and South Korea

Yu, Bok-Keun; Kim, Kwon Sik - 2026

This paper analyzes the dynamic spillover effects of exchange rate volatility among the foreign exchange markets of China, Japan, and South Korea from January of 2010 to March of 2024 based on exchange rate determination theories, the GJR-GARCH model, and the TVP-VAR model. The key empirical...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015654863

The asymmetric effects of exchange rate on inflation : a QNARDL approach

Tanku, Altin; Skufi, Lorena - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015608958

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The asymmetric effects of exchange rate on inflation : a qnardl approach

Tanku, Altin; Skufi, Lorena - 2026

Book / Working Paper

Automation under constraints : exchange rates interest rates and investment

Ayyagari, Meghana; Maksimovic, Vojislav; Rodrigo, Rodimiro - 2026

The yen depreciation from 2012-2015 reduced robot prices for U.S. firms. Paradoxically, financially constrained firms dramatically increased adoption relative to their unconstrained peers. We rationalize this with a collateral model: robots are pledgeable assets requiring non-pledgeable...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015609860

Who Captures Export Windfalls? Exchange Rates, Export Profitability, and National Saving under Dominant-Currency Pricing

Bakker, Bas - 2026

Under dominant-currency pricing—where many export prices are set in dollars—the real exchange rate allocates export windfalls between producers and consumers. When the real exchange rate is stable, rising dollar export revenues pass through nearly one-for-one into higher real local-currency...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015612694

Services Inflation and the Exchange Rate in Türkiye

Iyer, Tara - 2026

Inflation in Türkiye has been high since 2021. This paper investigates the sources of this inflation and the impact of mitigating exchange rate volatility. Two main findings emerge. First, there has been a significant divergence in inflation dynamics across CPI components since late 2021—in...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015612697

The impact of exchange rate fluctuations on export performance in the context of global supply chain participation : the case of automotive exports in Egypt

Ebiary, Hend El; Garf, Mona El; Fayed, Mona E. - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015614150

Exchange rate appreciation and structural adjustment : evidence from the Plaza Accord

Kumanomido, Hiroshi - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015616378

The spillovers of LSAPs on banks in the euro area

Graziano, Marco; Koechlin, Marius; Tischbirek, Andreas - 2026

We study the spillovers of large-scale asset purchases (LSAPs) in the U.S. on financial intermediation in the euro area using bank-level supervisory data and high-frequency identified policy surprises. Our detailed panel data permit us to trace the impact of LSAPs through bank balance sheets. We...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015592007

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The spillovers of LSAPs on banks in the euro area

Graziano, Marco; Koechlin, Marius; Tischbirek, Andreas - 2026

Book / Working Paper

OPENSIMPLEST : the smallest SFC open economy model

Zezza, Francesco - 2026

This article introduces OPENSIMPLEST, a highly parsimonious stock-flow consistent (SFC) model of an open economy. The model is designed as a pedagogical and analytical benchmark that preserves the core mechanisms of more complex open-economy SFC frameworks while remaining complete, transparent,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015588384

Demand for dollars : evidence from survey expectations

Ballensiefen, Benedikt; Somogyi, Fabricius; Winterberg, … - 2026

We study the determinants of US dollar demand across market participants and traded instruments using survey-based exchange rate and macroeconomic expectations. Leveraging granular FX trading data and forward looking expectations, we present three results. First, currency investors increase...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015605616

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Demand for dollars : evidence from survey expectations

Ballensiefen, Benedikt; Somogyi, Fabricius; Winterberg, … - 2026 - This version: 26 April 2026

Edition: This version: 26 April 2026

Book / Working Paper

The dollar and the F-35 : balance-sheet imperialism

Lapabitsas, Kōstas - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015619853

Macroeconomic determinants and green assets in explaining stock return dynamics : evidence from Indonesia

Nurdina, Nurdina; Nurkholis, Nurkholis; Adib, Noval; … - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015620137

Do fluctuations in energy sector matter for monetary policy? : an ARDL and NARDL approach

Yermekova, Zhanna; Coban, Orhan; Turarov, Dauren; … - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015621544

Exchange rate passthrough in Latin America : does dollarization matter?

