A brief analysis of aggregate measures as an alternative to the median at Central Bank of Brazil's Survey of Professional Forecasts

Fabia A. de Carvalho

This paper presents a brief analysis of representative measures of inflation expectations from Central Bank of Brazil's Survey of Professional Forecasts that are alternative to the median response. We build time series with the mode and core measures of inflation expectations from the panel of professional forecasts surveyed from January 2002 to September 2012. We compare them to the median response with respect to their predictive power in a 12-month-ahead horizon. We also compare the predictive power of the alternative measures with the realized core of consumer price inflation.

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Year of publication:	May-August 2013
Authors:	Carvalho, Fabia A. de
Published in:	Economia : revista da ANPEC. - Bingley, United Kingdom : Emerald, ISSN 2358-2820, ZDB-ID 2451788-4. - Vol. 14.2013, 2, p. 11-26
Subject:	Inflation expectations \| Market forecasts \| Median \| Core inflation \| Trimmed core inflation \| Brazil \| Brasilien \| Inflation \| Inflationserwartung \| Prognoseverfahren \| Forecasting model \| Prognose \| Forecast \| Messung \| Measurement \| Kerninflation \| Zentralbank \| Central bank \| Wirtschaftsindikator \| Economic indicator