丹麦房屋抵押贷款系统稳定性分析 (The Stability of Danish Mortgage System)

丹麦2是世界第三大抵押债券市场，其独特的房屋抵押贷款系统有着200 多年的历史，是世界上最 古老的、运行最稳定的房贷系统之一。丹麦房屋抵押贷款模式以高透明度、低信贷风险、和低借贷成 而闻 名于世。在历次金融危机中（包括1930 年经济大萧条、1973 年石油危机、2001 年互联网泡沫、和2008 年美 国次贷危机），丹麦房贷系统稳如磐石，它不需要政府提供任何资金援助，自己就平稳地发挥作用。即使在 1813 年丹麦政府破产的情况下，丹麦也没有发生过一起针对债券投资者的信用违约。而拥有世界第一、第二 大抵押债券市场的美国和德国，在2008 年的次贷危机中分别付出了高达3000 亿美元和1000 亿欧元的财政援 助代价。历史证明，丹麦稳定的房贷系统性对社会、经济的持续发展起到了相当重要的作用。美国著名金融 学家乔治•索罗斯曾多次建议奥巴马政府鉴丹麦模式进行房贷系统改革。在他看来如果美国能够以丹麦模式为 模版，结合本国的实际情况，就有可能彻底解决其房贷系统中现存的一些严重问题。 本文通过介绍丹麦模式的“资金平衡原则”和“流动性平衡原则”，并结合历次金融危机对丹麦抵押 贷款系统所造成的不同冲击，对丹麦模式的稳定性进行全面的、系统的分析。其主要目的是从多角度分析丹 麦模式对金融危机的抗冲击能力，从而为我国房地产市场长期稳定的发展提供一些借鉴。Denmark is the world's third largest mortgage bond market. Its mortgage system has more than 200 years of history and is the world's oldest, most stable mortgage system. The Danish mortgage model is characterized by its unique Funding Balance Principle and Liquidity Balance Principle. During the financial crises of Great Depression (1930), Oil Crisis (1973), Dotnet Bubble (2001), and Subprime Crisis (2008), the Danish mortgage banks have never introduced any default to bond investors, even without any financial support from government. In contrast, the governments of the world's first and second largest mortgage bond markets, the United States and Germany, have paid $300 billion and € 100 billion financial support to their mortgage banks in the subprime crisis. During the last two centuries, it has been proved that the Danish mortgage model plays an important role in both stabilizing Danish housing market prices and improving the country's economics development. George Soros has repeatedly suggested Obama government to adapt Danish model to reconstruct the United States mortgage system. In his view, the Danish mortgage model is the best way to solve the existing problems in the U.S. mortgage system. In this paper, we study the stability of the Danish mortgage system with main focus on the Danish Funding Balance Principle and Liquidity Balance Principle. The Funding Balance Principle is the basic principle of the Danish model, which separates credit risk from interest risk, liquidity risk, among others. In contrast, the Liquidity Balance Principle plays a supplementary role to the Funding Balance Principle by means of providing liquidity to the mortgage bond market and of increasing the model's resistance to financial crisis shocks. Furthermore, we introduce the Danish model's credit risk management system, as well as the market transparency. Finally, we summarize our study in section 6