Расчетная модель общего равновесия для оценки экономического эффекта ранней диагностики болезни Паркинсона

This paper presents a new CGE model of the Russian economy with a health block. We estimate effects of Parkinson's disease (PD) on the Russian economy and population. We distinguish two mechanisms transmitting effects of the PD: a change in the quality of life of a representative household and a decrease in labor supply due to early retirement caused by PD. Our main focus is on effects of early diagnosis of PD coupled with the use of neuroprotective therapy at the prodromal stage of PD. Calculations showed that the cumulative economic effect of PD on the Russian economy, taking into account the forecast of an increase in the incidence of PD over 30 years, can lead to a loss of real GDP in the amount of -0.86%, and a decrease in the utility of households over the same period in the amount of -1.11% of the consumption level of the base year. The high efficiency of early diagnosis in combination with neuroprotective therapy was shown: the cumulative effect, taking into account the prognosis of an increase in the incidence of PD over 30 years of using this method, can give a gain of about 0.68% of the base year GDP, which is accompanied by an increase in the welfare of a representative consumer in the amount of 0.88 % of the baseline consumption. We show that the prevailing channel of influence of PD on macroeconomic parameters is the effect of a reduction in the supply of labor due to an increase in the disability of patients with PD.