西方国家对俄贸易制裁经济影响 (The Economic Impact of Western Sanctions on Russia)

English Abstract: Economic warfare has increasingly been used as a strategic measure in response to geopolitical-economic conflicts. Russia’s war on Ukraine has prompted unprecedented Western sanctions on Russia, targeting Russia’s trade, pillar industries, individuals and financial sectors. This study applies the CGE model to simulate an array of sanctions. This includes:• trade sanctions: including a ban on the exports of military, technological, bio-technological goods, and airspace; revocation of Russia’s MFN status;• financial sanctions: freezing Russia’s central bank assets, excluding key Russian banks from the Western financial systems, and removing Russia from the SWIFT system; • sanctions on the energy sector: ban on importing Russia’s oil and gas.The results show that the sanctions will lead to Russia’s economic downturn and the substantial increase of the global energy prices, especially for those EU countries that highly depend on the import of Russia’s oil and gas. This will further increase the inflation risk in the global scale. The trade embargo on Russia will also lead to positive spill-over effects for China’s trade, strengthening Russia-China trade relations