5. The application of human modeling technology to the design, evaluation and operation of complex systems

This chapter reviews the ability of the emerging human performance modeling technologies to support the design and operation of complex systems. The ability of existing technologies to meet current application needs is analyzed, and the results are then used to assess the areas where additional research and development is most needed. Following a brief history of human performance modeling, a taxonomy of models and modeling techniques is established, as a framework for remaining discussion. The human performance modeling technology base is separately analyzed for its ability to support system design processing and to support system operation. The system design process analysis considers the various roles that human performance models may play during that process, ranging from generating design concepts to affording simulation-based range of roles, from training to performance support to automation. These analyses demonstrate that human modeling technology has reached a sufficient state of maturity and has become a proven contributor of the complex systems engineering process. Challenges for further high-payoff research are also presented in five categories: cognition, knowledge management, team and organizational structure and processes, predictive models of training, and human-centered systems engineering.