Notte, Vincent - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015625017

Impact of macro-economic factors on CEO compensation : evidence from JSE-listed banks

Marozva, Rudo Rachel; Maloa, Frans - 2026

The debate over CEO compensation persists despite extensive efforts by academics and technocrats to understand its determinants. Most research has focused on how firm-specific characteristics and CEO-specific traits influence CEO compensation. However, the results have been contradictory,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015626013

Do monetary policy shocks affect CO₂ emissions? : evidence from Brazil

Attílio, Luccas Assis; Faria, João Ricardo; Mollick, … - 2026

This paper examines whether monetary policy shocks affect CO₂ emissions over time in Brazil. We show that CO₂ emissions decline persistently following contractionary monetary policy shocks. The relationship between monetary policy and CO₂ emissions in Brazil is assessed through two...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015626015

Global financial cycle, media coverage and currencies of emerging markets

Beckmann, Joscha; Agyapong, Joseph - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015627112

Monetary fundamentals and exchange rate forecasting in hyperinflation

Alawin, Mohammad - 2026

The Meese-Rogoff puzzle suggests that exchange rate models rarely outperform a random walk in out-of-sample forecasting. This paper re-examines that puzzle in the context of the German hyperinflation, an environment in which monetary forces dominate economic behavior. Using simple bivariate...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015628383

Economic policy uncertainty and exchange rate volatility : an asymmetric GARCH-MIDAS approach with simulation-based validation

Barguellil, Achouak; Alnabulsi, Khalil - 2026

This paper examines the asymmetric impact of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on exchange rate volatility across a sample of developed and emerging economies. Using an asymmetric GARCH-MIDAS model, volatility is decomposed into short-term and long-term components, with the latter associated...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015628443

Bilateral trade and exchange rate volatility : evidence from a multiple-threshold nonlinear ARDL model

Kim, Min-Joon - 2026

This study applies a multiple threshold nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (MTNARDL) model to examine the asymmetric impact of real exchange rate volatility on Vietnam's exports and imports with its three leading trading partners: China, the United States, and South Korea. By allowing...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015628462

The U.S. dollar as a dollar-channel proxy in gold return dynamics : evidence from 2000-2025

Sayegh, Rosette Ghossoub; Accary, Johnny - 2026

This study examines the determinants of gold returns over the period 2000-2025, a period marked by recurrent financial crises, geopolitical tensions, and major shifts in global monetary conditions. As gold represents both a strategic commodity and a key reserve asset, understanding the channels...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015628650

The impact of exchange rate depreciation on the performance of non-financial companies in Romania

Orțan, David; Sîrbu, Dragoș - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015637493

Risk premiums, market volatility, and exchange rate dynamics : evidence from the Yen carry trade

Guyot, Opale; Montgomery, Heather; Yang, Peiqing - 2026

Persistent deviations from Uncovered Interest Rate Parity (UIRP) represent a central puzzle in international finance and a key source of currency risk for global investors. This study examines the UIRP puzzle in the JPY/USD market through the lens of financial risk transmission, focusing on how...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015638924

Graph attention networks in exchange rate forecasting

Landmesser-Rusek, Joanna; Orłowski, Arkadiusz - 2026

Exchange rate forecasting is an important issue in financial market analysis. Currency rates form a dynamic network of connections that can be efficiently modeled using graph neural networks (GNNs). The key mechanism of GNNs is the message passing between nodes, allowing for better modeling of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015640548

ECB exchange rate communication

Comazzi, Fabio; Domenech Palacios, Mar; Ehrmann, Michael; … - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015665955

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ECB exchange rate communication

