The predictability of monetary policy surprises based on past, public information has been interpreted in two related yet fundamentally different ways. The "Fed information effect" posits that it arises due to markets updating their view of the economy, based on signals implicitly revealed by...

The yield curve is widely regarded as a powerful descriptor of the economy and market expectations. A common approach to its statistical representation relies on a small number of factors summarizing the curve, which can then be used to forecast real economic activity. We argue that optimal...

Effective monetary policy requires maintaining the short-term interbank rate close to the policy rate while limiting its volatility, ensuring smooth transmission, and reducing banks' liquidity and interest rate risks. This paper seeks to identify and explain the drivers of volatility in...

We propose a macro-finance model in which inflation, growth, and the policy rate are driven by unobservable long-run trends and transitory cycles that investors must infer from aggregate data. Their subjective estimates of these trends, and the uncertainty surrounding them, are priced into the...

The smooth functioning of the repo market is essential to financial stability. However, the market has faced repeated episodes of stress in recent years. This paper examines the resilience of the euro-denominated repo market during recent episodes of elevated financial stress, drawing on...

We study the spillovers of large-scale asset purchases (LSAPs) in the U.S. on financial intermediation in the euro area using bank-level supervisory data and high-frequency identified policy surprises. Our detailed panel data permit us to trace the impact of LSAPs through bank balance sheets. We...

We propose a factor model with time-varying loadings for term structure modeling and fore casting. While maintaining the interpretation of the factors as level, slope, and curvature through explicit identification restrictions, we allow the loadings to take flexible shapes by specifying them as...

Using a novel arbitrage-free dynamic term structure model of nominal and real bond prices that accounts for bond-specific liquidity risk premia, this paper provides estimates of bond investors' inflation expectations and associated inflation risk premia in South African sovereign bonds. The...

Financial intermediation in Montenegro has been on a declining trend since independence, with domestic credit to the private sector decreasing from a peak of 86.5 percent of GDP in 2008 to 46.4 percent in 2024. Net interest margin (NIM)—a common indicator of intermediation costs—has remained...

The relationship between Credit Default Swaps (CDS) and cash bonds plays a pivotal role in providing market participants with important information which directly affects investment and risk management strategies. Particularly relevant is the CDS-Bond basis, defined as the difference in basis...

In response to the scarce evidence regarding herd behaviour in emerging and frontier debt markets, this paper investigates the potential mispricing of MENA sovereign risk. We explore whether this mispricing results from international investor herding, where MENA debt assets are collectively...

This study estimates the zero-coupon yield curves for Turkish government nominal bonds from February 2005 to June 2022 using the Nelson-Siegel-Svensson parametric model. We implement a weighting scheme in the objective function, where squared pricing errors are weighted by the inverse of the...

This study models a representative agent with generalized disappointment aversion preferences in an endowment economy. This model addresses the average upward slope in U.S. real bond yields, equity premium puzzle, and equity volatility puzzle. We integrate a two-state Markov switching process...

This paper uses a tractable stochastic integrated‐assessment model to analyze the influence of climate change on asset returns across time and maturity. Quasi‐analytical, or recursive, formulas allow to price various long‐dated assets, including fixed‐income products, derivatives, and...

This paper investigates the long-horizon predictive variance of an international bond strategy where a U.S. investor holds unhedged positions in constant-maturity long-term foreign bonds funded at domestic short-term interest rates. Using over two centuries of data from major economies, the...

In this study, we investigate the relationship between implied equity volatility (VIX) and corporate bond spreads, covering both investment-grade and high-yield sectors. Our dataset spans three significant periods of recent volatility: the 2008/09 financial crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the...

This paper investigates how global uncertainty and macro-financial shocks transmitted to BRICS+ equity markets between April 2016 and July 2025. A vector autoregressive (VAR) framework, complemented by Granger-causality tests, variance decompositions, and impulse response functions, is employed...