地方財政健全化指標における相互依存関係の実証分析

The purpose of this paper is to evaluate an effect of new fiscal rules in the Japanese prefectural government. Especially, we focus on creative accounting [von Hagen and Wolff (2006)] in the Law Relating to the Financial Soundness of Local Governments (2007, Law No. 94). We estimated the effect of fiscal rules by using SUR model. Our results show that the new rules may have induced local governments to use stock-flow adjustments. The Japanese prefectural government increased future burden ratio introducing new rules while they decreased their deficit.