Comazzi, Fabio; Domenech Palacios, Mar; Ehrmann, Michael; … - 2026

Book / Working Paper

Nominal versus real deposit dollarization in Zambia : determinants and monetary policy insights

Funjika, Patricia; Gatawa, Mufara; Ndautu, Kwabala - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015641473

Exchange rate insulation revisited

Corsetti, Giancarlo; Küster, Keith; Müller, Gernot J.; … - 2026

We confront the notion that flexible exchange rates insulate countries from external disturbances with new evidence for the euro area (EA) and 20 of its neighbors. Using high-frequency data, we first establish that countries with flexible exchange rates ("floats") let their currencies depreciate...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015641819

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Exchange rate insulation revisited

Corsetti, Giancarlo; Küster, Keith; Müller, Gernot J.; … - 2026

Book / Working Paper

Exchange rate insulation revisited

Corsetti, Giancarlo; Küster, Keith; Müller, Gernot J.; … - 2026

Book / Working Paper

Herding in the foreign exchange market

Allayioti, Anastasia; Garratt, Anthony - 2026

Using a recent and comprehensive data set covering nine of the most actively traded currencies on a monthly basis from 1995 to 2024, this paper explores the presence and potential drivers of herding behaviour in foreign exchange rate forecasts. The dataset features an average of 40-50...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015655766

Short-term forecasting of four Rand-denominated currency markets (EUR/ZAR, CHF/ZAR, BRL/ZAR, CNY/ZAR) : a comparative analysis of Support Vector Regression, XGBoost and Principal Component Regression

Fundama, Sthembile Albertinah; Ravele, Thakhani; … - 2026

Using daily data from Investing.com South Africa, this study investigates the forecasting performance of four Rand currency rate markets (EUR/ZAR, CHF/ZAR, BRL/ZAR, and CNY/ZAR) from 13 February 2018 until 24 February 2025. The predictive fitness of three competing models, Support Vector...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015656136

Normalising flow enhanced GARCH models : a two-stage framework for flexible innovation modelling in financial time series

Hassan, Abdullah; Mlambo, Farai; Mongwe, Wilson Tsakane - 2026

We introduce the Normalising Flow GARCH (NF-GARCH), a two-stage hybrid framework that enhances traditional GARCH models by replacing restrictive parametric innovation distributions with learned densities via normalising flows. Our approach preserves the interpretability of standard variance...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015656145

Learning about inflation and exchange rates

Beuermann, Diether W.; Bottan, Nicolas L.; Hoffmann, Bridget - 2026

We study how expert forecasts about inflation and nominal exchange rates affect households' inflation perceptions, exchange rate beliefs, and later durable-goods holdings in a small open economy. Using a randomized information experiment in Suriname, we provide households with expert forecasts...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015656704

Expectations, credibility, and the persistence of currency aubstitution

Alawin, Mohammad - 2026

This study examines why currency substitution proves so difficult to reverse, even after countries succeed in stabilizing inflation. Focusing on Bolivia, Brazil, Mexico, and Turkey-economies that endured severe inflationary episodes before implementing stabilization programs-the paper asks a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015652131

Firm-to-firm financial linkages and dollar risk transmission

Hardy, Bryan; Saffie, Felipe; Simonovska, Ina - 2026

We study how U.S. dollar fluctuations transmit through domestic supply chains in emerging markets. Large firms borrow in foreign currency and extend trade credit to domestic partners, exposing the supply chain to exchange rate risk. We develop a model where financially constrained suppliers pass...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015632187

Asymmetric effects of oil price shocks on stock markets : a NARDL analysis for Türkiye and Kazakhstan

İmamoğlu, Özkan - 2026

This study examines the asymmetric responses of stock market indices in Türkiye and Kazakhstan to oil price shocks during the 2010-2025 period. Using the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) model, the study decomposes the nonlinear effects of oil price fluctuations on financial...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015633797

