Эмпирическая оценка влияния экспортно-импортных операций на экономический рост регионов РФ в условиях внешнего давления

The solution of issues related to the study of the processes of sustainable development of regional-industry systems in the context of the transformation of transnational supply chains is a very relevant research direction in modern economic thought. This, of course, is due to the intensifying sanctions confrontation in recent years, which has escalated in the last decade in the world. In these conditions, the development of methodological tools that allow identifying the possible consequences of such transformations both for the national economy as a whole and for regional-industry complexes in particular becomes a strategically important task. It should be noted that this task cannot be classified as trivial. It requires processing a large volume of statistical data, their systematization, and the construction on this basis of economic and mathematical models that assess the degree of influence of the adjustment of export-import operations on the economic growth of regions and industries. This article is devoted to an attempt to solve this problem and develop methodological tools. The main result of the study is a methodological approach that forms the basis for identifying regional sectors of the economy that are most vulnerable to import supplies and determine the dynamics of economic growth of the region as a whole. Its testing made it possible to identify import-dependent sectors of the economy of the Republic of Tatarstan and, on this basis, construct a series of equations that form the basis for developing predictive assessments of the region’s development in the context of sanctions pressure on the national economy of the Russian Federation.