Макроэкономические факторы банкротства компаний обрабатывающей отрасли в Российской Федерации

The paper presents the results of an econometric assessment of probabilistic default models on a sample of medium-sized manufacturing companies in Russia for the period from 2012 to 2020. Characteristics of the macroeconomic environment were included in the models. The inclusion of the real effective exchange rate, the growth rate of the exchange rate, the key interest rate or the price of Brent oil in real terms lead to an increase in the forecast power of the base model with internal factors only. The growth in the key interest rate and the price of oil increases the probability of a corporate default.