A Comparison of Forecast Errors Using Technical Analysis: An Experiment with ICICI Share Prices

Planners and decision makers in the present day, fast changing economic environment prefer educated guesses on the future movement of the business related variables. Forecasting of macro and micro variables are increasingly being considered necessary for the decision makers. Several forecasting methods are available and forecasting for the short term as well as long term is easily done thanks to the present development in statistical packages and high speed computers. Researchers often use forecast errors to evaluate the efficiency of the forecasting methods. The present study is an attempt in this regard. It explains the meaning and relevance of statistical/technical analysis in forecasting share prices in the stock market in the short run. Forecast has been done for the weekly share price of ICICI Bank. The results obtained using three extrapolative statistical methods have been compared with the actual share prices of ICICI Bank in the forecast period.