养老金亏空、延迟退休与改革阻力—— 基于投票理论视角

This article employed a voting model to describe the optimum strategy for later retirement. The results indicated that, later retirement just a emergency measure to pension shortfall. The preference to later retirement was related with the gap between actual age and legal retirement age. The pensioner who has retired would support, and the worker who’s age was near to legal retirement age would against, but the worker who’s age was far away to legal retirement age was uncertainty. Generally speaking, high skilled labor was more like to later retirement than low skilled labor. But actually, the preference to later retirement not only related with the burdens and benefits of pension reform, but also related with the feeling of burden, and the growth speed of wage , social position and job satisfaction. The resistance to reform was mainly comes from the pensioners who near to legal retirement age that still working and the low skilled labor wich far away from legal retirement age. Government should concentrate on giving a successfully persuasion to the opponents, and the input of human capital also should be raised.