Developing a risk-based stress testing framework for microfinance banks in Uzbekistan : a SVAR approach

Nematov, Farrukh - 2026

This paper develops a risk-based stress-testing framework for emerging microfinance banks using a structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) approach. The model captures the dynamic transmission of key macroeconomic shocks, including economic activity, monetary policy, and exchange-rate movements,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015634066

A note on currency hedging of dollar investments of Swiss investors 1974-2025

Kugler, Peter - 2026

Our econometric (cointegration) analysis of the Swiss franc US dollar exchange rates over the period 1974 - 2025 provides strong evidence for a negative bias of the forward rate as predictor of the spot rate for the years up to 2007, which disappears with data from 2008 onwards. This implies...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015635688

The asymmetric effect of capital flows and credit default swap spreads on the US dollar/Turkish lira exchange rate

Akbal, Emel; Civcir, İrfan - 2026

This study investigates the asymmetric effects of capital flows and Credit Default Swap (CDS) spreads on the US dollar/Turkish lira exchange rate employing the Nonlinear Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) methodology. We used a Turkish monthly dataset covering the period from 2003 to 2022....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015666467

Assessing cross-currency predictability in forex markets : insights from limit order book data

Petrova, Yana; Vilhelmsson, Anders; Nordén, Lars L. - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015668675

Commodity prices and monetary dynamics in Zambia

Chilima, Nundo - 2026

This paper examines how external commodity shocks, exchange rate depreciation, and monetary policy shocks shape macroeconomic adjustment in Zambia. Using monthly data from 2010 to 2024, the analysis applies sign-restricted local projections to trace the responses of output, inflation, exchange...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015667768

Stablecoin flows and spillovers to FX markets

Aldasoro, Iñaki; Beltran, Paula; Grinberg, Federico - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015668201

A Bayesian Dirichlet autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model for forecasting currency shares

Katz, Harrison; Weiss, Robert E. - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015668703

Fiscal policy, portfolio frictions, and international transmission

Mac Mullen, Marcos - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015669229

Short vs medium-run: exchange rate movements, investment and the currency composition of balance sheets

Camilo Medellín, Juan; Restrepo-Ángel, Sergio - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015665390

Capital flows, exchange rates and financial conditions in EMEs in an evolving international monetary system : papers in this volume were prepared for a meeting of emerging market economy Deputy Governors organised by the Bank for International Settlements on 12-13 March 2026

2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015667777

Examining the impact of exchange rate uncertainty on the Tehran Stock Exchange Index : hybrid approach using wavelet transform and quantile regression model

Poor, Saeed Kian; Hajian, Mohsen - 2026

This study examines the impact of exchange rate uncertainty on the Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) index, addressing the critical role of currency volatility in Iran's sanction-constrained economy. Motivated by the need to understand non-linear market dynamics, it aims to analyze scale-specific and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015666336

The impact of currency market shocks on global bond fund returns and volatility

Lü, Zheng; El Khoury, Rim; Jiang, Zhuhua; Ozcelebi, Oguzhan - 2026

This study employs advanced econometric models-TVP-SV-VAR, BEKK-MGARCH, DCC)-MGARCH, and WQR models-to analyse the exchange rate sensitivity of global bond ETFs. It examines four major funds (BNDX, TPINX, MGBIX, and FGBFX) with differing exposures to Samurai, Yankee, and Bulldog bonds. The...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015664879

Impact of exchange volatility on private- sector credit access in sub-Saharan African

Wajebo, Temesgen Woldamanuel; Alemayehu Geda Fole - 2026

This study investigates the impact of exchange rate volatility on private sector credit supply in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Employing a two-step System Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimator on an unbalanced panel spanning 2003-2021, the analysis addresses endogeneity concerns and dynamic...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015664910

FX option volume

Czech, Robert; Della Corte, Pasquale; Huang, Shiyang; … - 2026

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de, ebvufind01.dmz1.zbw.eu/10015655672