2010 Outlook of the U.S. and World Sugar Markets, 2009-2019

This report evaluates the U.S. and world sugar markets for 2009-2019 using the Global Sugar Policy Simulation Model. This analysis is based on assumptions about general economic conditions, agricultural policies, population growth, weather conditions, and technological changes. Both the U.S. and world sugar economies are predicted to remain stable over the next ten years in spite of the 2007-08 increase in world oil prices. That increase in oil price caused an increase in the conversion of sugar into ethanol in Brazil, while other exporting countries increased their production of sugar in response to higher sugar prices. Sugar prices remained strong in 2009 as the world’s economies recover slowly from the recession. World demand for sugar is expected to grow at a similar rate to world supply, resulting in Caribbean sugar prices remaining near the 16.0-19.0 cents/lb range throughout the forecast period. The U.S. wholesale price of sugar is projected to increase from 33.72 cents/lb in 2009 to 36.19 cents/lb in 2019, if Brazil continues to convert sugar into ethanol. It is projected that Mexico would be able to export 483 thousand metric tons of sugar to the United States by 2019. World trade volumes of sugar are expected to increase throughout the forecast period.