大陆对台经济反制的经济影响分析 (Quantitative Analysis of the Impact of Mainland China's Economic Sanctions on Taiwan)

English Abstract: Following U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, Mainland China took action to impose ecomomic sanctions on Taiwan. This study applies the global CGE model to simulate the following scenarios of the economic sanctions: S1) the reality scenario: Mainland China’s ban on imports of Taiwanese citrus, frozen fish, processing food and exports of natural sands to Taiwan.S2) the assumption scenario: Assuming that Taiwan imposes a retaliation by banning the exports of Taiwanese semiconductor to mainland China. The results show that under the existing sanctions (S1) Taiwan’s economies suffers a slight decline. The sectors that are banned by mainland China face losses in outputs and increase in the market prices. On the other hand, China’s economy is not actually affected by the sanctions under the first scenario. If Taiwan decides to imposes exports of semiconductor to mainland China (S2), Taiwan’s economy faces a significant loss. And the two regions’ may have trade diversion in the semiconductor sector. Taiwan’s exports to US, EU and ASEAN will increase, while mainland China may turn to Korea for imports of chips